Author Archives: Charles Lynn Bolin

About Charles Lynn Bolin

Lynn Bolin retired in June 2022 and is immensely enjoying the more relaxed lifestyle. He spends his extra time with family, studying the economy and investing, at the gym, exploring the parks, and tasting the culinary pleasures at the local restaurants and Farmer’s Markets. After spending over thirteen years working internationally, he is enjoying exploring nature closer to home. Lynn graduated with an Engineering degree from New Mexico Tech and an MBA from Eastern New Mexico University. He worked as a Technical Services Manager over engineering and other functions. He enjoys building investing models in his spare time and writes articles for Seeking Alpha.

Investor Life Cycle and Lessons Learned from Past Recessions

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I have made many mistakes investing and am an example that if one reflects upon their mistakes, they can recover. As George Santayana said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

I received assistance from Murray in writing this article.

In an AAII Newsletter, Warren Buffet’s mentor Benjamin Graham described individual investors as either “Defensive” or “Enterprising/Aggressive” based on how much “intelligent effort” they were willing or able to devote to investing. The Defensive Investor included professionals without much time and young investors without much investing experience.

In this article, I review Continue reading →

Bond Funds for a Recession and Falling Rates

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Bond investors think they’ve seen it all.

They are wrong about that. For people who first began investing in bonds within the past 4o years – say, since 1982 – the bond market must seem like a source of perpetual, reassuring, and unrelenting gain. Just chuck some cash into the Treasury market or investment-grade corporates, and voila! Instant wealth.

In that same period, global equity investors have been Continue reading →

Looking Beyond 2023 Investing – Lies and Statistics

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Mark Twain wrote in 1907, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The differences in opinion about soft or hard landings center on how trends are measured, data accuracy, revisions, seasonal adjustments, and which data to follow. I provide Chart #3 of what I am monitoring over the next six months as the story about soft or hard landings unfolds. Continue reading →

To Sell or Not to Sell? (REMIX, PQTAX, GPANX, COTZX)

By Charles Lynn Bolin

This is my annual assessment of the funds that I own and whether it makes sense to hold them with my annual outlook, as described in this month’s companion article. My outlook is “Risk Off” because of economic uncertainty, plus bonds are now paying an attractive yield. The funds assessed in this article exclude bond funds, individual stock, and American Century Advantis All Equity Markets (AVGE). As interest rates rose and stocks and bonds fell, I gradually sold my most volatile funds and bought short-term ladders of certificates of deposit and Treasuries to lock in higher yields. With interest rates higher, I now ask myself, would I rather own my remaining funds in my intermediate buckets or make four or five percent in safer investments? That is the question.

I use the “Bucket Approach” and have Fidelity Wealth Management manage my longer-term portfolios, which collectively resemble Continue reading →

One of a Kind: American Century Avantis All Equity Markets ETF (AVGE)

By Charles Lynn Bolin

My last article on Seeking Alpha suggested that value, international, small caps, and emerging markets would outperform over the coming years. David Snowball wrote “The Investor’s Guide to 2023: Three Opportunities to Move Toward” last month along the same lines and offers his insight into these asset classes along with some excellent funds. I follow the Bucket Approach, where some Buckets have similarities to Dr. Snowball’s “Terrified Investor,” “Exhausted Investor,” or “Enterprising Investor.” A Reader on Seeking Alpha asked my opinion about Continue reading →

Fortune favors the prudent

By Charles Lynn Bolin

(And by implication, frowns on celebrity endorsements)

Happy New Year! I wish everyone a prosperous 2023. It is that time of year again when investment companies, analysts, and pundits create outlooks for the coming year. The quote attributed to Dwight D. Eisenhower that “Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable,” is applicable as there are risks to the outlook, which is the first section in this article. The second section is my outlook and strategy for 2023. The final section is the outlook from the Federal Reserve, The Conference Board, and Vanguard. Links to other outlooks are included in the Appendix.

Thanks to the notice by David Snowball, I have become a premium subscriber to The Independent Vanguard Adviser. I use the Continue reading →

Worries About Inflation Giving Way to Recession

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I hope that Readers enjoyed their Thanksgiving as much as I did and wish everyone a safe and happy holiday season and a prosperous new year.

I expect this Santa Claus Rally will give way to a New Year’s hangover as investors start to anticipate a recession more than they fear inflation. On November 10th, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers was released to show the inflation rate increased by 7.76% from a year ago and 0.44% from the previous month which is still a high annual rate of 5.3%. The minutes of the November Federal Open Market Committee Meeting provide insights: Continue reading →

Federal Reserve Rate Hikes – The Next Nine Months

By Charles Lynn Bolin

2023 Sleeping Bears in Waiting

We are in a classic late stage of the business cycle with the Federal Reserve raising rates to reduce demand in order to control inflation. What is different this time is that the inflation is likely to be higher for longer because it is a global issue resulting from a combination of factors, including COVID-related supply chain disruptions and related stimulus, an extended period of low-interest rates and easy monetary policy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that, in addition to being a tragic loss of lives, also disrupted supply chains. I look at the base case of the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds (FF) target rate in November and December and holding the rate relatively constant next year. The next six to nine months are key to determining Continue reading →

Shining the Light into Black Box Funds

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Source: PublicDomainPictures.net

A reader on the Mutual Fund Observer Discussion Board asked “how do you feel about putting monies into funds that have a somewhat ‘black box’ dynamic to them…yes, they explain their positions but sometimes I wonder, how safe of an investment are some of these funds?”

For those not familiar with black box investing, Investopedia explains: “a black box is a device, system, or object which produces useful Continue reading →

Fidelity Actively Managed New Millennium ETF (FMIL), September 2022

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Since retiring two months ago, I purchased the actively managed Fidelity New Millennium ETF (FMIL) for diversification. It is one of four actively managed equity ETFs offered by Fidelity that has more than $50M in assets. My introduction to FMIL came from an article by Tezcan Gecgil, “3 Fidelity ETFs To Diversify Your Portfolio In August,” at Investing.com, in which she highlighted that FMIL has done relatively well year-to-date. I then read “ETF of the Week: Fidelity New Millennium ETF (FMIL)” by Aaron Neuwirth from VettaFi, formerly known as ETF Database, which summarizes a podcast by ETF Trends CEO Tom Lydon in “ETF of the Week” with Chuck Jaffe Continue reading →