September 2012, Funds in Registration

By David Snowball

Congress All Cap Opportunity Fund

Congress All Cap Opportunity Fund will seek long term capital appreciation by, uh, buying stocks.  All Cap stocks. “The Fund’s investment premise is that market inefficiencies exist between fixed income and equity valuations which, if properly identified, can lead to investment opportunities which can be exploited.” One would think that their “investment premise” might lead them to be able to invest in either stocks or bonds (a la FPA Crescent) but no. They’ll mostly buy U.S. stocks, with a cap of 10% on international securities, although they may derive international exposure through other holdings. The investment minimum is $2000. The managers are Daniel Lagan and Peter Andersen, both employees of Congress Asset Management Company. Neither has experience in managing a mutual fund, but their private account composite ($30 million against their firm’s total AUM of $7 billion) has outperformed the all-stock Russell 3000 index for the past 1, 3, and 5 years. The expense ratio is 1% after a substantial waiver. There’s also a 1% redemption fee.

Congress Mid Cap Growth Fund

Congress Mid Cap Growth Fund will pursue growth by investing in U.S. midcap stocks. They define mid-caps as capitalizations between $1-5 billion. The plan is to invest in companies that “are experiencing or will experience earnings growth.” For reasons unclear to me, they limit their international investments to 10% of the portfolio. The managers are Daniel Lagan and Todd Solomon, both employees of Congress Asset Management Company. Neither has experience in managing a mutual fund, but their private account composite (also $30 million against their fund’s total AUM of $7 billion) has outperformed the Russell Mid-Cap Growth index for the past 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. The investment minimum is $2000. The expense ratio is 1% after a substantial waiver. There’s also a 1% redemption fee.

Drexel Hamilton Multi-Asset Real Return Fund

Drexel Hamilton Multi-Asset Real Return Fund will pursue total return, which is to say “returns that exceeds U.S. inflation over a full inflation cycle, which is typically 5 years.”  The fund will invest globally in both securities (including REITs) and other funds (including ETNs and ETFs).   It will mostly invest in other Drexel Hamilton funds, but also in TIPs and commodity-linked ETFs.  Moving a bit further in hedge fund land, they’ll also hedge “to help manage interest rate exposure, protect Fund assets or enhance returns.”   And, too, in “response to adverse market, economic or political conditions, or when the Adviser believes that market or economic conditions are unfavorable,” they may go to cash.  Andrew Bang of Drexel Hamilton will manage the fund.  Mr. Bang, a West Point graduate with an MBA from Cornell, was “a Vice President at AIG Global Investments and a Portfolio Manager in the pension group of GE Asset Management (GEAM), where he oversaw institutional clients’ investments in global and international equity portfolios in excess of $2.5 billion.”  The minimum initial investment is $5000.  The expense ratio will be 1.81% after waivers.

DMS India Bank Index Fund

DMS India Bank Index Fund will attempt to track the CNX Bank Index. The index includes the 12 largest Indian bank stocks, which comprise 90% of the market cap of the Indian bank sector. The fund will seek to own all of the stocks in the index, rather than engaging in sampling or the use of derivatives. The fund will be managed by Peter Kohli, CEO of DMS Advisors.  The minimum initial investment will be $1500. Expenses are estimated at 0.96%, with the caveat that the fund might have to pay Indian capital gains taxes in which case the expenses would be higher. If you’re really curious, details about the index are available here.

Dreman Domestic Large Cap Over-Reaction Fund

Dreman Domestic Large Cap Over-Reaction Fund will seek high total return by investing in undervalued US large cap stocks. They intend to use “quantitative screening process to identify overlooked large cap companies with low price-to-earnings ratios, solid financial strength and strong management, that are selling below their intrinsic value and that pay relatively high dividends.” The fund will be managed by a small team headed by the legendary David Dreman. The fund’s global stock sibling, Dreman Market Over-Reaction (DRAQX), has been sort of a dud. That said, Dreman is revered. The expense ratio for “A” class shares, which have a 5.75% front load, will be 1.25% after waivers. The minimum invest is $2500 with a high $1000 minimum subsequent investment.

ING Strategic Income

ING Strategic Income “A” class shares, will seek “a high level of current income,” and perhaps a bit of capital growth. It will be a fund of income-oriented funds. They will have asset allocation targets, to which the managers make tactical adjustments.  They do not, however, seem to reveal what those targets are. The fund will be managed by three ING employees (Christine Hurtsellers, Michael Mata and Matthew Toms), who previously worked for, oh, Freddie Mac, Putnam, Lehman Brothers and (the bright spot) Calamos and Northern. The minimum investment will be $1000, reduced to $250 for IRAs. It has a 2.5% front load, making it a sort of “low-load” fund. Expenses have not yet been set. Absent a disclosure of the asset allocation, publication of low expenses and access to a load-waived share class, I’m unclear on why the fund is attractive.

Jacobs | Broel Value Fund

Jacobs | Broel Value Fund will seek long-term capital appreciation. They plan a 15-20 stock portfolio, selected according to their “value-contrarian investment philosophy” (which, frankly, looks like everyone else’s). They can invest in preferred shares and convertible securities, as well as common stocks, ETFs and closed-end funds. The managers will be Peter Jacobs, President and Chief Investment Officer of Jacobs | Broel Asset Management, and Jesse Broel, their Chief Operating Officer.  Both have worked a lot with the Ragen MacKenzie division of Wells Fargo. Neither seems to have experience in running a mutual fund.  $5000 investment minimum, reduced to $1000 for tax-advantaged accounts and those with AIPs. The expense ratio will be 1.48% and there will be a 2% redemption fee.

Matisse Discounted Closed-End Fund Strategy

Matisse Discounted Closed-End Fund Strategy will pursue long-term capital appreciation and income through buying “closed-end funds which pay regular periodic cash distributions, the interests of which typically trade at substantial discounts relative to their underlying net asset values.” They intend to be “globally balanced” and to hold 30-90 closed-end funds. The managers will be Bryn Torkelson, Eric Boughton, and Gavin Morton of Deschutes Portfolio Strategies, LLC.  Mr. Torkelson is their founder and Chief Investment Officer. In an interesting twist, the prospectus directly compares their separate account composite to the performance of RiverNorth Core Opportunity (RNCOX) and several other CEF-focused mutual funds. They modestly outperform RNCOX until you add in their management fees, which the performance table excludes.  Then they modestly trail RNCOX. The minimum initial investment will be $1000. The projected expense ratio is 2.68% after waivers.  There’s also a 2% redemption fee on shares held fewer than 60 days.

SPDR SSgA Ultra Short Term Bond, Conservative Ultra Short Term Bond and Aggressive Ultra Short Term Bond

SPDR SSgA Ultra Short Term Bond, Conservative Ultra Short Term Bond  and Aggressive Ultra Short Term Bond will be three actively-managed ETFs. Each seeks to produce “income consistent with preservation of capital through short duration high quality investments” but they do so with slightly different degrees of aggressiveness. Tom Connelley and Maria Pino, both Vice Presidents of SSgA FM and Senior Portfolio Managers for their U.S. Cash Management group, will manage the funds. The expenses have not yet been announced and, being ETFs, there is no investment minimum.

Wasatch Emerging Markets Select

Wasatch Emerging Markets Select fund will pursue long term growth. It will be an all-cap fund holding 30-50 stocks, and the prospectus describes it as non-diversified. The managers will be Ajay Krishnan, who also manages Ultra Growth, Emerging India and Global Opportunities, and Roger Edgly, who manages International Growth, International Opportunities, Emerging Markets Small Cap, Global Opportunities and Emerging India. (Overstretched, one wonders). The initial minimum purchase is $2000 for regular and IRA accounts, $1000 for accounts with AIPs and Coverdell Education Savings Accounts. The expenses have not yet been set. There will be a 2% redemption fee on shares held fewer than 60 days.

August 1, 2012

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the Summer Break edition of the Mutual Fund Observer. I’m writing from idyllic Ephraim, Wisconsin, a beautiful little village in Door County on the shores of Green Bay. Here’s a quick visual representation of how things are going:

Thanks to Kathy Glasnap, a very talented artist who has done some beautiful watercolors of Door County, for permission to use part of one of her paintings (“All in a Row”). Whether or not you’ve (yet) visited the area, you should visit her gallery online at http://www.glasnapgallery.com/

Chip, Anya, Junior and I bestirred ourselves just long enough to get up, hit <send>, refill our glasses with sangria and settle back into a stack of beach reading and a long round of “Mutual Fund Truth or Dare.”  (Don’t ask.)

In celebration of the proper activities of summer (see above), we offer an abbreviated Observer.

MFO in Other Media: David on Chuck Jaffe’s MoneyLife Radio Show

I’ll be the first to admit it: I have a face made for radio and a voice made for print.  Nonetheless, I was pleased to make an appearance on Chuck Jaffe’s MoneyLife radio show (which is also available as a podcast).  I spoke about three of the funds that we profiled this month, and then participated in a sort of “stump the chump” round in which I was asked to offer quick-hit opinions in response to listener questions.

Dodge & Cox Global Stock (DODWX) for Rick in York, Pa.  It’s easy to dismiss DODWX if you’ve give a superficial glance at its performance.  The fund cratered immediately after launch in 2008 when the managers bought financial stocks that were selling at a once-in-a-generation price only to see them fall to a once-in-a-half-century price.  But those purchases set up a ferocious run in 2009.  It was hurt in 2011 by an oversized emerging markets stake which paid off handsomely in the first quarter of 2012.  It’s got a great management team and an entirely sensible investment discipline.  It’ll be out-of-step often enough but will, in the long run, be a really good investment.

Fidelity Emerging Markets (FEMKX) for Brad in Cazenovia, NY.  My bottom line was “it’s not as bad as it used to be, but there’s still no compelling reason to own it.”  If you’re investing with Fido, their new Fidelity Total Emerging Markets (FTEMX) is a more much intriguing option.

Leuthold Core Investment (LCORX) for Scott in Redmond, Ore. This was the original go-anywhere fund, born of Leuthold’s sophisticated market analysis service.  Quant driven, quite capable of owning pallets of lead or palladium.  Brilliant for years but, like many computer-driven funds, largely hamstrung lately by the market’s irrational jerks and twitches.  If you anticipate a return to a more-or-less “normal” market where returns aren’t driven by fears of the Greeks, it’s likely to resume being an awfully attractive, conservative holding.

Matthews Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX) for Robert in Steubenville, Ohio.  With Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX), this fund has the best risk-return profile of any Asian-focused fund.  The manager invests in strong companies with lots of free cash flow and a public commitment to their dividend.  What it lacks in MACSX’s bond and convertibles holdings, it makes up for in good country selection and stock picking.  If you want to invest in Asia, Matthews is the place to start.

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) for Dennis in Strongsville, Ohio. PRWCX usually holds about 65% of the portfolio in large, domestic dividend-paying stocks and a third in other income-producing securities.  Traditionally the fund held a lot of convertible securities though David Giroux, manager since 2006, has held a bit more stock and fewer converts.  The fund has lost money once in a quarter century and a former manager chuckled over the recollection that Price’s internal allocation models kept coming to the same conclusion: “invest 100% in PRWCX.”

MFO in Other Media: David on “The Best Fund for the Next Six Months … and Beyond”

Early in July, John Waggoner wrote to ask for recommendations for “the remainder of 2012.”  Answers from three “mutual fund experts” (I shudder) appear in John’s July 5th column.  Dan Wiener tabbed PrimeCap Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX) and Jim Lowell picked Fidelity Total Emerging Markets (FTEMX).  I highlighted the two most recent additions to my non-retirement portfolio:

RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX), which I described as “one of the most misunderstood funds I cover. It functions as a cash management fund for me — 3% to 4% returns with (so far) negligible volatility. Its greatest problem is its name, which suggests that it invests in short-term, high-yield bonds (which, in general, it doesn’t) or that it has the risk profile of a high-yield fund (ditto).”

David Sherman, the manager, stresses that RPHYX “is not an ATM machine.”  That said, the fund returned 2.6% in the first seven months of 2012 with negligible volatility (the NAV mostly just drops with the month-end payouts).  That’s led to a Sharpe ratio above 3, which is simply great.  Mr. Sherman says that he thinks of it as a superior alternative to, say, laddered bonds or CDs.  While in a “normal” bond market this will underperform a diversified fund with longer durations, in a volatile market it might well outperform the vast majority.

Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX), driven by the fact that Mr. Foster “performed brilliantly at Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX), which was the least volatile (hence most profitable) Asian fund for years. With Seafarer, he’s able to sort of hedge a MACSX-like portfolio with limited exposure to non-Asian emerging markets. The strategy makes sense, and Mr. Foster has proven able to consistently execute it.”

SFGIX has substantially outperformed the average emerging-Asia, Latin America and diversified emerging markets fund in the months since its launch, though it trails MACSX.  The folks on our discussion board mostly maintain a “deserves to be on the watch-list” stance, based mostly on MACSX’s continued excellence.  I’m persuaded by Mr. Foster’s argument on behalf of a portfolio that’s still Asia-centered but not Asia exclusively.

Seafarer Overseas Piques Morningstar’s Interest

One of Morningstar’s most senior analysts, Gregg Wolper, examined the struggles of two funds that should be attracting more investor interest than they are, in “Two Young Funds Struggle to Get Noticed” (July 31, 2012).

One is TCW International Small Cap (TGICX) which launched in March 2011.  It’s an international small-growth fund managed by Rohit Sah.  Sah had “an impressive if volatile record” in seven years at Oppenheimer International Small Company (OSMAX).  The problem is that Sah has a high-volatility strategy even by the standards of a high-volatility niche, which isn’t really in-tune with current investor sentiment.  Its early record is mostly negative which isn’t entirely surprising.  No load, $2000 investment minimum, 1.44% expense ratio.

The other is Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income (SFGIX).  Wolper recognizes Mr. Foster’s “impressive record” at Matthews and his risk-conscious approach to emerging markets investing.  “His fund tries to cushion the risks of emerging-markets investing by owning less-volatile, dividend-paying stocks and through other means, and in fact over the past three months it has suffered a much more moderate loss than the average diversified emerging-markets fund.”  Actually, from inception through July 31 2012, Seafarer was up by 0.4% while the average emerging markets fund had lost 7.4%.

Mr. Wolper concludes that when investors’ appetite for risk returns, these will both be funds to watch:

At some point, though, certain investors will be looking for a bold fund to fill a small slot in their portfolio. Funds with modest asset bases have more flexibility than their more-popular rivals to own smaller, less-liquid stocks in less-traveled markets should they so choose. For that reason, it’s worth keeping these offerings in mind. Their managers are accomplished, and though there are caveats with each, including their cost, they feature strategies that are not easy to find at rival choices.

It’s What Makes Yahoo, Yahoo

Archaic, on the Observer’s discussion board, complained, “When I use Yahoo Finance to look at a particular fund … [its] Annual Total Return History, the history is complete through 2010 but ends there. No 2011. Anyone know why?”

The short answer is: because it’s Yahool.  This is a problem that Yahoo has known about for months, but has been either unable or unmotivated to correct.  Here’s their “Help” page on the problem:

I added a large arrow only because I don’t know how to add either a flashing one or an animated GIF of a guy slapping himself on the forehead.  Yahoo has known about this problem for at least three months without correcting it.

Note to Marissa Mayer, Yahoo’s new CEO: Yahoo describes itself as “a company that helps consumers find what they are looking for and discover wonders they didn’t expect.”  In this case, we’re looking for 2011 data and the thing we wonder about is what it says about Yahoo’s corporate culture and competence.  Perhaps you might check with the folks at Morningstar for an example of how quickly and effectively a first-rate organization identifies, addresses and corrects problems like this.

Too Soon Gone: Eric Bokota and FPA International Value (FPIVX)

I had the pleasure of a long conversation with Eric Bokota at the Morningstar Investment Conference in June.  I was saddened to hear that events in his private life have obliged him to resign from FPA.  The FPA folks seemed both deeply saddened and hopeful that one day he’ll return.  I wish him Godspeed.

Four Funds That Are Really Worth Your Time (even in summer!)

Each month the Observer provides in-depth profiles of between two and four funds.  Our “Most Intriguing New Funds” are funds launched within the past couple years that most frequently feature experienced managers leading innovative newer funds.  “Stars in the Shadows” are older funds that have attracted far less attention than they deserve.  This month’s lineup features three newer funds and an update ING Corporate Leaders, a former “Star in the Shadows” whose ghostly charms have attracted a sudden rush of assets.

FPA International Value (FPIVX): led by Oakmark alumnus Pierre Py, FPA’s first new fund in almost 30 years has the orientation, focus, discipline and values to match FPA’s distinguished brand.

ING Corporate Leaders Trust (LEXCX): the ghost ship of the fund world sails into its 78th year, skipperless and peerless.

RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity Fund (RLSFX): RiverPark’s successful hedge, now led by a guy who’s been getting it consistently right for almost two decades, is now available for the rest of us.

The Cook and Bynum Fund (COBYX): you think your fund is focused?  Feh! You don’t know focused until you’ve met Messrs. Cook and Bynum.

The Best Small Fund Websites: Seafarer and Cook & Bynum

The folks at the Observer visit scores of fund company websites each month and it’s hard to avoid the recognition that most of them are pretty mediocre.  The worst of them post as little content as possible, updated as rarely as possible, signaling the manager’s complete disdain for the needs and concerns of his (and very rarely, her) investors.

Small fund companies can’t afford such carelessness; their prime distinction from the industry’s bloated household names is their claim to a different and better relationship with their investors.  If investors are going to win the struggle against the overwhelming urge to buy high and leave in a panic, they need a rich website and need to use it.  If they can build a relationship of trust and understanding with their managers, they’ve got a much better chance of holding through rough stretches and profiting from rich ones.

This month, Junior and I enlisted the aid of two immensely talented web designers to help us analyze three dozen small fund websites in order to find and explain the best of them.  One expert is Anya Zolotusky, designer of the Observer’s site and likely star of a series of “Most Interesting Woman in the World” sangria commercials.  The other is Nina Eisenman, president of Eisenman Associates and founder of FundSites, a firm which helps small to mid-sized fund companies design distinctive and effective websites.

If you’re interested in why Seafarer and Cook & Bynum are the web’s best small company sites, and which twelve earned “honorable mention” or “best of the rest” recognition, the entrance is here!

Launch Alert: RiverNorth and Manning & Napier, P. B. and Chocolate

Two really good fund managers are combining forces.  RiverNorth/Manning & Napier Dividend Income (RNMNX) launched on July 18th.  The fund is a hybrid of two highly-successful strategies: RiverNorth’s tactical allocation strategy based, in part, on closed-end fund arbitrage, and Manning & Napier’s largely-passive dividend focus strategy.  Both are embedded in freestanding funds, though the RiverNorth fund is closed to new investors.  There’s a lively discussion of the fund and, in particular, whether it offers any distinct value, on our discussion board.  The minimum investment is $5000 and we’re likely to profile the fund in October.

Briefly Noted . . .

As a matter of ongoing disclosure about such things, I want to report several changes in my personal portfolio that touch on funds we’ve profiled or will soon profile.  In my non-retirement portfolio, I sold off part of my holdings of Matthews Asian Growth and Income (MACSX) and invested the proceeds in Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX).  As with all my non-retirement funds, I’ve established an automatic investment plan in Seafarer.  In my retirement accounts, I sold my entire position in Fidelity Diversified International (FDIVX) and Canada (FICDX) and invested the proceeds in a combination of Global Balanced (FGBLX) and Total Emerging Markets (FTEMX).  FDIVX has gotten too big and too index-like to justify inclusion and Canada’s new-ish manager is staggering around, and I’m hopeful that the e.m. exposure in the other two funds will be a significant driver while the fixed-income components offer some cushion.  Finally, also in my retirement accounts, I sold T. Rowe Price New Era (PRENX) and portions of two other funds to buy Real Assets Fund (PRAFX).  What can I say?  Jeremy Grantham is very persuasive.

SMALL WINS FOR INVESTORS

A bunch of funds have tried to boost their competitiveness by cutting expenses or at least waiving a portion of them.

Cohen & Steers Dividend Value (DVFAX) will limit fund expenses to 1.00% for A shares through June 2014.

J.P. Morgan announced 9 basis point cuts for JP Morgan US Dynamic Plus (JPSAX) and JP Morgan US Large Cap Core Plus (JLCAX).

Legg Mason capped expenses on Legg Mason BW Diversified Large Cap Value (LBWAX) at between 0.85% – 1.85%, depending on share class.

Madison Investment Advisors cuts fees on Madison Mosaic Investors (MINVX) by 4 bps, Madison Mosaic Mid Cap (GTSGX) by 10, and Madison Mosaic Dividend Income (BHBFX, formerly Balanced) by 30.

Managers is dropping fees for Managers Global Income Opportunity (MGGBX), Managers Real Estate Securities (MRESX), and Managers AMG Chicago Equity Partners Balanced (MBEAX) by 11 – 16 bps.

Alger Small Cap Growth (ALSAX) and its institutional brother reopened to new investors on Aug. 1, 2012.  It was once a really solid fund but it’s been sagging in recent years so your ability to get into it really does qualify as a “small win.”

CLOSINGS

Columbia Small Cap Value (CSMIX) has closed to new investors. For those interested, The Wall Street Journal publishes a complete closed fund list each month.  It’s available online with the almost-poetic name, Table of Mutual Funds Closed to New Investors.

OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLES

Just as a reminder, the distinguished no-load Marketfield (MFLDX) will become the load-bearing MainStay Marketfield Fund on Oct. 5, 2012.  The Observer profile of Marketfield appeared in July.

At the end of September, Lord Abbett Capital Structure (LAMAX), a billion dollar hybrid fund, will be relaunched as Lord Abbett Calibrated Dividend Growth, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks and new managers: Walter Prahl and Rick Ruvkun.  No word about why.

Invesco announced it will cease using the Van Kampen name on its funds in September.  By way of example, Invesco Van Kampen American Franchise “A” (VAFAX) will simply be Invesco American Franchise “A”.

Oppenheimer Funds is buying and renaming the five SteelPath funds, all of which invest in master limited partnerships and all of which have sales loads.  There was a back door into the fund, which allowed investors to buy them without a load, but that’s likely to close.

OFF TO THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY

BlackRock is merging its S&P 500 Index (MDSRX) and Index Equity (PNIEX) funds into BlackRock S&P 500 Stock (WFSPX).  And no, I have no idea of what sense it made to run all three funds in the first place.

DWS Clean Technology (WRMAX) will be liquidated in October 2012.

Several MassMutual funds (Strategic Balanced, Value Equity, Core Opportunities, and Large Cap Growth) were killed-off in June 2012.

Oppenheimer is killing off their entry into the retirement-date fund universe by merging their regrettable Transition Target-Date into their regrettable static allocation hybrid funds.  Oppenheimer Transition 2030 (OTHAX), 2040 (OTIAX), and 2050 (OTKAX) will merge into Active Allocation (OAAAX). The shorter time-frame Transition 2015 (OTFAX), 2020 (OTWAX), and 2025 (OTDAX) will merge into Moderate Investor (OAMIX).  Transition 2010 (OTTAX) will, uhhh … transition into Conservative Investor (OACIX). The same management team oversaw or oversees the whole bunch.

Goldman Sachs took the easier way out and announced the simple liquidation of its entire Retirement Strategy lineup.  The funds have already closed to new investors but Goldman hasn’t yet set a date for the liquidation.   It’s devilishly difficult to compete with Fidelity, Price and Vanguard in this space – they’ve got good, low-cost products backed up by sophisticated allocation modeling.  As a result they control about three-quarters of the retirement/target-date fund universe.  If you start with that hurdle and add mediocre funds to the mix, as Oppenheimer and Goldman did, you’re somewhere between “corpse” and “zombie.”

Touchstone Emerging Markets Equity II (TFEMX), a perfectly respectable performer with few assets, is merging into Touchstone Emerging Markets Equity (TEMAX). Same management team, similar strategies.

In a “scraping their name off the door” move, ASTON has removed M.D. Sass Investors Services as a subadvisor to ASTON/MD Sass Enhanced Equity (AMBEX). Anchor Capital Advisors, which was the other subadvisor all along, now gets its name on the door at ASTON/Anchor Capital Enhanced Equity.

Destra seems already to have killed off Destra Next Dimension (DLGSX), a tiny global stock fund managed by Roger Ibbotson.

YieldQuest Total Return Bond (YQTRX), one of the first funds I profiled as an analyst for FundAlarm, has finally ceased operations.  (P.S., it was regrettable even six years ago.)

In Closing . . .

Some small celebrations and reminders.  This month the Observer passed its millionth pageview on the main site with well over two million additional pageviews on our endlessly engaging discussion board (hi, guys!).  We’re hopeful of seeing our 100,000th new reader this fall.

Speaking of the discussion board, please remember that registration for participating in the board is entirely separate from registering to receive our monthly email reminder.  Signing up for board membership, a necessary safeguard against increasingly agile spambots, does not automatically get you on the email list and vice versa.

And speaking of fall, it’s back-to-school shopping time!  If you’re planning to do some or all of your b-t-s shopping online, please remember to Use the Observer’s link to Amazon.com.  It’s quick, painless and generates the revenue (equal to about 6% of the value of your purchases) that helps keep the Observer going.  Once you click on the link, you may want to bookmark it so that your future Amazon purchases are automatically and invisibly credited to the Observer. Heck, you can even share the link with your brother-in-law.

A shopping lead for the compulsive-obsessive among you: How to Sharpen Pencils: A Practical & Theoretical Treatise on the Artisanal Craft of Pencil Sharpening for Writers, Artists, Contractors, Flange Turners, Anglesmiths, & Civil Servants (2012).  The book isn’t yet on the Times’ bestseller lists, though I don’t know why.

A shopping lead for folks who thought they’d never read poems about hedge funds: Katy Lederer’s The Heaven-Sent Leaf (2008).  Lederer’s an acclaimed poet who spent time working at, and poetrifying about, a New York hedge fund.

In September, we’ll begin looking at the question “do you really need to buy a dedicated ‘real assets’ fund?”  T. Rowe Price has incorporated one into all of their retirement funds and Jeremy Grantham is increasingly emphatic on the matter.  There’s an increasing area of fund and ETF options, including Price’s own fund which was, for years, only available to the managers of Price funds-of-funds.

We’ll look for you.

RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity Fund (RLSFX), August 2012

By David Snowball

Objective and Strategy

The fund pursues long-term capital appreciation while managing downside volatility by investing, long and short, primarily in U.S. stocks.  The managers describe the goal as pursuing “above average rates of return with less volatility and less downside risk as compared to U.S. equity markets.” They normally hold 40-60 long positions in stocks with “above-average growth prospects” and 40-75 short positions in stocks representing firms with challenged business models operating in declining industries.   They would typically be 50-60% net long, though their “target window” is 20-70%.  They invest in stocks of all capitalizations and can invest in non-U.S. stocks but the managers do not view that as a primary focus.

Adviser

RiverPark Advisors, LLC. Executives from Baron Asset Management, including president Morty Schaja, formed RiverPark in July 2009.  RiverPark oversees the six RiverPark funds, though other firms manage three of them.  RiverPark Capital Management runs separate accounts and partnerships.  Collectively, they have $567 million in assets under management, as of July 31, 2012.

Manager

Mitch Rubin, a Managing Partner at RiverPark and their CIO.  Mr. Rubin came to investing after graduating from Harvard Law and working in the mergers and acquisitions department of a law firm and then the research department of an investment bank.  The global perspective taken by the M&A people led to a fascination with investing and, eventually, the opportunity to manage several strategies at Baron Capital.  Rubin also manages the RiverPark Large Cap Growth Fund and co-manages Small Cap Growth.  He’s assisted by RiverPark’s CEO, Morty Schaja, and Conrad van Tienhoven, a long-time associate of his and co-manager on Small Cap Growth.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

The managers and other principals at RiverPark have invested about $4.2 million in the fund, as of July 2012.  Mr. Schaja describes it as “our favorite internal fund” and object of “the greatest net investment of our own money.”

Opening date

March 30, 2012.  The fund started life as a hedge fund on September 30, 2009 then converted to a mutual fund in March 2012.  The hedge fund’s “investment policies, objectives, guidelines and restrictions were in all material respects equivalent to the Fund’s.”

Minimum investment

$1,000.

Expense ratio

1.75% for institutional class shares and 2.00% for retail class shares, after waivers, on assets of $46.4 million, as of July 2023. 

Comments

All long-short funds have about the same goal: to provide a relatively large fraction of the stock market’s long-term gains with a relatively small fraction of its short-term volatility.  They all invest long in what they believe to be the most attractively valued stocks and invest short, that is bet against, the least attractively valued ones.  Many managers imagine their long portfolios as “offense” and their short portfolio as “defense.”

That’s the first place where RiverPark stands apart.  Mr. Rubin intends to “always play offense.”  He believes that RiverPark’s discipline will allow him to make money, “on average and over time,” on both his long and short portfolios.  Most long-short managers, observing that the stock market rises more often than it falls and that a rising market boosts even bad stocks, expect to lose money in the long-term on their short positions even while the shorts offer important protection in falling markets.

How so?  RiverPark started with the recognition that some industries are in terminal decline because of enduring, secular changes in society.  By identifying what the most important enduring changes were, the managers thought they might have a template for identifying industries likely to rise over the coming decades and those most likely to decline.  The word “decade” here is important: the managers are not trying to identify relatively short-term “macro” events (e.g., the failure of the next Eurozone bailout) that might boost or depress stocks over the next six to 18 months.  Their hope is to identify factors which are going to lift up or grind down entire industries, year after year, for as far as the eye could see.

And that establishes a second distinction for RiverPark: they’re long-term investors who have been in the industry, and have been together, long enough (17 years so far) to learn patience.  They’re quite willing to short a company like JCPenney even as other investors frantically bid up the share price over the arrival of a new management team, new marketing campaign or a new pricing scheme.  They have reason to believe that Penney “is a struggling, sunset business attempting to adapt to . . . changes” in a dying industry (big mall-based department stores).  The enthusiasm of other investors pushed Penney’s stock valuation to 40-times earnings, despite the fact that “our research with vendors, real estate professionals, and consumers has produced no evidence to indicate that any of the company’s plans were actually working.  In fact, we have seen the opposite.  The pricing strategy has proven to be confusing, the advertising to be ineffective, and the morale at the company to be poor.”

Finally, they know the trajectory of the firms they cover.  The team started in small cap investing, later added large caps and finally long-short strategies.  It means that there are firms which they researched intensively when they were in their small cap growth products, which grew into contributors in the large cap growth fund, were sold as they became mature firms with limited growth prospects, and are now shorted as they move into the sunset.   This has two consequences.  They have a tremendous amount of knowledge from which to draw; Mr. van Tienhoven notes that they have records of every trade they’ve made since 1997.  And they have no emotional attachment to their stocks; they are, they tell me, “analysts and not advocates.”  They will not overpay for stocks and they won’t hold stocks whose prospects are no longer compelling.  They been known to “work on a company for 15 years that we love but that we’ve never owned” because the valuations have never been compelling.  And they know that the stocks that once made them a great deal of money as longs may inevitably become candidates for shorting, which will allow them to again contribute to the fund’s shareholders.

All of which is fine in theory.  The question is: can they pull it off in practice?

Our best clue comes from Mr. Rubin’s long public track record.  RLSFX is his eighth fund that he’s either managed or co-managed.  Of those, seven – dating back to 1995 – have met and in many cases substantially exceeded its benchmark either during his tenure or, in the case of current funds, from inception through the end of the first quarter of 2012.  That includes five long-only products and two long-short funds. At the point of its conversion to a mutual fund, the RiverPark Opportunity Fund LLC was only half as volatile as the S&P 500 whether measured by maximum drawdown (that is, the greatest peak to trough fall), downmarket performance or worst quarter performance.  The fund returned 14.31% from inception, barely trailing the S&P’s 14.49%. The combination of the same returns with a fraction of the volatility gave the fund an outstanding Sharpe ratio: 4.2%.  He is, it’s clear, quite capable of consistently and patiently executing the strategy that he’s described.

There are a couple potential concerns which investors need to consider.

  1. The expense ratio, even after waivers, is a daunting 3.5%.  About 40% of the expenses are incurred by the fund’s short positions and so they’re beyond the manager’s immediate control.
  2. The fund’s performance after conversion to a mutual fund is more modest than its preceding performance.  The fund gained 21% in the first quarter of 2012 while still a hedge fund, smashing its peer group’s 4.8% return.  In the four months since conversion, it leads its peers by a more modest 0.8%.  Mr. Rubin is intensely competitive and intensely aware of his fund’s absolute and relative performance.  He says that nothing about the fund’s operation changed in the transition and notes that no fund outperforms every quarter in every kind of market, but “we’ve never underperformed for very long.”

Bottom Line

Mr. Rubin is an experienced professional, working on a fund that he thinks of as the culmination of the 17 years of active management, research and refinement.  Both of his long-short hedge funds offered annual returns within a few tenths of a percent of the stock market’s but did so with barely half of the volatility.   Even with the drag of substantial expenses, RLSFX has earned a place on any short-list of managed volatility equity funds.

Fund website

RiverPark Long-Short /Opportunity Fund

Fact Sheet

[cr2012]

The Cook and Bynum Fund (COBYX), August 2012

By David Snowball

Objective and Strategy

COBYX pursues the long-term growth of capital.  They do that by assembling an exceedingly concentrated global stock portfolio.  The stocks in the portfolio must meet four criteria.

    • Circle of Competence: they only invest in businesses “whose economics and future prospects” they can understand.
    • Business: they only invest in “wide moat” firms, those with sustainable competitive advantages.
    • People: they only invest when they believe the management team is highly competent and trustworthy.
    • Price: they only buy shares priced at a substantial discount – preferably 50% – to their estimate of the share’s true value.

Within those confines, they can invest pretty much anywhere and in any amount.

Adviser

Cook & Bynum Capital Management, LLC, an independent, employee-owned money management firm established in 2001.  The firm is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.  It manages COBYX and two other “pooled investment vehicles.”  As of June 30, 2012, the adviser had approximately $220 million in assets under management.

Managers

Richard P. Cook and J. Dowe Bynum.  Messrs Cook and Bynum are the principals and founding partners of Cook & Bynum (are you surprised?) and have managed the fund since its inception. They have a combined 23 years of investment management experience. Mr. Cook previously managed individual accounts for Cook & Bynum Capital Management, which also served as a subadviser to Gullane Capital Partners. Prior to that, he worked for Tudor Investment Corp. in Greenwich, CT. Mr. Bynum also managed individual accounts for Cook & Bynum. Previously, he’d worked as an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs & Co. in New York.   They work alone and also manage around $140 million in two other accounts.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

As of September 30, 2011, Mr. Cook had between $100,000 and $500,000 invested in the fund, and Mr. Bynum had over $500,000 invested.  Between these investments and their investments in the firm’s private accounts, they have “substantially all of our investable net worth” in the firm’s investment vehicles.

Opening date

July 1, 2009.  The fund is modeled on a private accounts which the team has run since August 2001.

Minimum investment

$5,000 for regular accounts and $1,000 for IRA accounts.

Expense ratio

1.88%, after waivers, on assets of $82 million.  There’s also a 2% redemption fee for shares held less than 60 days.

Comments

I can explain what Cook and Bynum do.

I can explain how they’ve done.

But I have no comfortable explanation for how they’ve done it.

Messrs. Cook and Bynum are concentrated value investors in the tradition of Buffett and Munger.  They’ve been investing since before they were teens and even tried to start a mutual fund with $200,000 in seed money while they were in college.  Within a few years after graduating college, they began managing money professionally.  Now in their mid 30s, they’re on the verge of their first Morningstar rating which might well be five stars.

Their investment discipline seems straightforward: do what Warren would do.  Focus on businesses and industries that you understand, invest only with world-class management teams, research intensely, wait for a good price, don’t over-diversify, and be willing to admit your mistakes.

They are, on face, very much like dozens of other Buffett devotees in the fund world.

Their discipline led to the construction of a very distinctive portfolio.  They’ve invested in just eight stocks (as of 3/31/12) and hold about 30% in cash.  There are simply no surprises in the list:

Company Ticker Sector

% of Total Portfolio

Wal-Mart Stores WMT General Merchandise Stores

19.0

Microsoft MSFT Software Publishers

10.8

Berkshire Hathaway BRK/B Diversified Companies

10.3

Arca Continental SAB AC* MM Soft Drink Bottling & Distribution

8.8

Coca-Cola KO Soft Drink Manufacturing

5.2

Procter & Gamble PG Household/Cosmetic Products Manufacturing

5.0

Kraft Foods KFT Snack Food Manufacturing

4.9

Tesco TSCO Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores

4.9

American investors might be a bit unfamiliar with the fund’s two international holdings (Arca is a large Coca-Cola bottler serving Latin America and Tesco is the world’s third-largest retailer) but neither is “an undiscovered gem.”  With so few stocks, there’s little diversification by sector (70% of the fund is “consumer defensive” stocks) or size (85% are mega-caps).  Both are residues of bottom-up stock picking (that is, the stocks which best met C&B’s criteria were consumer-oriented multinationals) and are of no concern to the managers who remain agnostic about such external benchmarks. The fund’s turnover ratio is 25%, which is quite, if not stunningly, low.

Their performance has, however, been excellent.  Kiplinger’s (11/29/2011) reported on their long-term record: “Over the past ten years through October 31, 2011, a private account the duo have managed in the same way they manage the fund returned 8.7% annualized” which beat the S&P 500 by 6.4% per year.  COBYX just passed its third anniversary with a bang: its returns are in the top 1-5% of its large blend peer group for the past month, quarter, YTD, year and three years.  While the mutual fund trailed the vast majority of its peers in 2010, returning 11.8% versus 14.0% for its peers, that’s both very respectable and not unusual for a cash-heavy fund in a rallying market.  In 2011 the fund finished in the top 1% of its peer group and it was in the top 3% through the first seven months of 2012.

More to the point, the fund has (since inception) substantially outperformed Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.A).  It is well ahead of other focus Buffettesque funds such as Tilson Focus (TILFX) and FAM Value (FAMVX) and while it has returns in the neighborhood of Tilson Dividend (TILDX), Yacktman (YACKX) and Yacktman Focused (YAFFX), it’s less volatile.

Having read about everything written by or about the fund and having spoken at length with David Hobbs, Cook & Bynum’s president, I’m still not sure why they do so well.  What stands out from that conversation is the insane amount of fieldwork the managers do before initiating and while monitoring a position.  By way of example, the fund invested in Wal-Mart de Mexico (Walmex) from 2007-2012.  Their interest began while they were investigating another firm (Soriana), whose management idolized Walmex.  “We visited Walmex’s management the following week in Mexico City and were blown away … Since then we have made hundreds of store visits to Walmex’s various formats as well as to Soriana’s and to those of other competitors…”  They concluded that Walmex was “perhaps the finest large company in the world” and its stock was deeply discounted.  They bought.   The Walmex position “significantly outperformed our most optimistic expectation over the last six years,” with the stock rising high enough that it no longer trades at an adequate discount so they sold it.

In talking with Mr. Hobbs, it seems that a comparable research push is taking place in emerging Europe.  While the team suspects that the Eurozone might collapse, such macro calls don’t drive their stock selection and so they’re pursuing a number of leads within the zone.  Given their belief in a focused portfolio, Hobbs concluded “if we can find two or three good ideas, it’s been a good year.”

Potential investors need to cope with three concerns.  First, a 1.88% expense ratio is high and is going to be an ongoing drag on returns.  Second, their incessant travel carries risks.  In psychology, the problem is summed up in the adage, “seek and ye shall find, whether it’s there or not.”  In acoustical engineering, it’s addressed as the “signal-to-noise ratio.”  If you were to spend three weeks of your life schlepping around central Europe, perusing every mini-mart from Bratislava to Bucharest, you’d experience tremendous internal pressure to conclude that you’d gained A Great Insight from all that effort. Third, it’s not always going to work.  For all their care and skill, someone will slip Stupid Pills into their coffee one morning.  It happened to Donald Yacktman, a phenomenally talented guy who trailed his peers badly for three consecutive years (2004-06).  It happened to Bill Nygren whose Oakmark Select (OAKLX) crushed for a decade then trailed the pack, sometimes dramatically, for five consecutive years (2003-07).  Over 30 years it happens repeatedly to Marty Whitman at Third Avenue Value (TAVFX). And it happened to a bunch of once-untouchable managers (Jim Oelschlager at White Oak Growth WOGSX, Auriana and Utsch at Kaufmann KAUFX, Ron Muhlenkamp at Muhlenkamp Fund MUHLX) whose former brilliance is now largely eclipsed.  The best managers stumble and recover.  The best focused portfolio managers stumble harder, and recover.  The best shareholders stick with them.

Bottom Line

It’s working.  Cook and Bynum might well be among the best.  They’re young.  The fund is small and nimble.  Their discipline makes great sense.  It’s not magic, but it has been very, very good and offers an intriguing alternative for investors concerned by lockstep correlations and watered-down portfolios.

Fund website

The Cook & Bynum Fund.  The C&B website was recently recognized as one of the two best small fund websites as part of the Observer’s “Best of the Web” feature.

[cr2012]

FPA International Value Fund (FPIVX) – August 2012

By David Snowball

Objective and Strategy

FPA International Value tries to provide above average capital appreciation over the long term while minimizing the risk of capital losses.  Their strategy is to identify high-quality companies, invest in a quite limited number of them and only when they’re selling at a substantial discount to FPA’s estimation of fair value, and then to hold on to them for the long-term.  In the absence of stocks selling at compelling discounts, FPA is willing to hold a lot of cash for an extended period.  They’re able to invest in both developed and developing markets, but recognize that the bulk of their exposure to the latter might be achieved indirectly through developed market firms with substantial emerging markets footprints.

Adviser

FPA, formerly First Pacific Advisors, which is located in Los Angeles.  The firm is entirely owned by its management which, in a singularly cool move, bought FPA from its parent company in 2006 and became independent for the first time in its 50 year history.  The firm has 25 investment professionals and 66 employees in total.  Currently, FPA manages about $20 billion across four equity strategies and one fixed income strategy.  Each strategy is manifested in a mutual fund and in separately managed accounts; for example, the Contrarian Value strategy is manifested in FPA Crescent (FPACX), in nine separate accounts and a half dozen hedge funds.

Managers

Pierre O. Py.  Mr. Py joined FPA in September 2011. Prior to that, he was an International Research Analyst for Harris Associates, adviser to the Oakmark funds, from 2005 to 2010.  At this writing (July 30 2012), Mr. Py was looking for a couple of analysts to assist in running the fund.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

Mr. Py, his former co-manager Eric Bokota and FPA’s partners are the fund’s largest investors.  Mr. Bokota estimated that he and Mr. Py had invested about two to three times their annual salary in the fund.  That reflects FPA’s corporate commitment to “co-investment” in which “Partners invest alongside our clients and have a majority of their investable net worth committed to the firm’s products and investments. We encourage all other members of the firm to invest similarly.”

Opening date

December 1, 2011.

Minimum investment

$1,500, reduced to $100 for IRAs or accounts with automatic investing plans

Expense ratio

1.35% on assets of $8 million

Comments

Few fund companies get it consistently right.  By “right” I don’t mean “in step with current market passions” or “at the top of the charts every years.”  By “right” I mean two things: they have an excellent investment discipline and they treat their shareholders with profound respect.

FPA gets it consistently right.

That alone is enough to warrant a place for FPA International Value on any reasonable investor’s due diligence list.

What are the markers of getting it right?  FPA describes itself as a “absolute value investors.”  They simply refuse to buy overpriced assets, preferring instead to hold cash – even at negligible yields – rather than lowering their standards.  It’s not unusual for an FPA fund to hold 20 – 40% in cash, sometimes for several years.  That means the funds will sometimes post disastrous relative returns – for example, flagship FPA Capital (FPTTX) has trailed 98-100% of its peers three times in the past ten years – but their refusal to buy anything at frothy prices pays off handsomely for long-term investors (FPPTX has posted top-tier results for the decade as a whole).  That divergence between occasional short-term dislocations and long-term discipline leads to an interesting pattern in Morningstar ratings: while three of FPA’s four established stock funds earn just three stars (as of late July 2012), all three also earn Silver ratings which reflects the judgment of Morningstar’s analysts that these really are top-tier funds.

The fourth fund, Steve Romick’s FPA Crescent (FPACX), earns both five stars and a Gold analyst rating.

Like the other FPA funds, FPA International Value is looking to buy world-class companies at substantial discounts.

We always demand that our investments meet the following criteria:

  1. High quality businesses with long-term staying power.
  2. Overall financial strength and ability to weather market dislocations.
  3. Management teams that allocate capital in a value creative manner.
  4. Significant discount to the intrinsic value of the business.

The managers will follow a good company for years if necessary, waiting for an opportunity to purchase its stock at a price they’re willing to pay.  Founding co-manager Eric Bokota said that they’d purchase if the discount to fair value was at least 33% but would begin “lightening up” on the position while the discount narrowed to 17%; that is, they buy deeply discounted stocks and begin to sell modestly discounted ones.

Mr. Bokota argues that the long-term success of the strategy rises as market volatility rises.  First, the managers have been assessing possible purchase targets for years, in many cases.  Part of that assessment is how corporate management handles “market dislocations.”  Bokota’s argument is that short-term dislocations strengthen the best companies by giving them the opportunity to acquire less-seasoned competitors or to acquire market share from them.  Second, their willingness to hold cash (around 22% of the portfolio, as of the end of July 2012) means that they have the resources to act when the time is right and an automatic cushion when the time isn’t.

Bokota holds that the fund has four competitive distinctions:

  1. It holds stocks of all sizes, from $400 million to multinational mega-caps
  2. It holds cash rather than lower quality or higher cost stocks
  3. It maintains its absolute value orientation in all markets
  4. It is unusually concentrated, with a target of 25-35 names in the portfolio.  As of late July, the portfolio is just below 25 names.  That’s consistent in line with Mr. Bokota’s observation that “anything north of 15 to 20 names” offers about as much diversification benefit as you’re going to get.

The fund’s early performance (top 1% of its peer group for the first seven months of 2012 with muted volatility) is entirely encouraging.  That said, there are three reasons for caution:

First, the management team is still evolving.  The fund launched in December 2011 with two co-managers, Eric Bokota and Pierre Py.  Both were analysts at Harris/Oakmark and they shared responsibility for the portfolio.  They were not supported by any research analysts, which Bokota described as a manageable arrangement because their universe of investable stocks is quite small and both he and Py loved research.  In July 2012, Mr. Bokota suddenly resigned for pressing personal reasons.  Py and FPA immediately began a search for two analysts, one of whom spokesman Ryan Leggio described as “a senior analyst.”  Their hope was to have the matter settled by the end of the summer, but the question was open at the time of this writing.

Second, this is the manager’s first fund.  While Mr. Py doubtless excelled as a member of Oakmark’s well-respected analyst corps, he has not previously been the lead guy and hasn’t had to deal with the demands of marketing and of fickle investors.

Third, FPA’s discipline lends itself to periods of dismal relative performance especially during sharply rising markets.  Sadly, rising markets are when investors are most willing to check portfolios daily and most likely to dump what they perceive to be “laggards.”  Investors with relatively high turnover fund portfolio (folks who “actively manage” their portfolios by trading funds in search of what’s hot) are likely to be poorly served by FPA’s steady discipline.

Bottom Line

FPA lends a fine pedigree to this fund, their first new offering in almost 20 years (they acquired Crescent in the early 1990s) and their first new fund launch in almost 30.  While the FPIVX team has considerable autonomy, it’s clear that they also believe passionately in FPA’s absolute value orientation and are well-supported by their new colleagues.  While FPIVX certainly will not spend every year in the top tier and will likely spend some years in the bottom one, there are few with better long-term prospects.

Fund website

FPAInternationalValue

[cr2012]

August 2012, Funds in Registration

By David Snowball

Dreyfus ACWI Ex-U.S. Index Fund

Dreyfus ACWI Ex-U.S. Index Fund seeks to match the performance of the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Ex-U.S. Index (MSCI ACWI Ex-US Index). The fund’s portfolio managers, Thomas J. Durante, Karen Q. Wong and Richard A. Brown, select portfolio investments for the fund using a “sampling” process so that the securities, market capitalizations, country and industry weightings and other fundamental benchmark characteristics of the fund’s portfolio are similar to those of the MSCI ACWI Ex-US Index as a whole. The fund may enter into futures contracts and other financial instruments to manage its short-term liquidity or as a substitute for comparable market positions in the securities included the MSCI ACWI Ex-US Index. The expense ratio has not yet been set. The minimum initial investment is $2,500 for investor shares, with a $100 minimum for subsequent investments.

Huntington Longer Duration Fixed Income Fund

Huntington Longer Duration Fixed Income Fund seeks total return from a non-diversified portfolio of longer duration fixed income instruments. They can invest in securities issued by various U.S. and non-U.S. public- or private-sector entities, though only 20% can be in non-dollar-denominated issues.  They can also hedge their currency exposure.   The average portfolio duration equals the Barclays Capital Long Term Government/Credit Index, plus or minus two years.   Kirk Mentzer leads their management team. Expense ratio 1.08%, no redemption fee. The minimum initial purchase for the Fund’s Trust Shares is $1,000.

Icon Opportunities Fund

Icon Opportunities Fund seeks capital appreciation by investing in U.S. small cap stocks that are “underpriced relative to value” (as opposed to “overpriced relative to coffee”?).  Dr Craig Callahan, Founder, President and Chairman of the Investment Committee, and Scott Callahan, are the Portfolio Managers.  Expense ratio 1.50%, no redemption fee. The minimum initial investment is $1,000.

KKR Alternative High Yield Fund

KKR Alternative High Yield Fund seeks to generate an attractive total return consisting of a high level of current income and capital appreciation. The fund will invest in a portfolio of fixed-income investments, including high yield bonds, notes, debentures, convertible securities and preferred stock, with the potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns. The Adviser seeks to identify and capture discounts or premiums over purchase price in response to changes in market environments and credit events. The majority of the Fund’s investments are expected to be in fixed-income instruments issued by U.S. companies, but the Fund may, from time to time, be invested outside the United States, including investments in issuers located in emerging markets. The Fund will not invest more than 30% of its total assets in non-U.S. dollar-denominated securities or instruments issued by non-U.S. issuers that are not publicly traded in the United States. The Fund may also invest in loans and loan participations. The Fund may seek to obtain market exposure to the securities and instruments in which it invests by investing in ETFs and may invest in various types of derivatives, including swaps, futures and options, and structured products in pursuing its investment objective or for hedging purposes. The Fund is co-managed by Erik A. Falk, Frederick M. Goltz, Christopher A. Sheldon and William C. Sonneborn. Expenses and minimum initial investments have not yet been determined.

Scout Emerging Markets Fund

Scout Emerging Markets Fund seeks long-term growth by investing in emerging market stocks.  For their purposes, e.m. stocks include firms domiciled in developed markets “that derive a majority of their revenue from emerging market countries” and as well those in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index. They’ll try to remain diversified by country and industry, but market events might force them to be less so. Mark G. Weber, a former Morningstar equity analyst who co-managed Scout International Discovery, leads the management team. Expense ratio 1.40%, no redemption fee. Minimum initial investment is $1000 for standard accounts and $100 for IRAs.

TIAA-CREF Social Choice Bond Fund

TIAA-CREF Social Choice Bond Fund seeks a favorable long-term total return while preserving capital and giving special consideration to certain social criteria. The Fund primarily invests in a broad range of investment-grade bonds and fixed-income securities, but may also invest in other fixed-income securities, including those of non-investment grade quality. Fund investments are subject to certain environmental, social and governance (“ESG”) screening criteria provided by a vendor of the Fund, MSCI, Inc. The ESG evaluation process generally favors corporate issuers that are: (i) strong stewards of the environment; (ii) committed to serving local communities where they operate and to human rights and philanthropy; (iii) committed to higher labor standards for their own employees and those in the supply chain; (iv) dedicated to producing high-quality and safe products; and (v) managed in an exemplary and ethical manner. Additionally, Advisors targets 10% of the Fund’s assets to be invested in fixed-income instruments that reflect proactive social investments that provide direct exposure to socially beneficial issuers and/or individual projects such as: affordable housing, community and economic development, renewable energy and climate change, and natural resources. The fund will be managed by Stephen M. Liberatore, Joseph Higgins, and Steven Raab. The expense ratio for retail class investors is 0.75%, with a minimum initial investment of $2,000 for Traditional IRA, Roth IRA and Coverdell accounts and $2,500 for all other account types. Subsequent investments for all account types must be at least $100. There is no minimum initial or subsequent investment for Retirement Class shares offered through employer-sponsored employee benefit plans, with a 0.65% expense ratio.

Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund

Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund seeks to track the performance of the Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) 0-5 Year Index. The Fund attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the securities that make up the Index, holding each security in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the Index. The fund will be managed by Joshua C. Barrickman and Gemma Wright-Casparius. The expense ratio has not yet been set, but as a Vanguard fund can be expected to be low. The minimum initial investment is $3,000 for investor shares, with $100 minimum for subsequent investments.

Manager Changes, July 2012

By Chip

Because bond fund managers, traditionally, had made relatively modest impacts of their funds’ absolute returns, Manager Changes typically highlights changes in equity and hybrid funds.

Ticker Fund Out with the old In with the new Date
AAIEX American Beacon International Equity Gary Motyl passed away last month Cindy Sweeting and Antonio Docal were named as portfolio managers 7/12
BIBDX BlackRock Global Dividend Income No one, but … Andrew Wheatley-Hubbard joins the team as a comanager 7/12
BGORX BlackRock Global Opportunities Michael Carey is no longer manager Nigel Hart, managing director of BlackRock, will become comanager with the existing team of Ian Jamieson and Thomas Callan. 7/12
MMCIX BNY Mellon Small/Mid Cap No one, but … Alexander Budny III and Charles Trafton will be added as comanagers 7/12
CVARX Calamos Value No one, but … Three new managers, Jeff Miller, Ariel Fromer, and Tammy Miller, join the team. 7/12
SLMCX Columbia Seligman Communications & Information No one, but … Ajay Diwan is joining the management team of Paul Wick, Richard Parower, Vishal Saluja, and Sushil Wagle 7/12
CSMIX Columbia Small Cap Value I Stephen D. Barbaro will retire at the end of the year His comanager, Jeremy H. Javidi, assumed the role of lead manager on June 30, 2012, with John Barret continuing to comanage. 7/12
CTCAX Columbia Technology No one, but … Rahul Narang has joined lead manager, Wayne Collette. 7/12
CRISX CRM Mid Cap Value No one, but … Robert Rewey III has joined as a comanager 7/12
CRIAX CRM Small/Mid Cap Value No one, but … Jonathan Ruch has joined as a comanager 7/12
DLMAX Delaware Mid Cap Value No one, but … Steven Catricks, Kelley McKee, and Kent Madden, three equity analysts, have been promoted to comanagers 7/12
DEVLX Delaware Small Cap Value No one, but … Steven Catricks, Kelley McKee, and Kent Madden, three equity analysts, have been promoted to comanagers 7/12
DIGFX Dreyfus Basic US Mortgage Securities No one, but … Karen Gemmett has joined as a comanager. 7/12
DIAVX Dreyfus Inflation Adjusted Securities No one, but … Nate Pearson was added as a portfolio manager, joining comanagers Robert Bayston and David Horsfall 7/12
DRGIX Dreyfus US Treasury Intermediate Term No one, but … Nate Pearson, a current strategist with the firm, is a new comanager, with head manager Robert Bayston. 7/12
DRGBX Dreyfus US Treasury Long-Term No one, but … Nate Pearson, a current strategist with the firm, is a new comanager, with head manager Robert Bayston. 7/12
FPIVX FPA International Value Eric Bokota, in a surprise move, has stepped down as comanager and resigned from First Pacific Advisors. Comanager Pierre O. Py  remains as the sole manager but is looking for a senior analyst 7/12
FRBSX Franklin Balance Sheet Investment No one, but … Grace Hoefig joins the management team 7/12
FRVLX Franklin Small Cap Value Y. Dogan Sahin Steve B. Raineri joins a team that’s been in place since 1996 7/12
HFLAX Hartford Floating Rate Frank Ossino has left Wellington Management, the subadviser, and has stepped down as portfolio manager. Comanager, Michael Bacevich, remains. 7/12
HSFAX HSBC Frontier Markets No one, but … Chris Turner has joined Andrew Brudenell as a comanager 7/12
JNRAX John Hancock Natural Resources No one, but … RS Investment Management becomes a second subadvisor. 7/12
EPLPX MainStay Epoch U.S. Equity David Pearl will no longer be manager, as part of a larger shift in strategy, as well as a name change. Eric Sappenfield will join the management team of MainStay Epoch U.S. Equity Yield 7/12
MERGX Marsico Emerging Markets Joshua Rubin is among the latest group leaving. Munish Malhotra remains as the sole portfolio manager 7/12
MFCFX Marsico Flexible Capital Doug Rao is the latest of many departures. Jordan Laycob and Munish Malhotra will comanage. 7/12
MFOCX Marsico Focus Doug Rao is the latest of many departures. Tom Marsico and Coralie Witter remain. 7/12
MGRIX Marsico Growth Doug Rao is the latest of many departures. Tom Marsico and Coralie Witter remain. 7/12
MERDX Meridian Growth No one, but … Larry Cordisco, who left Meridian Value in 2011, returns to shore up the team of William Tao and Jamie England after Rick Aster’s death early this year. 7/12
MPXCX MFS Asia Pacific Ex Japan Robert W. Lau will be replaced by . . . . . . John J. Tsai and Sanjay Natarajan 7/12
OPTFX Oppenheimer Capital Appreciation No one, but … Michael Kotlarz  joined as comanager 7/12
OEQAX Oppenheimer Equity No one, but … Michael Kotlarz  joined as comanager 7/12
PIUIX PNC International Equity Brian Hopkinson and Paul Nestro Bin Xiao of Polaris Capital Management joined the team 7/12
PRACX Putnam Research Fund George Gianarikas Neil Desai, previously a partner at Crosslink Capital 7/12
TWAAX Thrivent Partner Worldwide Allocation No one, but … DuPont Capital Management will become the sixth subadvisor.  It’s a fine fund but really, six management teams for $600 million in assets? 7/12
USGNX USAA Government Securities Didi Weinblatt has retired Donna Baggerly will again be lead manager. 7/12
USAIX USAA Income Didi Weinblatt has retired Matt Freund and Julianne Bass will take over. 7/12
EKWAX Wells Fargo Advantage Precious Metals No one, but … Oleg Makhorine joins the team. 7/12

 

August 2012 – Small fund company websites

By Junior Yearwood

The mutual fund industry may be strangled by its own success.  Many of the most senior fund managers and investment officers at June’s Morningstar Investment Conference sang the same refrain: “As fund companies have grown to manage hundreds of billions, and sometimes trillions of dollars, something precious has been lost.  We talk more now about ‘accumulating assets’ than we do about ‘serving our funds’ shareholders.’” George Gatch’s poorly received defense of JP Morgan came down to this: “We’re not a massive financial behemoth (despite our $1.3 trillion in AUM).  We’re lots of agile little companies that just happen to get paid by the same guy.  Really.”

Oddly, when JP Morgan lost $9 billion on the botched “London Whale” trades, the explanation boiled down to this: “in a firm our size, it’s not possible to keep close tabs on every munchkin who has authority to execute multi-billion dollar trades.”

It took a year after the Lehman Brothers collapse for investigators to finally determine that Lehman was actually 3,000+ legally distinct entities.  And these are, by definition, the folks who control most of our money.

But there is an alternative, if only investors come to notice it.  There are small fund firms that are intensely focused on service, performance and shareholders.  Those funds face two special challenges: (1) getting noticed and building a client base and (2) keeping those clients when markets turn ugly.

Knowledge and trust are crucial to addressing both of those challenges. Lack of trust in your financial advisor or portfolio manager may cause you to terminate the relationship, sell at the wrong moment, and rush into some other ill-conceived relationship. This in turn may cause you to surrender some or all of your investments’ potential gains.

A good website is an important channel for trust-building. It might help you to understand the manager, the fund’s portfolio and strategy, and the larger universe within which the fund operates. It is an essential communication tool that can help to humanize a financial entity, and go some way towards leveling the playing field for the little guy.

Since small fund firms face especially great challenges in getting noticed and building a client base, we wanted to start by identifying who does the best job in creating a partnership or relationship between the individual investor and the professional manager.

For this month’s “Best Of” feature we are highlighting small fund company websites. We identified three dozen top-flight small mutual fund companies using the following criteria:

    • Three or fewer funds or under $1 billion in assets and
    • At least one of their funds had already been reviewed by the Observer or is scheduled for an upcoming review.

We turned to Anya Zolotusky and Nina Eisenman, two experts on web design and, in particular, fund web design, for guidance.

Nina Eisenman, guest expert.

Nina Eisenman

Eisenman Associates, nina@eisenman.com

Nina is the founder of FundSites, (fund-sites.com) a total website solution for small to med-sized mutual fund companies, and President of Eisenman Associates, a top graphic and web design agency for investment firms. Nina has been a featured presenter of The Small Funds Network, NYU’s Stern School of Business, the Harvard Club, and numerous professional seminars.  She is a member of the Mutual Fund Education Alliance (MFEA), The Small Funds Network (SFN), The National Investment Company Service Association (NICSA), Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA), Nation Investor Relations Institute (NIRI), and Women Presidents’ Organization. Nina has a Bachelor of Science degree from Barnard College.

 


Anya Zolotusky, guest expert

Anya Zolotusky

Darn Good Web Designazolotusky@yahoo.com

Anya designs, builds, and maintains websites for businesses and individuals of all kinds from mountain guides to do-gooder lawyers to mutual fund smartypants (David prefers curmudgeons). She began working on the web after getting mixed up with the wrong crowd at a start-up called MountainZone.com where she helped pioneer live cybercasts from uncomfortable places like Mt. Everest. With a bit of high altitude experience and a startling set of immunizations, she’s trekked Nepal several times and worked in Everest base camp with a NASA-like assortment of solar-powered satellite gear helping sponsored climbers stay in touch with their friends at CNN. She has climbed peaks in the Cascades, Russian Caucasus Range, and Peruvian Andes, most notably to the tops of Rainier and McKinley. Aside from her duties as a Web Ranger, she enjoys raising beef cattle, a few dilettante dairy goats and a handful of chickens near Seattle, WA. She spends a lot of time trying to outsmart her German Shepherd.

Anya and Nina generated a list of 14 characteristics of highly effective fund sites, which we were able to organize into three broad categories:

    • Design and presentation
    • Quality of content
    • Ease of navigation

We reviewed all of the sites.  Two websites stood out as exemplary while three others warranted honorable mentions. As is always the case we encourage and look forward to your feedback, let us know if you have a website that we missed and we will include it in an update.


Best Small Fund Website: Seafarer Funds

Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Investor is a diversified emerging markets fund that was established February 15 2012. The portfolio manager is Andrew Foster.

Design and Presentation

Seafarer takes the going back to basics approach with a website that is straightforward and efficient. The site “feels” safe. The company banner and logo with the picture of the boat sailing peacefully under dark skies go well with the soft colored fonts and the muted background. The site does not shout, it puts an arm around you and says don’t worry, we have it covered.   The san serif font is clean and easy to read.  Overall the design is solid and effective if unspectacular. The presentation is simple, straightforward and professional.

Content

There is a wealth of information at your fingertips and only a click or two away. We’ll note in particular that the analysis of the fund’s portfolio and performance is, by far, the most extensive and informative that we’re seen.  It’s complemented by Mr. Foster’s thoughtful, wide-ranging shareholder letters and, especially, his “Field Notes” which detail research findings from some of his international trips.  Content seems to be updated at least monthly. There is even a video interview of the portfolio manager.

Navigation

The website navigation is fast and easy and you never get lost. Mousing over one of the eight main navigation tabs (About Us) activates clear dropdown menus.  Each content page has helpful “resources” on the side.

Bottom Line

Seafarer offers near-flawless execution and a manageable wealth of information.  The manager’s “voice” comes through clearly.

Pros: Solid effective design and presentation, wide range of relevant content.

Cons: The muted simple design means that you are not likely to stay on the page for much longer than is necessary.


Best Small Fund Website: Cook and Bynum Fund

The Cook and Bynum Fund is a very concentrated stock fund that was established July 1 2009. The portfolio managers are Dowe Bynum and Richard Cook.

Design and Presentation

The Cook and Bynum Fund is perhaps the most visually appealing of all the websites we looked at this month.  Bright and colorful photographs on a white background and the smart company logo get your attention initially.  The professional layout maintains it. The feel of the homepage is both relaxing and corporate.  It is a good mix that has a very humanizing effect.

The most striking feature of Cook and Bynum’s site are the striking photographs.  There’s a panoramic photo in a slideshow about the top third of the page and three sharp images immediately below it.  The slideshow links to three interior stories and the other three photos each illustrate the gateway to a major portion of the site (Thoughts on Investing, C&B Notes, Travelogue).

Overall the design and presentation is excellent but there is a tendency to repeat information. For example the slide show is a collection of links that can be found on the drop down menus of the four category headers. The three sub headings below the slide show are also links that can be found in the four main categories. The travelogue is presented as a sub heading, a slide show link and a drop down menu item in Our Firm.

Content

Cook and Bynum’s content stands out.  Information about the fund’s performance and portfolio, while not exceptionally substantial, is well organized and readily accessible.  The site does an exceptional job of explaining the managers’ thought processes and distinctions, and of talking through the fieldwork that’s so important to their process. Sections such as How We Think, Why Are We Different? and Building our Portfolio are just some examples of a package that is well thought out and professionally compiled.

Navigation

The website’s navigation is simple and intuitive with just about any information you need is reachable in one or two clicks. Very effective use of webpage tabs  make it easy to get back to where you were before without the need to open links in a new page or browser tab. As stated above there is a tendency to be repetitive but for the most part the effect is of making content quickly accessible.

Bottom Line

This site has incredible visual appeal and does much more than others to help you get inside your managers’ heads.  If you want to understand how they think and why they act, the answer’s here.

Pros: Visually appealing, professionally done website that feels both corporate and social.

Cons: Can be a bit repetitive, Bookshelf is a bit over the top


Honorable mentions: Sites that Really Called to One of Us

Junior’s Pick

Wintergreen Fund

Wintergreen is a very well done site that provides quick easy access to relevant information, and does a good job at communicating the heart and soul of the company to existing customers and potential investors. The site is well designed with efficient navigation and little touches like adjustable font sizes for those who need it. Colors that match the Wintergreen brand and features like video built into the homepage make for a pleasant visual experience, and rounds off a very good offering.

Nina’s pick

Auxier Focus Fund  (Auxier is a client of mine but also the sort of fund that the Observer tracks, and I think their site played out particularly well)

Visitors to the Auxier Focus Fund Website, auxierasset.com, are greeted by the welcoming smile of portfolio manager Jeff Auxier, a smart tactic that humanizes the firm, which counts retail investors among its target audience. Other features Auxier provides for retail investors are the bold “Access Your Account” link for current investors and an “Open an Account” link for prospective investors. The home page content is kept fresh and relevant with Morningstar “Star” Ratings, Daily NAV performance data, “In the News” article headlines and teaser copy from Auxier’s latest Quarterly Letter. The Quarterly Letters are HTML pages, not just PDFS, so they are fully indexible by Google and other search engines. Visitors are invited to “Sign up to Receive our Quarterly Letter” — a powerful call-to-action that is often buried in fund websites. The site’s intuitive navigation and content such as “Differentiation” and “Investment Philosophy” and “Performance” make it easy for investors to do their research and learn what makes the Auxier Focus Fund unique.

Anya’s Pick

Tilson Funds

I  Love it. What’s not to love here? The clean look is smooth and relaxing. Use of good fonts, harmonious colors, and plenty of white space makes it easy to spend time here. Even the masthead seedling image, which could have gone bad in a number of ways, works great here. The navigation is well organized with everything where you’d expect it to be. They have some nice, techy elements like accordion drop-downs, but generally I like the calm, easy feel of the site. Just well done all around.

 


The Best of the Rest: The Top One Third of the Sites We Reviewed

Fund Score
(Design & Presentation/
Ease of Navigation/
Quality of Content)
Comments
(N = Nina’s comments, A = Anya’s comments)
Vulcan Value Fund 4/4/4 N: Timely fund info and “subscribe” should be on home page, letters could be HTML as well as PDF
A: Like it. Really I love it — the minimalist, super clean look works for me, as does the use of fussy fonts and lots of white space. The big problem though is that the drop-down subnav is so bad, at first I was certain this was some kind of technical issue. No design decision could be so deeply misguided, and yet, there it is. There are so many good ways to present the subnav on a target page, I wish Vulcan’s designers had picked just about any of them. Ditto for the weird, floating “Mutual Funds” and “Managed Accounts” buttons on the right. Great looking site, but the navigation feels like it was the idea of a client who really wanted it like that and wouldn’t let the designer talk them out of it.
Evermore Global Value Fund 4/4/3 N: Video of PM adds flavor. Could use market commentary.
A: Like it… don’t love it, but pretty good overall.
Bretton Fund 5/3/3 N:Minimalistic in a nice kind of way. Could use market commentary and not have links lead you out of site. Sign up call to action
A: Like it…The look is super clean, the nav is well organized, the fonts are fussy, and the general feel is great. I’m a huge fan of minimalist design, but this feels a bit like an ultra modern apartment with one black couch and a single chair neither of which are really for sitting. Would it kill them to add a touch of visual interest? Ok fine, to each their own, and really, it’s a great looking site. I just wouldn’t want to live there.
Queens Road Funds 3/4/3 N: Glossary and firm-specific imagery are nice touches but no fresh, non-performance content.
A: Like it… but don’t love it. The nav aesthetics could be better than underlines on mouse-over. The site looks good but not great. Just could be better. Generally pretty good though.
Al Frank Funds 3/3/3 N: A bit glitzy and hard to read. Reads like an agency wrote it. Could use market commentary.
A: Like it… Kind of love the look, though the use of Flash dampens my enthusiasm, and the look might be a little TOO matchy-matchy, By The Design School Rules…
RiverPark Funds 2/3/3 N: It would be better if quarterly commentaries were offered as HTML as well as PDFs.
A: Meh…but the better of the Meh’s — the look is not terrible. It’s just not that good. They could do a lot better with a little more design effort. I say time for a redesign.
SteelPath MLP Funds (though SteelPath has been purchased by Oppenheimer so the future of the site is unclear) 2/3/3 N: It would be better if quarterly commentaries were offered as HTML as well as PDFs. Good MLP insights and static content.
A: Meh. The homepage here feels cluttered to me and a bit like a template. I like the color blocks to divide up information, but really, they couldn’t think of anything for a sixth block in that bottom row? Or, say, stretch out those bottom two blocks so they span the width of the upper row? Someone just wasn’t trying there, but the rest of the site is pretty darn good.

 

July 1, 2012

By David Snowball

thermometer

photo by rcbodden on Flickr.

Dear friends,

“Summertime and the livin’ is easy”?

“Roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer,
Those days of soda and pretzels and beer”

“That’s when I had most of my fun back …
Hot fun in the summertime.”

“In summer, the song sings itself.”

What a crock.  I’m struck by the intensity of the summer storms, physical and financial.  As I write, millions are without power along the Eastern seaboard after a ferocious storm that pounded the Midwest, roared east and killed a dozen.  Wildfires continue unchecked in the west and the heat and drought in Iowa have left the soil in my yard fissured and hard.  Conditions in the financial markets are neither better nor more settled.  The ferocious last day rally in June created the illusion of a decent month, when in fact it was marked by a series of sharp, panicky dislocations.

I’m struck, too, by the ways in which our political leaders have responded, which is to say, idiotically.  Republicans continue to deny the overwhelming weight of climate science.  Democrats acknowledge it, then freeze for fear of losing their jobs.  And both sides’ approach to the post-election fiscal cliff is the same: “let’s get through the election first.”

It’s striking, finally, how rarely the thought “let’s justify being elected” seems to get any further than “let’s convince voters that the other side is worse.”

Snippets from MIC

I had the pleasure of attending the Morningstar Investment Conference in late June.  The following stories are derived from my observations there.  I also had an opportunity to interview two international value managers, David Marcus of Evermore and Eric Bokota of FPA, there.  Those interviews will serve as elements of an update of the Evermore Global Value profile and a new FPA International Value profile, both in August.

David Snowball at MIC, courtesy of eventtoons.com

BlackRock and the Graybeards

On Day One of the conference, Morningstar hosted a keynote panel titled “A Quarter-Century Club” in which a trio of quarter-centenarians (Susan Byrne, Will Danof and Brian Rogers) reflected in their years in the business.  All three seemed to offer the same cautionary observation: “the industry has lost its moral compass.”  All three referred to the pressure, especially on publicly traded firms, to “grow assets” as the first priority and “serve shareholders” somewhere thereafter.

Susan Byrne, chairman and founder of Westwood Management Corp., the investment advisor to the Westwood Funds, notes that, as a young manager, it was drilled into her head that “this is not our money.” It was money held in trust, “there are people who trust you (the manager) individually to take care for them.” That’s a tremendously important value to her but, she believes, many younger professionals don’t hear the lesson.

Will Danoff, manager of Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX), made a thoughtful, light-hearted reference to one of his early co-workers, George.  “George didn’t manage money and he didn’t manage the business.  His job, so far as I can tell, was to walk up to the president every morning, look him in the eye and ask ‘how are you going to make money today for our shareholders?’ You don’t hear that much anymore.”

Brian Rogers, CIO of T Rowe Price made a similar, differently nuanced point: “when we were hired, it was by far smaller firms with a sense of fiduciary obligation, not a publicly-traded company with an obligation to shareholders. Back then we learned this order of priorities: (1) your investors first, (2) your employees and then (3) your shareholders.” In an age of large, publicly-traded firms, “new folks haven’t learned that as deeply.”

As I talk with managers of small funds, I often get a clear sense of personal connection with their shareholders and a deep concern for doing right by them. In a large, revenue-driven firm, that focus might be lost.

The extent of that loss has been highlighted by some very solid reporting by Aaron Pressman and Jessica Toonkel of Reuters.   Pressman and Toonkel document what looks like the unraveling of BlackRock, the world’s largest private investment manager. In short order:

  • Robert Capaldi, senior client strategist for Chief Executive Laurence Fink, left.
  • Susan Wagner, a founding partner and vice chairman, announced her immediate retirement.  Wagner had overseen much of BlackRock’s growth-through-acquisition strategy which included purchase of Barclay’s Global Investors and Merrill Lynch’s funds, a total of $2.4 trillion in assets.
  • Chief equity strategist Boll Doll announced his retirement (at 57) as evidence began to surface that his and BlackRock’s long-time claim of “proprietary” investment models was false.
  • Star energy fund manager Daniel Rice resigned in the wake of criticism of his decision to invest substantial amounts of his shareholders’ money into a firm in which he had a personal, if indirect, stake.  He did so without notifying anyone outside of the firm.  BlackRock, reportedly, had no explanation for investors.

Insiders report to Reuters that “further senior-level changes” are imminent.

BlackRock’s plans to double its mutual fund business in the next 18 months by targeting RIAs remain in place.  Why double the business?  Whose interests does it serve?  BlackRock has demonstrated neither any great surplus of investment talent nor of innovative investment ideas, nor can they plausibly appeal (at $4 trillion of AUM) to “economies of scale.”

No, doubling their business is in the best interests of BlackRock executives (bonuses get tied to such things) and, likely, to BlackRock shareholders.  There’s no evidence for why RIAs or fundholders are anything more than tools in BlackRock’s incessant drive from growth.  The American essayist and critic Edward Abbey observed, “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”  And, apparently, of the publicly traded megacorp.

Advice from a Conservative Domestic Equity Manager: Go Elsewhere

The Quarter Century panel of senior started talking about the equity market going forward. They were uniformly, if cautiously, optimistic. Rogers drew some parallels to the economy and market of 1982. I liked Susan Byrne’s comments rather more: “It feels like 1982 when you believed that any rally was a trap, designed to fool me, humiliate me and keep me poor.” Mr. Danoff argued that global blue chips “have absolutely flat-lined for years,” and represent substantial embedded value. They argued for pursuing stocks with growing dividends, a strategy that will consistently beat fixed income or inflation.

In closing, Don Phillips asked each for one bit of closing advice or insight. Brian Rogers, T. Rowe Price’s CIO and manager of their Equity Income fund (PRFDX) offered these two:

1. it’s time to remember Buffett’s adage, “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

and

2. “take a look at the emerging markets again.”

That’s striking advice, given Mr. Rogers’ style: he’s famously cautious and consistent, invests in large dividend-paying companies and rarely ventures abroad (5% international, 0.25% emerging markets). He didn’t elaborate but his observation is consistent with the recurring theme, “emerging markets are beginning to look interesting again.”

Note to the Scout Funds: “See Grammarian”

The marketing slogan for the Scout Funds is “See Further.”  Uhhh .. no.  “Farther.”  In this usage, “further” would be “additional,” as in “see further references in the footnotes.”  Farther refers to distance (“dad, how much farther is it?”) which is presumably what would concern a scout.

Scout’s explanation for the odd choice: “One of our executives wanted ‘See Farther’ but discovered that some other fund company already used it and so he went with ‘See Further’ instead.”

I see.

No, I don’t.  First, I can’t find a record for the “see farther” motto (though it is plausible) and, second, that still doesn’t justify an imprecise and ungrammatical slogan.

Kudos to Morningstar: They Get It Right, and Make It Right, Quickly

In June I complained about inconsistencies in Morningstar’s data reports on expense ratios and turnover, and the miserable state of the Securities and Exchange Commission database.

The folks at Morningstar looked into the problems quite quickly. The short version is this: fund filings often contain multiple versions of what’s apparently the same data point. There are, for example, a couple different turnover ratios and up to four expense ratios. Different functions, developed by different folks at different times, might inadvertently choose to pull stats from different places. Mr. Rekenthaler described them as “these funny little quirks where a product somewhere sometime decided to do something different.” Both stats are correct but also inconsistent. If they aren’t flagged so that readers can understand the differences, they can also be misleading.

Morningstar is interested in providing consistent, system-wide data.  Both John Rekenthaler, vice president of research, and Alexa Auerbach in corporate communications were in touch with us within a week. Once they recognized the inconsistency, they moved quickly to reconcile it.  Rekenthaler reports that their data-improvement effort is ongoing: “senior management is on a push for Morningstar-wide consistency in what data we publish and how we label the data, so we should be ferreting out the remaining oddities.”  As of June 19, the data had been reconciled. Thanks to the Wizards on West Wacker for their quick work.

FBR Funds Get Sold, Quickly

On June 26 2012, FBR announced the sale of their mutual fund unit to Hennessy Advisors.   Of the 10 FBR funds, seven will retain their current management teams. The managers of FBR’s Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap funds are getting dumped and their funds are merging into Hennessy funds. One of the mergers (Large Cap) is likely a win for the investors. One of the mergers (Mid Cap) is a loss and the third (Small Cap) has the appearance of a disaster.

FBR Large Cap (FBRPX, 1.25% e.r., 9.2% over three years) merges into Hennessy Cornerstone Large Growth (HFLGX), three year old large value fund, 1.3% e.r., 13.8% over 3 years. Win for the FBR shareholders.

FBR Mid Cap (FBRMX, 1.35% e.r., five year return of 3.0%) merges into Hennessy Focus 30 (HFTFX), midcap fund, 1.36% e.r., five year return of 1.25%. Higher minimum, same e.r., lower returns – loss for FBR shareholders.

FBR Small Cap (FBRYX, 1.45% e.r., five year return of 4.25%) merges into Hennessy Cornerstone Growth (HGCGX), small growth fund, 1.33% e.r., five year return of (8.2). Huh? Slightly lower expenses but a huge loss in performance. The 1250 basis point difference is 5-year performance does not appear to be a fluke. The Hennessy fund is consistently at the bottom of its peer group, going back a decade.   The fact that founder and CIO Neil Hennessy runs Cornerstone Growth might explain the decision to preserve the weaker fund and its strategy. This is a clear “run away!” for the FBR shareholders.

One alternative for FBRYX investors is into FBR’s own Small Cap Financial fund (FBRSX), run by Dave Ellison, FBR’s CIO. Ellison’s funds used to bear the FBR Pegasus brand. The fund only invests in the finance industry, but does it really well. That said, it’s more expensive than FBRYX with weaker returns, reflecting the sector’s disastrous decade.

The fate of FBR’s Gas Utility Index fund (GASFX) is unclear.  The key question is whether Hennessy will increase fees.  An FBR representative at Morningstar expressed doubt that they’d do any such thing.

The Long-Short Summer Series: Trying to Know if You’re Winning

As part of our summer series on long-short funds, we look this month at the performance of the premier long-short funds, of interesting newcomers, and of two benchmarks.

The challenge is to know when you’re winning if your goal is not the easily measurable “maximum total return.”  With long-short funds, you’re shooting for something more amorphous, akin to “pretty solid returns without the volatility that makes me crazy.”  In pursuit of funds that meet those criteria, we looked at the performance of long-short funds on one terrible day (June 1) and one great day (June 29), as well as during one terrible month (May 2012) and one really profitable period (January – June, 2012).

We looked at the return of Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index fund for each period, and highlighted (in green) those funds which managed to lose half as much as the market in the two down periods (May and June 1) but gain at least two-thirds of the market in the two up periods.  Here are the results, sorted by 2012 returns.

May 2012

(down)

June 1

(down)

June 29

(up)

2012, through July 1

Royce Opportunity Select

(6.3)

(4.0)

2.9

16.8

RiverPark Long Short Oppy

(5.3)

(2.0)

1.6

16.7 – mostly as a hedge fund

Vanguard Total Stock Market

(6.2)

(2.6)

2.6

9.3

Marketfield

(0.1)

(2.25)

1.2

8.8

Vanguard Balanced Index

(3.3)

(1.4)

1.5

6.5

Robeco Long Short

(0.6)

0.1

0.3

6.1

Caldwell & Orkin Market Oppy

0.1

(2.3)

1.5

4.7

ASTON/River Road Long Short

(3.1)

(0.2)

1.8

4.6

Bridgeway Managed Volatility

(2.4)

(1.8)

1.6

4.2

James Long Short

(3.0)

(0.9)

0.7

4.0

Robeco Boston Partners Long/Short Research

 

(4.8)

1.25

3.8

RiverPark/Gargoyle Hedged Value

(5.5)

(2.2)

1.4

2.7 –  mostly as a hedge fund

Schwab Hedged Equity

(3.3)

(1.7)

1.9

2.5

GRT Absolute Return

(2.0)

(0.1)

1.4

1.7

Wasatch Long-Short

(6.3)

(1.3)

2.0

1.3

Forester Value

(0.5)

0.25

0.8

1.2

ASTON/MD Sass Enhanced Equity

(4.4)

(0.6)

1.5

1.1

Turner Spectrum

(2.5)

(0.6)

0.4

(0.1)

Paladin Long Short

(0.9)

(0.1)

0.1

(1.9)

Hussman Strategic Growth

2.8

1.3

(1.3)

(7.6)

As we noted last month, in comparing the long-term performance of long-short funds to a very conservative bond index, consistent winners are hard to find.  Interesting possibilities from this list:

RiverPark Long Short Opportunity (RLSFX), which converted from an in-house hedge fund in March and which we’ll profile in August.

Marketfield (MFLDX), the mutual fund version of a global macro hedge fund, which we’re profiling this month.

ASTON/River Road Long Short (ARLSX), a disciplined little fund that we profiled last month.

New on our radar is Robeco Boston Partners Long/Short Research (BPRRX), sibling to the one indisputable gold-standard fund in the group, Robeco Long Short (BPLEX).  While the two follow the same investment discipline, BPLEX has a singular focus on small and micro stocks while BPRRX has a more traditional mid- to large-cap portfolio.

The chart below tracks BPPRX against its peer group average (orange) and the group’s top funds, including BPLEX (green), Marketfield (burgundy), and Wasatch (gold).  BPPRX itself is the blue line.

Since inception, BPRRX has been (1) well above average and (2) well below BPLEX.  It’s worth further research.

FundReveal perspective on Long-Short funds

Our collaborators at FundReveal are back, and are weighing-in with a discussion of long-short funds based on their fine-grained daily volatility and return data.  Their commentary follows, and is expanded-upon at their blog.


 

Nearly all of the Long-Short funds examined exhibit consistently low risk.  Many of them also beat the S&P 500’s Average Daily Returns.  Of the six funds analyzed by David (see bullets below) those rated as “A-Best” in one year most often beat the S&P in total returns the next year, a finding consistent with the out-of-sample forward testing that we have conducted for the entire market.

One thing that remains surprising is that the Long-Short funds great idea hasn’t really panned out.  It makes such sense to use all positive and negative information about companies and securities available when investing.   Doesn’t only investing long leave “money [information] on the table.”  But, in general, these funds have not delivered on that perceived potential.

BPLSX, Robeco Boston Partners Long/Short Fund has been delivering.  We agree with David that it can be seen as the gold standard.  From FundReveal’s perspective, the fund has persistently delivered “A-Best” performance, beating the S&P on both risk and return measures. Since 2005 the fund has been rated A-Best six times and C twice.  This includes a whopping 82% total return in 2009.  In 2009, 2010, and 2011 positive total returns followed A Best risk return rating in the preceding year.  Don’t get too excited:  the fund is closed.

David has commented or will comment on the following funds in the Mutual Fund Observer.

  • ARLSX  – Aston/River Road Long/Short
  • FMLSX – Wasatch 1st Source Long/Short
  • MFLDX – Marketfield Fund
  • AMBEX – Aston/River Long/Short
  • JAZZX – James Advantage Long/Short
  • GRTHX – GRT Absolute Return Fund

Good:

The two funds with positive investment decision-making attributes based on the FundReveal model are FMLSX and MFLDX.  Both persistently deliver A-Best risk-return performance, and relatively high Persistence Ratings, a measurement of the likelihood of A performance in the future: FMLSX: 40%, and MFLDX: 44%.

Not so Good:

JAZZX has demonstrated high Volatility and low Average Daily Return relative to its peers and the S&P.   It has only been in existence a short time; we have data from 2011 and 2012 YTD, but it is not faring well.   A wait and see position is probably justified.

Some additional candidates for consideration garnered from the FundReveal “Best Funds List” (free the FundReveal site).

VMNFX Vanguard Market Neutral Fund.  A solid low risk fund with 45% Persistence.  It has not hit the ball out of the park, but the team is demonstrating good decision- making as inferred from FundReveal measurements.

ALHIX American Century Equity Market Neutral Fund.  A solid fund with 4% volatility, market beating Average Daily Return in 2011, and Persistence of 44%.

FLSRX Forward Long/Short Credit Analysis Fund.  This fund may not even belong in this discussion since the others are stock funds.  Morningstar classifies this as an alternative bond fund.  Its portfolio is nearly exclusively Muni Bonds.  It is 34% Short and 132% Long in the Muni Bonds that make up 99% of its portfolio.  It has low Volatility, high Average Daily Return, Persistence Rating of 44%, and extraordinary performance in down markets (32% above the S&P).

A complete version of this analysis with tables and graphics is available on the FundReveal blog.

Best of the Web: Our Summer Doldrums Edition

Our contributing editor, Junior Yearwood, in collaboration with financial planner Johanna Fox-Turner have fine-tuned their analysis of retirement income calculators, a discussion they initiated last month.  In addition, Junior added a review of Chuck Jaffe’s new MoneyLife podcast.  Drop by Best of the Web to sample both!

Two Funds and Why They’re Really Worth Your While

Each month, the Observer profiles between two and four mutual funds that you likely have not heard about, but really should have.  Our “Most intriguing new funds: good ideas, great managers” do not yet have a long track record, but have other virtues which warrant your attention.  They might come from a great boutique or be offered by a top-tier manager who has struck out on his own.  The “stars in the shadows” aren’t all worthy of your “gotta buy” list, but all of them are going to be fundamentally intriguing possibilities that warrant some thought. Two intriguing  funds are:

Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX): Andrew Foster, who performed brilliantly as a risk-conscious emerging Asia manager for Matthews, is now leading this Asia-centric diversified emerging markets fund.  It builds on his years of experience and maintains its cautiousness, while adding substantial flexibility.

Marketfield (MFLDX): there are two reasons to read, now and closely, about Marketfield.  One, it’s about the most successful alternative-investment fund available to retail investors.  Two, it’s just been bought by New York Life and will be slapped with a front-end load come October.  Investors wanting to maintain access to no-load shares need to think, now, about their options.

Rest in Peace: Industry Leaders Fund (ILFIX)

I note with sadness the closing of Industry Leaders fund, a small sensible fund run by Gerry Sullivan, a remarkably principled investor.  The fund identified industries in which there was either one or two dominant players, invested equally in them and rebalanced periodically.  The idea (patented) was to systematically exclude sectors where leaders never emerged or were quickly overthrown.  The fund did brilliantly for the first half of its existence and passably in the second half, weighed down by exposure to global financial firms, but never managed any marketing track.

Sullivan continues as the (relatively new) manager of Vice Fund (VICEX), which has a long and oddly-distinguished record.

Briefly noted …

Several months ago we reported on the Zacks fund rating service, noting that it was sloppy, poorly explained, unclear, and possibly illogical.  Doubtless emboldened by our praise, Mitch and Ben Zacks have launched two ETFs: Zacks Sustainable Dividend ETF and Zacks MLP ETF.  There’s no evident need for either, an observation quite irrelevant in the world of ETFs.

Small Wins for Investors

Schwab reduced the expense ratio on Laudus Small-Cap MarketMasters (SWOSX) by 10 basis points and Laudus International MarketMasters (SWOIX) by 19 basis points.

Forward Frontier Strategy (FRNMX) has capped the fund’s expenses at 1.09 – 1.49%, depending on share class.

The three Primecap Odyssey funds (Stock POSKX, Growth POGRX and Aggressive Growth POAGX) have all dropped their 2% redemption fees.  That’s not really much of a win for investors since the redemption fees are designed to discourage rapid trading of fund shares (which is a bad thing), but I take what small gains I can find.

Touchstone Emerging Markets Equity (TEMAX) has reopened to new investors after 16 months.

Former Seligman Manager in Insider-Trading Case

The SEC announced that former Seligman Communications and Information comanager Reema Shah pled guilty to securities fraud and is barred permanently from the securities industry. The SEC says that Shah and a Yahoo (YHOO) executive swapped insider tips and that the Seligman fund she comanaged and others at the firm netted a $389,000 profit from trading based on insider information on Yahoo.

Farewells

Gary Motyl, chief investment officer for the Franklin, Templeton, and Mutual Series fund families, passed away.  Motyl was one of Sir John Templeton’s first hires and he’s been Franklin’s CIO for 12 years.  Pending the appointment of a new CIO later this summer, his duties are being covered by three other members of Franklin’s staff.

Closings

Delaware Select Growth (DVEAX) closed to new month on June 8th.

Franklin Double Tax-Free Income (FPRTX) initiated a soft close on June 15th and will switch to a hard close on August 1st.

Prudential Jennison Health Sciences (PHLAX) closed on June 29th after siphoning up $300 million in 18 months.

For those interested, The Wall Street Journal publishes a complete closed fund list each month.  It’s available online with the almost-poetic name, Table of Mutual Funds Closed to New Investors.

Old Wine, New Bottles

JPMorgan Asia Pacific Focus has changed its name to JPMorgan Asia Pacific (JASPX). The management of the team will be Mark Davids and Geoff Hoare.

Columbia Strategic Investor (CSVAX) will be renamed Columbia Global Dividend Opportunity. Actually it will become an entirely different fund under the guise of being “tweaked.”  I love it when they do that.  The former small cap and convertibles fund gets reborn as an all-cap global stock fund benchmarked against the MSCI All World Country Index. CSVAX’s managers have been fired and replaced by a team of guys who already run six other Columbia funds.

Ivy International Balanced (IVBAX) is being renamed Ivy Global Income Allocation.  It also picked up a second manager.

Off to the Dustbin of History

September will be the last issue of SmartMoney, a magazine once head-and-shoulders sharper and more data-driven than its peers.  According to a phone rep for SmartMoney, Dow is likely to convert SmartMoney.com into a pay site.  Dow will, they promise, “beef up” the online version and add editorial staff.  Plans have not yet been made final, but it sounds like SmartMoney subscribers will get free access to the site and might get downloadable versions of the articles.

It was a busy month for Acadia Principal Conservation Fund (APCVX).  On June one, the board cut its offensively high 12(b)1 fee in half (to an industry-standard 0.25%) and dropped its expense ratio by 10 basis points.  On June 25th, they closed and liquidated the fund.  On the upside, the fund (mostly) preserved principal in its two years of existence.  On the downside, it made no money for its investors and had a negative real return.  Still, that doesn’t speak to the coherence of their planning.

Effective June 1, Bridgeway Aggressive Investors 2 (which I once dubbed “Bridgeway Not Quite So Aggressive Investors”) and Micro-Cap Limited both ceased to exist, having merged into Aggressive Investors 1 (BRAGX) and Ultra-Small Company (BRUSX).  Both of the remaining funds had long, brilliant runs before getting nailed in recent years by the apparent implosion of Bridgeway’s quant models.

Fido plans to merge Fidelity Advisor Stock Selector All Cap (FARAX) into Fidelity Stock Selector All Cap (FDSSX), which would lead to an expense reduction for the Advisor shareholders.  By year’s end, Fidelity will merge Mid Cap Growth (FSMGX) into Stock Selector Mid Cap Fund (FSSMX). They’ve already closed Mid Cap Growth in preparation for the move.

JPMorgan Asia Equity (JAEAX) is being liquidated on July 20, 2012.  It’s a bad fund that has seen massive outflows.  The managers, nonetheless, will remain with JPMorgan.

Nuveen Large Cap Value (FASKX) merges into Nuveen Dividend Value (FFEIX), also in October.  That’s a win for Large Cap shareholders: they get the same management team and a comparable strategy with lower expenses.

Oppenheimer Fixed Income Active Allocation (OAFAX) will merge into Oppenheimer Global Strategic Income (OPSIX) in early October, 2012.

Victory Value (SVLSX), which spiraled from mediocre to awful in the last two years, will liquidate at the end of August.  Friends and mourners still have access to Victory Special Value (SSVSX, a weak mid-cap growth fund) and Victory Established Value (VETAX, actually very solid mid-cap value fund).

I’m off to Washington for the Fourth of July week with family.  Preparation for that trip and ten days of often-hectic travel in June kept me from properly thanking several contributors (thanks!  A formal acknowledgement is coming!) and from completing profiles of a couple fascinating funds: Cook and Bynum (COBYX) and FPA International (FPIVX), one of which will be part of a major set of new profiles in August.

Until then, take care, keep cool and celebrate family!

Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income Fund (SFGIX) – July 2012

By David Snowball

Objective and Strategy

SFGIX seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation along with some current income; it also seeks to mitigate adverse volatility in returns. The Fund invests a significant amount of its net assets in the securities of companies located in developing countries. The Fund can invest in dividend-paying common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible bonds, and fixed-income securities.  The fund will invest 20-50% in developed markets and 50-80% in developing and frontier markets worldwide.

Adviser

Seafarer Capital Partners of San Francisco.  Seafarer is a small, employee-owned firm whose only focus is the Seafarer fund.

Managers

Andrew Foster is the lead manager and is assisted by William Maeck.  Mr. Foster is Seafarer’s founder and Chief Investment Officer.  Mr. Foster formerly was manager or co-manager of Matthews Asia Growth & Income (MACSX) and Matthews’ research director and acting chief investment officer.  He began his career in emerging markets in 1996, when he worked as a management consultant with A.T. Kearney, based in Singapore, then joined Matthews in 1998.  Andrew was named Director of Research in 2003 and served as the firm’s Acting Chief Investment Officer during the height of the global financial crisis, from 2008 through 2009.  Mr. Maeck is the associate portfolio manager and head trader for Seafarer.  He’s had a long career as an investment adviser, equity analyst and management consultant.  They are assisted by an analyst with deep Latin America experience.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

Mr. Foster has over $1 million in the fund.  Both his associate manager and senior research analyst have substantial investments in the fund.

Opening date

February 15, 2012

Minimum investment

$2,500 for regular accounts and $1000 for retirement accounts. The minimum subsequent investment is $500.

Expense ratio

1.60% after waivers on assets of $5 million (as of June, 2012).  The fund does not charge a 12(b)1 marketing fee but does have a 2% redemption fee on shares held fewer than 90 days.

Comments

The case for Seafarer is straightforward: it’s going to be one of your best options for sustaining exposure to an important but challenging asset class.

The asset class is emerging markets equities, primarily.  The argument for emerging markets exposure is well-known and compelling.  The emerging markets represent the single, sustainable source of earnings growth for investors.  As of 2010, emerging markets represented 30% of the world’s stock market capitalization but only 6% of the average American investor’s portfolio.  During the first (so-called “lost”) decade of the 21st century, the MSCI emerging markets stock index doubled in price. An analysis by Goldman projects that, over the next 20 years, the emerging markets will account for 55% of the global stock market and that China will be the world’s single largest market.  That’s consistent with GMO’s May 2012 7-year asset class return forecast, which projects a 6.7% real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) annual return for emerging equities but less than 1% for the U.S. stock market as a whole.  Real returns on emerging debt were projected at 1.7% while U.S. bonds were projected to lose money over the period.

Sadly, the average investor seems incapable of profiting from the potential of the emerging markets, seemingly because of our hard-wired aversion to loss.  Recent studies by Morningstar and Dalbar substantiate the point.  John Rekenthaler’s “Myth of the Dumb Fund Investor” (June 2012) looks at a decade’s worth of data and concludes that investors tend to pick the better fund within an asset class while simultaneously picking the worst asset classes (buying small caps just before a period of large cap outperformance).  Dalbar’s  Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (2012) looks at 20 years of data and concluded that equity investors’ poor timing decisions cost them 2-6% annually; that is, the average equity investor trails the broad market by about that much.

The situation with emerging markets investing appears far worse.  Morningstar calculates “investor returns” for many, though not all, funds.  Investor returns take into account a fund’s asset size which allows Morningstar to calculate whether the average investor was around during a fund’s strongest years or its weakest.  In general, investors sacrifice 65-75% of their potential returns through bad (fearful or greedy) timing. That’s based on a reading of 10-year investor versus fund returns.  For T Rowe Price E. M. Stock (PRMSX), for example, the fund returned 12% annually over the last decade while the average investor earned 3%.  For the large but low-rated Fidelity E.M. (FEMKX), the fund returned 10.5% while its investors made 3.5%.

Institutional investors were not noticeably more rational.  JPMorgan Emerging Markets Equities Institutional (JMIEX) and Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Institutional (LZEMX) posted similar gaps.  The numbers for DFA, which carefully vets and trains its clients, were wildly inconsistent: DFA Emerging Markets I (DFEMX) showed virtually no gap while DFA Emerging Markets II (DFETX) posted an enormous one.  Rekenthaler also found the same weaknesses in institutional investors as he did in retail ones.

There is, however, one fund that stands in sharp contrast to this dismal general pattern: Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX), which Andrew Foster co-managed or managed for eight years.  Over the past decade, the fund posted entirely reasonable returns: about 11.5% per year (through June 2012).  MACSX’s investors did phenomenally well.  They earned, on average. 10.5% for that decade. That means they captured 91% of the fund’s gains.  Over the past 15 years, the results are even better with investors capturing essentially 100% of the fund’s returns.

The great debate surrounding MACSX was whether it was the best Asia-centered fund in existence or merely one of the two or three best funds in existence.  Here’s the broader truth within their disagreement: Mr. Foster’s fund was, consistently and indisputably one of the best Asian funds in existence.

The fund married an excellent strategy with excellent execution. Based on his earlier research, Mr. Foster believes that perhaps two-thirds of MACSX’s out-performance was driven by having “a more sensible” approach (for example, recognizing the strategic errors embedded in the index benchmarks which drive most “active” managers) and one-third by better security selection (driven by intensive research and over 1500 field visits).  Seafarer will take the MACSX formula global.  It is arguable that that Mr. Foster can create a better fund at Seafarer than he had at Matthews.

One key is geographic diversification.  As of May 31, 2012, Seafarer had an 80/20 split between developing Asia and the rest of the world.  Mr. Foster argues that it makes sense to hold an Asia-centered portfolio.  Asia is one of the world’s most dynamic regions and legal protections for investors are steadily strengthening.  It will drive the world’s economy over decades.  In the shorter term, while the inevitable unraveling of the Eurozone will shake all markets, “Asia may be able to withstand such losses best.”

That said, a purely Asian portfolio is less attractive than an Asia-centered portfolio with selective exposure to other emerging markets.  Other regions are, he argues, undergoing the kind of changes now than Asia underwent a generation ago which might offer the prospect of outsized returns.  Some of the world’s most intriguing markets are just now becoming investable while others are becoming differently investable: while Latin America has long been a “resources play” dependent on Asian customers, it’s now developing new sectors(think “Brazilian dental HMOs”) and new markets whose value is not widely recognized.  In addition, exposure to those markets will buffer the effects of a Chinese slowdown.

Currently the fund invests almost-exclusively in common stock, either directly or through ADRs and ETFs.  That allocation is driven in part by fundamentals and in part by necessity.  Fundamentally, emerging market valuations are “very appealing.”  Mr. Foster believes that there have only been two occasions over the course of his career – during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global crisis – that “valuations were definitively more attractive than at present” (Shareholder Letter, 18 May 2012). That’s consistent with GMO’s projection that emerging equities will be the highest-returning asset class for the next five-to-seven years.  As a matter of necessity, the fund has been too small to participate in the convertible securities market.  With more assets under management, it gains the flexibility to invest in convertibles – an asset class that substantially strengthened MACSX’s performance in the past.  Mr. Foster has authority to add convertibles, preferred shares and fixed income when valuations and market conditions warrant.  He was done so skillfully throughout his career.

Seafarer’s returns over its first two quarters of existence (through 29 June 2012) are encouraging.  Seafarer has substantially outperformed the diversified emerging markets group as a whole, iShares Asia S&P 50 (AIA) ETF, First Trust Aberdeen Emerging Opportunities fund(FEO) which is one of the strongest emerging markets balanced funds, the emerging Asia, Latin America and Europe benchmarks, an 80/20 Asia/non-Asia benchmark, and so on.  It has closely followed the performance of MACSX, though it ended the period trailing by a bit.

Bottom Line

Mr. Foster is remarkably bright, thoughtful, experienced and concerned about the welfare of his shareholders.  He grasps the inefficiencies built into standard emerging markets indexes, and replicated by many of the “active” funds that are benchmarked to them. He’s already navigated the vicissitudes of a region’s evolution from uninvestable to frontier, emerging and near-developed.   He believes that experience will serve his shareholders “when the world’s falling apart but you see how things fit together.” He’s a good manager of risk, which has made him a great manager of returns.  The fund offers him more flexibility than he’s ever had and he’s using it well.  There are few more-attractive emerging markets options available.

Fund website

Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income.  The website is remarkably rich, both with analyses of the fund’s portfolio and performance, and with commentary on broader issues.

Disclosure

In mid-July, about two weeks after this profile is published, I’ll purchase shares of Seafarer for my personal, non-retirement account.  I’ll sell down part of my existing MACSX stake to fund that purchase.

[cr2012]