In December 2024, we forecast chaotic markets. Even if you were broadly supportive of Mr. Trump’s policy direction, the fact remains that he has announced, altered, suspended, or cancelled tariffs more than 28 times in 2025, including pausing some tariffs within 24 hours of announcing that the suggestion he might pause tariffs was “fake news.” His desire to reduce federal spending was manifested in the decision to turn Elon Musk loose to ransack the government in search of a promised $1 trillion in savings. Bloomberg’s assessment: “100 days of DOGE: lots of chaos, not so much efficiency.” Continue reading
Author Archives: David Snowball
Launch Alert: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF
On March 26, 2025, T Rowe Price launched T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF (TCAL), the latest addition to its capital appreciation suite of funds and ETFs. The fund is managed by a six-person team with David Giroux in the lead. It posts an expense ratio of 0.34%.
The fund’s unique niche within the Capital Appreciation suite is its focus on “regular” income payouts. It will normally invest in equities with a covered call options strategy overlay. The equities will be Continue reading
Dynamic Alpha Macro (DYMIX)
Objective and strategy
The managers aspire to outperform the S&P 500 over meaningful time periods, while managing risk by blending non-correlated assets such as a discretionary global macro strategy with a portfolio of US equities. The portfolio has two components: a US equity component, which is executed by buying low-cost ETFs, and a macro-driven Futures Trading Strategy. Through rebalancing between these approaches, they hope to harness divergent performance drivers to create what they term “Dynamic Alpha.” The equity strategy divides its investments between growth, high-dividend, and broad market stocks. The Future Trading Strategy, executed by a trading adviser, provides exposure to over Continue reading
Braham’s Chaos-Resistant Fund Portfolio
Friend Lewis Braham, writing in Barron’s, offered “The Chaos-Resistant Fund Portfolio” on April 7, 2025. For those who have not seen Lewis’s essay, here’s a recap. He begins with a fairly stark warning that parallels ours:
Voters elected Trump specifically as a populist disrupter. He’s doing what they asked. While Democrats call Trump an autocrat for consolidating power in the executive branch, that’s largely irrelevant to Wall Street, as money managers have happily invested billions in authoritarian or quasi-authoritarian regimes … The problem now is Continue reading
April 1, 2025
Welcome to the April Mutual Fund Observer!
My mom used to say, “March sometimes comes in like a lion.” She never added, “and then it eats you.”
March, named for the God of War, strikes me for two reasons. First, it is the month that has encompassed a whole series of catastrophes in the financial markets and Continue reading
Ghost in the Machine: AI’s Verdict on AI Investing
AI has a presence in almost every aspect of modern life, from summarizing buyer responses on Amazon to working with radiologists to discover incipient tumors on scans. Few industries have been as anxiously vigilant on the subject as investment management. Increasingly, managers are relying on AI to do part of their work and, increasingly, they wonder if it could eventually replace them entirely. (Spoiler: quite possibly.)
Artificial intelligence (AI) has Continue reading
The Dry Powder Gang, 2025
“Put your trust in God, my boys, and keep your powder dry!”
Advice attributed to Oliver Cromwell, in the poem “Oliver’s Advice” (1834)
Here are three simple truths Continue reading
Launch Alert: GlacierShares Nasdaq Iceland ETF
On March 26, 2025, the GlacierShares Nasdaq Iceland ETF was launched. The ETF tracks the MarketVector Iceland Global Index. The Index tracks both Icelandic companies (54.5% of the index) and companies in other Nordic nations that have a substantial footprint in Iceland (13% Luxembourg, 11% Norway, 7% Switzerland … followed by the US and the Faroe Islands, about equally weighted). Iceland’s economy is heavily dependent on just a handful of industries: energy production, tourism, fishing, and smelting aluminum. (Smelt and smelting?)
The market cap of Iceland’s two stock exchanges, the main exchange and the small/midcap exchange, comes to Continue reading
March 1, 2025
Dear friends,
Welcome to the March issue of Mutual Fund Observer.
I am surprised, sometimes, at how much I now appreciate some of the stuff that I found most mindless and annoying in high school. (I’m still not there with Moby Dick; the whole idea of a monomaniacally obsessed old guy leading his Continue reading
The Climate Denial Profit Paradox: Why Infrastructure Investors Win When Governments Retreat
“We believe the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.” — New Yorker cartoon
When we published “Not Built for This: The Argument for Infrastructure Investing in an Unstable Climate” in January 2025, our thesis was straightforward: climate destabilization would drive urgent, massive infrastructure spending as aging systems fail under environmental pressures they were never designed to withstand. Just two months later, this argument has been dramatically reinforced—not despite, but because of aggressive federal climate policy rollbacks. The New York Times offered this assessment on Continue reading
