May 2012 – Financial news aggregators

By Junior Yearwood

We all know the importance of accurate, current and relevant financial news. Even more than the news, we need some perspective on the news, some ability to separate important information from background noise and to place that information in a meaningful context. That responsibility has traditionally fallen to journalists, financial and otherwise.

For anyone attempting to make sense of a day’s (or week’s or year’s) events, the problem is not a shortage of stuff to drawn on. Quite the opposite: the problem is that absolute torrent of information that pummels us. By way of simple example, Google News tracks 25,000 publications (including 4,500 English-language news sites) daily.

One answer is to turn to a trusted, professional source for all your news: Reuters, Dow-Jones, the New York Times, the Financial Times and a few others have long and distinguished records.  But each has its own limits, biases and idiosyncrasies. In response, more and more readers have come to rely on news feeds and news aggregators.

News aggregators do not create news. They collect news from various third party sources, but they “choose to aggregate, to pass along, to recommend, to sort, involves normative evaluation of content,” note long-time journalists, Bill Kovach of The New York Times and Tom Rosenstiel of The Los Angeles Times (Blur: How to Know What’s True in the Age of Information Overload, Bloomsbury: 2010).  Ideally, they then present it in an easily accessible format to readers. That can make them an excellent choice for quickly accessing relevant and important financial information.

The problem is that there are too many news aggregators and too little quality control. Some like Google, automatically pull links from a multitude of online sources and then present those that contain specific keywords and have been read by the largest number of people. They are driven by algorithms that choose sites automatically based on hits, clicks, keywords and trends. These sites process of  millions of data points and use complicated mathematical formulae to decide which stories to present to you. Another approach targets a set of predetermined feeds. For these news aggregators the “source” might be more important than the story.

What we have searched for is what Kovach and Rosenstiel term the “smart aggregator,” a financial news aggregator who understands what its purpose is. These websites understand that investors want a place where they can quickly and easily go through the important financial headlines of the day, and just as easily click through to the stories that they choose.  They understand that what is popular is not always relevant or useful and they take the time to properly separate the wheat from the chaff. Essentially what we sought were financial news aggregators that have an element of human curation.

How did we identify the web’s best financial news aggregators?  Simple: we identified as many as we could and then test drove each one during the week of April 23-27, 2012.  In reviewing each site, we applied the same criteria:

    • were the aggregated sources diverse?
    • were the aggregated sources reliable?
    • did the story coverage and selection represent intelligent priorities?
    • was the site efficiently constructed and easy to navigate, and ideally,
    • was there a discernible human presence, or voice, in the process?

Two stood out, while a dozen were more trouble than they were worth.

Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns is likely the web’s most-celebrated financial news aggregator.  Like the Observer, Abnormal Returns is an independent publication; that is, it’s not part of a larger media entity.  In six years, its daily linkfest and “forecast-free” ethos has made it a daily destination for thousands.

Counterparties

Counterparties are “the other guys” in every financial transaction, the buyer when you’re a seller, the insurer when you’re the insured.  On the web, Counterparties is a young, human-curated news aggregator.  Part of the Thomson Reuters empire, its eclectic, lively and sharply-done.

Sites that made us go “hmmmm.” There were two other sites that offered important, provocative and/or diverting content, but which did not rise to the level of our top two.  Nonetheless we’d like to commend the two of them for your consideration.

Smart Brief

Smart Brief is less a news aggregator than a newsletter aggregator.  The editors write that “[t]he premise behind SmartBrief is simple: there’s too much information out there and too little time in the day to read it all. Our editors hand-pick the most relevant and important news from all over, summarize it, link to the original sources and deliver it — for FREE — in one-stop-shop e-newsletters.”  Some of the newsletters are produced by trade associations (New York Society of Security Analysts) for more-or-less targeted audiences (from “retirement savings community” to “operations and finance professionals”).  The newsletters update between daily and bi-weekly.

Fark

Fark is another of those sites that David, our esteemed publisher, likes and that I just shake my head at.  (But hey, he’s the boss so …) Fark, which advertises “Real News, Real Funny” describes itself as  “a news aggregator and an edited social networking news site. Every day Fark receives 2,000 or so news submissions from its readership, from which we hand-pick the funny and weird notable news — and not-news — of the day. “  The site has been around since 2000 and posts 6-10 business stories a day.  You can get a sense of their editorial sensibilities by looking at two of their top stories from April 27: “New Woolrich designer clothes that conceal firearms will no longer have your wife asking if the Glock makes her butt look big” (CBS News) and a Reuters story on the effect of Amazon’s earnings announcement on the equities market.

As always, not only could we be wrong, we’d be delighted to be proven wrong.  If you’ve found a better aggregator or you’ve found a serious error with one of our choices, write me  If you can show us a better mousetrap, we’ll include it and we’ll highlight that in David’s next column.  We’ll also give you public credit for your find and we’ll offer you a chance to contribute to the rewrite.

As always, I’d love to hear your ideas for “best of” focuses in the months ahead or for particular websites.  Write me! Remember time is money, why not take a few minutes to read this month’s feature? It just might help you avoid the multitude of aggregators who do little more than steal your time, and have more to do with racking up page hits than providing relevant and useful information.

Abnormal Returns – Financial News Aggregator

By Junior Yearwood

Abnormal Returns is a widely-touted finance and investing blog that aggregates news stories from the blogosphere and the mainstream media. The six-year-old website has been celebrated as “the linkfest against which all others should be judged in the financial blogosphere” (Joshua Brown in The Christian Science Monitor) and one of “the best of the blogs” (Minyanville).  Its editor, Tadas Viskanta, is one of “the finance people you have to follow on Twitter” (Business Insider) and “a lot smarter than you are” (The Globe and Mail).  Mr. Viskanta describes himself as “a private investor” with an MBA from The University of Chicago. In the 1990s he co-authored, with colleagues from First Chicago and Duke University, a series of journal articles on global investing.  HIs most widely-cited works deal with international equity correlations and various classes of risk factors.  His most recent work, Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investing Blogosphere (McGraw-Hill, 2012), came out in mid-April.

Presentation

Abnormal Returns has a clean, content-focused layout. Across the top there’s the site banner, with a search box and rudimentary site navigation.  Below the banner and site navigation links the page is separated into two sections.  The left column contains the current content; the right column has the archives and a smattering of ads.

The content on the left side is presented as a scrollable list of links, grouped into categories. The lists always begin with the quote of the day and the chart of the day and sometimes a video of the day. These are followed by the actual links to the news that you are looking for.  Each link includes a concise summary of the story: “Should investors bother with long/short equity mutual funds? <link>”

The simple layout makes navigation a breeze.  With no unnecessary graphics to distract me I was able to quickly scan the short summaries and decide whether to click through or move on to the next item. Generally I enjoyed the minimalist uncluttered feel.  The site suffers from three small design weaknesses:

  • At times it is difficult to identify the different categories when quickly scanning through since they are only separated by a heading that was underlined and in bold font (ETFs). The font type was the same so when quickly scrolling up or down the list at times I missed a heading completely.  That was a minor issue though and only occurred when I sped through the page.
  • Of greater concern was the fact that clicking a link (in both Firefox and Chrome) did not cause a new tab to open, instead the link caused the page to open in the existing tab. That may not be of any concern to some but be prepared to hit the back button often if you don’t have a preview plug-in installed in your browser. You can, of course, right-click and choose new tab but that’s unnecessarily clunky.
  • The function of “The Latest” is muddy.  It appears to exactly duplicate the “Recent Posts” list in the adjacent column, and therefore add little value to the site.

Content

Abnormal Returns provides links to news, commentary and information that was created by members of the financial blogosphere, as well as financial and investing news, articles, and occasional videos from the mainstream media and commercial websites.  The website is updated daily, and there are also links to archived material and recent posts that you may have missed.

Selection criteria

In a wide ranging interview that was published on Covestor, Mr. Viskanta states that the links he recommends contains elements of commentary and analysis. He also stated that they should have some lasting value. He is clear that the links represents material that he personally finds interesting and useful.

Quality of sources

The links that appear on Abnormal Returns are selected from a wide range of sources. After test driving the site I was impressed by the diversity.  While many (if not most) of the article links were from the financial blogosphere, there were many articles that came from  established and well respected industry heavyweights such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and The Economist. In the Covestor interview Mr. Viskanta explains that his links are curated from a variety of sources including emailed content, his personal newsfeed, Twitter and StockTwits.

The Human Touch

Every link in the daily updated content is human-selected; there is no element of mechanical aggregation in the selection process.

The Bottom Line

Technically speaking Abnormal Returns may be better described as a curated financial news blog. We decided to include it on our list because it is one of the best options for any investor looking for a website that provides important, topical and useful news and commentary from a wide cross-section of sources. Also weighing in on the decision was the reputation of the site founder and the generally high quality of the material that the site recommends. Overall we think that Abnormal Returns ranks as one of the best collections useful finance and investing news and commentary. The layout is simple and easy to navigate and its text heavy presentation means that you will spend more time getting useful information and less time being distracted.

[cr2012]

 

April 1, 2012

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Are you feeling better?  2011 saw enormous stock market volatility, ending with a total return of one-quarter of one percent in the total stock market.  Who then would have foreseen Q1 2012: the Dow and S&P500 posted their best quarter since 1998.  The Dow posted six consecutive months of gains, and ended the quarter up 8%.  The S&P finished up 12% and the NASDAQ up 18% (its best since 1991).

Strong performance is typical in the first quarter of any year, and especially of a presidential election year.  Investors, in response, pulled $9.4 billion out of domestic equity funds and – even with inflows into international funds – reduced their equity investments by $3.2 billion dollars.  They fled, by and large, into the safety of the increasingly bubbly bond market.

It’s odd how dumb things always seem so sensible when we’re in the midst of doing them.

Do You Need Something “Permanent” in your Portfolio?

The title derives from the Permanent Portfolio concept championed by the late Harry Browne.  Browne was an advertising executive in the 1960s who became active in the libertarian movement and was twice the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president of the United States.  In 1981, he and Terry Coxon wrote Inflation-Proofing Your Investments, which argued that your portfolio should be positioned to benefit from any of four systemic states: inflation, deflation, recession and prosperity.  As he envisioned it, a Permanent Portfolio invests:

25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of prosperity.

25% in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which should do well during deflation.

25% in cash, in order to hedge against periods of recession.

25% in precious metals (gold, specifically), in order to provide protection during periods of inflation.

The Global X Permanent ETF (PERM) is the latest attempt to implement the strategy.  It’s also the latest to try to steal business from Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) which has drawn $17.8 billion in assets (and, more importantly from a management firm’s perspective, $137 million in fees for an essentially passive strategy).  Those inflows reflect PRPFX’s sustained success: over the past 15 years, it has returned an average of 9.2% per year with only minimal stock market exposure.

PRPFX is surely an attractive target, since its success not attributable to Michael Cuggino’s skill as a manager.  His stock picking, on display at Permanent Portfolio Aggressive Growth (PAGRX) is distinctly mediocre; he’s had one splendid year and three above-average ones in a decade.  It’s a volatile fund whose performance is respectable mostly because of his top 2% finish in 2005.  His fixed income investing is substantially worse.  Permanent Portfolio Versatile Bond (PRVBX) and Permanent Portfolio Short Term Treasury (PRTBX) are flat-out dismal.  Over the past decade they trail 95% of their peer funds.  All of his funds charge above-average expenses.  Others might conclude that PRPFX has thrived despite, rather than because of, its manager.

Snowball’s annual rant: Despite having received $48 million as his investment advisory fee (Mr. Cuggino is the advisor’s “sole member,” president and CEO), he’s traditionally been shy about investing in his funds though that might be changing.  “As of April 30, 2010,” according to his Annual Report, “Mr. Cuggino owned shares in each of the Fund’s Portfolios through his ownership of Pacific Heights.” A year later, that investment is substantially higher but corporate and personal money (if any) remain comingled in the reports.  In any case, he “determines his own compensation.”  That includes some portion of the advisor’s profits and the $65,000 a year he pays himself to serve on his own board of trustees.  On the upside, the advisor has authorized a one basis point fee waiver, as of 12/31/11.  Okay, that’s over.  I promise I’ll keep quiet on the topic until the spring of 2013.

It’s understandable that others would be interested in getting a piece of that highly-profitable action.  It’s surprising that so few have made the attempt.  You might argue that Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX) offers a wave in the same direction and the Midas Perpetual Portfolio (MPERX), which invests in a suspiciously similar mix of precious metals, Swiss francs, growth stocks and bonds, is a direct (though less successful) copy.  Prior to December 29, 2008, MPERX (then known as Midas Dollar Reserves) was a government money market fund.  That day it changed its name to Perpetual Portfolio and entered the Harry Browne business.

A simple portfolio comparison shows that neither PRPFX nor MPERX quite matches Browne’s simple vision, nor do their portfolios look like each other.

  Permanent Portfolio Permanent ETF Perpetual Portfolio targets
Gold and silver 24% 25% 25
Swiss francs 10%  – 10
Stocks 25% 25% 30
          Aggressive growth           16.5           15           15
          Natural resource companies           8           5           15
          REITs           8           5  
Bonds 34% 50% 35
          Treasuries, long term           ~8           25  
          Treasuries, short-term           ~16           25  
          Corporate, short-term           6.5  –  
       
Expense ratio for the fund 0.77% 0.49% 1.35%

Should you invest in one, or any, of these vehicles?  If so, proceed with extreme care.  There are three factors that should give you pause.  First, two of the four underlying asset classes (gold and long-term bonds) are three decades into a bull market.  The projected future returns of gold are unfathomable, because its appeal is driven by psychology rather than economics, but its climb has been relentless for 20 years.  GMO’s most recent seven-year asset class projections show negative real returns for both bonds and cash.  Second, a permanent portfolio has a negative correlation with interest rates.  That is, when interest rates fall – as they have for 30 years – the funds return rises.  When interest rates rise, the returns fall.  Because PRPFX was launched after the Volcker-induced spike in rates, it has never had to function in a rising rate environment.  Third, even with favorable macro-economic conditions, this portfolio can have long, dismal stretches.  The fund posts its annual returns since inception on its website.  In the 14 years between 1988 and 2001, the fund returned an average of 4.1% annually.  During those same years inflation average 3% annually, which means PRPFX offered a real return of 1.1% per year.

And, frankly, you won’t make it to any longer-term goal with 1.1% real returns.

There are two really fine analyses of the Permanent Portfolio strategy.  Geoff Considine penned “What Investors Should Fear in the Permanent Portfolio” for Advisor Perspectives (2011) and Bill Bernstein wrote a short piece “Wild About Harry” for the Efficient Frontier (2010).

RiverPark Funds: Launch Alert and Fund Family Update

RiverPark Funds are making two more hedge funds available to retail investors, folks they describe as “the mass affluent.”  Given the success of their previous two ventures in that direction – RiverPark/Wedgewood Fund (RWGFX) and RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX, in which I have an investment) – these new offerings are worth a serious look.

RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity Fund is a long/short fund that has been managed by Mitch Rubin since its inception as a hedge fund in the fall of 2009.  The RiverPark folks believe, based on their conversation with “people who are pretty well versed on the current mutual funds that employ hedge fund strategies” that the fund has three characteristics that set it apart:

  • it uses a fundamental, bottom-up approach
  • it is truly shorting equities (rather than Index ETFs)
  • it has a growth bias for its longs and tends to short value.

Since inception, the fund generated 94% of the stock market’s return (33.5% versus 35.8% for the S&P500 from 10/09 – 02/12) with only 50% of its downside risk (whether measured by worst month, worst quarter, down market performance or max drawdown).

While the hedge fund has strong performance, it has had trouble attracting assets.  Morty Schaja, RiverPark’s president, attributes that to two factors.  Hedge fund investors have an instinctive bias against firms that run mutual funds.  And RiverPark’s distribution network – it’s most loyal users – are advisors and others who are uninterested in hedge funds.  It’s managed by Mitch Rubin, one of RiverPark’s founders and a well-respected manager during his days with the Baron funds.  The expense ratio is 1.85% on the institutional shares and 2.00% on the retail shares and the minimum investment in the retail shares is $1000.  It will be available through Schwab and Fidelity starting April 2, 2012.

RiverPark/Gargoyle Hedged Value Fund pursued a covered call strategy.  Here’s how Gargoyle describes their investment strategy:

The Fund invests all of its assets in a portfolio of undervalued mid- to large-cap stocks using a quantitative value model, then conservatively hedges part of its stock market risk by selling a blend of overvalued index call options, all in a tax-efficient manner. Proprietary tools are used to maintain the Fund’s net long market exposure within a target range, allowing investors to participate as equities trend higher while offering partial protection as equities trend lower.

Since inception (January 2000), the fund has posted 900% of the S&P500’s returns (150% versus 16.4%, 01/00 – 02/12).  Much of that outperformance is attributable to crushing the S&P from 2000-2002 but the fund has still outperformed the S&P in 10 of 12 calendar years and has done so with noticeably lower volatility.  Because the strategy is neither risk-free nor strongly correlated to the movements of the stock market, it has twice lost a little money (2007 and 2011) in years in which the S&P posted single-digit gains.

Mr. Schaja has worked with this strategy since he “spearheaded a research effort for a similar strategy while at Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette 25 years ago.”  Given ongoing uncertainties about the stock market, he argues “a buy-write strategy, owning equities and writing or selling call options on the underlying portfolio offers a very attractive risk return profile for investors. . . investors are willing to give up some upside, for additional income and some downside protection.  By selling option premium of about 1 1/2% per month, the Gargoyle approach can generate attractive risk adjusted returns in most markets.”

The hedge fund has about $190 million in assets (as of 02/12).  It’s managed by Joshua Parker, President of Gargoyle, and Alan Salzbank, its Managing Partner – Risk Management.  The pair managed the hedge fund since inception (including of its predecessor partnership since its inception in January 1997).  The expense ratio is 1.25% on the institutional shares and 1.5% on the retail shares and the minimum investment in the retail shares is $1000.  The challenge of working out a few last-minute brokerage bugs means that Gargoyle will launch on May 1, 2012.

Other RiverPark notes:

RiverPark Large Growth (RPXFX) is coming along nicely after a slow start. It’s a domestic, mid- to large-cap growth fund with 44 stocks in the portfolio.  Mitch Rubin, who managed Baron Growth, iOpportunity and Fifth Avenue Growth as various points in his career, manages it. Its returns are in the top 3% of large-growth funds for the past year (through March 2012), though its asset base remains small at $4 million.

RiverPark Small Cap Growth (RPSFX) continues to have … uh, “modest success” in terms of both returns and asset growth.  It has outperformed its small growth peers in six of its first 17 months of operation and trails the pack modestly across most trailing time periods. It’s managed by Mr. Rubin and Conrad van Tienhoven.

RiverPark/Wedgewood Fund (RWGFX) is a concentrated large growth fund which aims to beat passive funds at their own game.  It’s been consistently at or near the top of the large-growth pack since inception.  David Rolfe, the manager, strikes me as bright, sensible and good-humored and the fund has drawn $200 million in assets in its first 18 months of operation.

RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX) pursues a distinctive, and distinctly attractive, strategy.  He buys a bunch of securities (called high yield bonds among them) which are low-risk and inefficiently priced because of a lack of buyers.  The key to appreciating the fund is to utterly ignore Morningstar’s peer rankings.  He’s classified as a “high yield bond fund” despite the fact that the fund’s objectives and portfolio are utterly unrelated to such funds.  It’s best to think of it as a sort of cash-management option.  The fund’s worst monthly loss was 0.24% and its worst quarter was 0.07%.   As of 3/28/12, the fund’s NAV ($10.00) is the same as at launch but its annual returns are around 4%.

Finally, a clarification.  I’ve fussed at RiverPark in the past for being too quick to shut down funds, including one mutual fund and several actively-managed ETFs.  Matt Kelly of RiverPark recently wrote to clear up my assumption that the closures were RiverPark’s idea:

Adam Seessel was the sub-adviser of the RiverPark/Gravity Long-Biased Fund. . . Adam became friendly with Frank Martin who is the founder of Martin Capital Management . . . a year ago, Frank offered Adam his CIO position and a piece of the company. Adam accepted and shortly thereafter, Frank decided that he did not want to sub-advise anyone else’s mutual fund so we were forced to close that fund.

Back in 2009, [RiverPark president Morty Schaja] teamed up with Grail Advisers to launch active ETFs. Ameriprise bought Grail last summer and immediately dismissed all of the sub-advisers of the grail ETFs in favor of their own managers.

Thanks to Matt for the insight.

FundReveal, Part 2: An Explanation and a Collaboration

For our “Best of the Web” feature, my colleague Junior Yearwood sorts through dozens of websites, tools and features to identify the handful that are most worth your while.  On March 1, he identified the low-profile FundReveal service as one of the three best mutual fund rating sites (along with Morningstar and Lipper).  The award was made based on the quality of evidence available to corroborate a ratings system and the site’s usability.

Within days, a vigorous and thoughtful debate broke out on the Observer’s discussion board about FundReveal’s assumptions.  Among the half dozen questions raised, two in particular seemed to resonate: (1) isn’t it unwise to benchmark everything – including gold and short-term bond funds – against the risk and return profile of the S&P 500?  And (2) you assume that past performance is not predictive, but isn’t your system dependent on exactly that?

I put both of those questions to the guys behind FundReveal, two former Fidelity executives who had an important role to play in changing the way trading decisions were made and employees rewarded.  Here’s the short version of their answers.  Fuller versions are available on their blog.

(1) Why does FundReveal benchmark all funds against the S&P? Does the analysis hold true if other benchmarks are used?

FundReveal uses the S&P 500 as a single, consistent reference for comparing performance between funds, for 4 of its 8 measures. The S&P also provides a “no-brainer” alternative to any other investments, including mutual funds. If an investor wishes to participate in the market, without selecting specific sectors or securities, an S&P 500 index fund or ETF provides that alternative.

Four of FundReveal’s eight measurements position funds relative to the index. Four others are independent of the S&P 500 index comparison.

An investor can compare a fund’s risk-return performance against any index fund by simply inserting the symbol of an index fund that mimics the index. Then the four absolute measures for a fund (average daily returns, volatility of daily returns, worst case return and number of better funds) can be compared against the chosen index fund.

ADR and Volatility are the most direct and closest indicators of a mutual fund’s daily investment and trading decisions. They show how well a fund is being managed. High ADR combined with low Volatility are indicators of good management. Low ADR with high Volatility indicates poor management.

(2) Why is it that FundReveal says that past total returns are not useful in deciding which funds to invest in for the future? Why do your measures, which are also calculated from past data, provide insight into future fund performance?

Past total returns cannot indicate future performance. All industry performance ratings contain warnings to this effect, but investors continue using them, leading to “return chasing investor behavior.”

[A conventional calculations of total return]  includes the beginning and ending NAV of a fund, irrespective of the NAVs of the fund during the intervening time period. For example, if a fund performed poorly during most of the days of a year, but its NAV shot up during the last week of the year, its total return would be high. The low day-to-day returns would be obscured. Total Return figures cannot indicate the effectiveness of investment decisions made by funds every day.

Mutual funds make daily portfolio and investment decisions of what and how much to hold, sell or buy. These decisions made by portfolio managers, supported by their analysts and implemented by their traders, produce daily returns: positive some days, and negative others. Measuring their average daily values and their variability (Volatility) gives direct quantitative information about the effectiveness of the daily investment decisions. Well managed funds have high ADR and low Volatility. Poorly managed funds behave in the opposite manner.

I removed a bunch of detail from the answers.  The complete versions of the S&P500 benchmark and past performance as predictor are available on their blog.

My take is two-fold: first, folks are right in criticizing the use of the S&P500 as a sole benchmark.  An investor looking for a conservative portfolio would likely find himself or herself discouraged by the lack of “A” funds.  Second, the system itself remains intriguing given the ability to make more-appropriate comparisons.  As they point out in the third paragraph, there are “make your own comparison” and “look only at comparable funds” options built into their system.

In order to test the ability of FundReveal to generate useful insights in fund selection, the Observer and FundReveal have entered into a collaborative arrangement.  They’ve agreed to run analyses of the funds we profile over the next several months.  We’ll share their reasoning and bottom line assessment of each fund, which might or might not perfectly reflect our own.  FundReveal will then post, free, their complete assessment of each fund on their blog.  After a trial of some months, we’re hoping to learn something from each other – and we’re hoping that all of our readers benefit from having a second set of eyes looking at each of these funds.

Both the Tributary and Litman Gregory profiles include their commentary, and the link to their blog appears at the end of each profile.  Please do let me know if you find the information helpful.

Lipper: Your Best Small Fund Company is . . .

GuideStone Funds.

GuideStone Funds?

Uhh … Lipper’s criterion for a “small” company is under $40 billion under management which is, by most standards, not small.  Back to GuideStone.

From their website: “GuideStone Funds, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources, provides a diversified family of Christian-based, socially screened mutual funds.”

Okay.  In truth, I had no prior awareness of the family.  What I’ve noticed since the Lipper awards is that the funds have durn odd names (they end in GS2 or GS4 designations), that the firm’s three-year record (on which Lipper made their selection) is dramatically better than either the firm’s one-year or five-year record.  That said, over the past five years, only one GuideStone fund has below-average returns.

Fidelity: Thinking Static

As of March 31, 2012, Fidelity’s Thinking Big viral marketing effort has two defining characteristics.  (1) it has remained unchanged from the day of its launch and (2) no one cares.  A Google search of the phrase Fidelity  +”Thinking Big” yields a total of six blog mentions in 30 days.

Morningstar: Thinking “Belt Tightening”

Crain’s Chicago Business reports that Morningstar lost a $12 million contact with its biggest investment management client.  TransAmerica Asset Management had relied on Morningstar to provide advisory services on its variable annuity and fund-of-funds products.  The newspaper reports that TransAmerica simplified things by hiring Tim Galbraith, Morningstar’s director of alternative investments, to handle the work in-house.  TransAmerica provided about 2% of Morningstar’s revenue last year.

Given the diversity of Morningstar’s global revenue streams, most reports suggest this is “unfortunate” rather than “terrible” news, and won’t result in job losses.  (source: “Morningstar loses TransAmerica work,” March 27 2012)

James Wang is not “the greatest investor you’ve never heard of”

Investment News gave that title to the reclusive manager of the Oceanstone Fund (OSFDX) who was the only manager to refuse to show up to receive a Lipper mutual fund award.  He’s also refused all media attempts to arrange an interview and even the chairman of his board of trustees sounds modestly intimidated by him.  Fortune has itself worked up into a tizzy about the guy.

Nonetheless, the combination of “reclusive” and an outstanding five-year record still don’t add up to “the greatest investor you’ve never heard of.”  Since you read the Observer, you’ve surely heard of him, repeatedly.  As I’ve noted in a February 2012 story:

  1. the manager’s explanation of his investment strategy is nonsense.  He keeps repeating the magic formula: IV = IV divided by E, times E.  No more than a high school grasp of algebra tells you that this formula tells you nothing.  I shared it with two professors of mathematics, who both gave it the technical term “vacuous.”  It works for any two numbers (4 = 4 divided by 2, times 2) but it doesn’t allow you to derive one value from the other.
  2. the shareholder reports say nothing. The entire text of the fund’s 2010 Annual Report, for example, is three paragraph.  One reports the NAV change over the year, the second repeats the formula (above) and the third is vacuous boilerplate about how the market’s unpredictable.
  3. the fund’s portfolio turns over at triple the average rate, is exceedingly concentrated (20 names) and is sitting on a 30% cash stake.  Those are all unusual, and unexplained.

That’s not evidence of investing genius though it might bear on the old adage, “sometimes things other than cream rise to the top.”

Two Funds and Why They’re Really Worth Your While

Each month, the Observer profiles between two and four mutual funds that you likely have not heard about, but really should have.

Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies (MASNX): Litman Gregory has assembled four really talented teams (order three really talented teams and “The Jeffrey”) to manage their new Alternative Strategies fund.  It has the prospect of being a bright spot in valuable arena filled with also-ran offerings.

Tributary Balanced, Institutional (FOBAX): Tributary, once identified with First of Omaha bank and once traditionally “institutional,” has posted consistently superb returns for years.  With a thoughtfully flexible strategy and low minimum, it deserves noticeably more attention than it receives.

The Best of the Web: A Week of Podcasts

Our second “Best of the Web” feature focuses on podcasts, portable radio for a continually-connected age.  While some podcasts are banal, irritating noise (Junior went through a month’s worth of Advil to screen for a week’s worth of podcasts), others offer a rare and wonderful commodity: thoughtful, useful analysis.

In “A Week of Podcasts,” Junior and I identified four podcasts to help power you through the week, three to help you unwind and (in an exclusive of sorts) news of Chuck Jaffe’s new daily radio show, MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe.

We think we’ve done a good and honest job but Junior, especially, would like to hear back from readers about how the feature works for you and how to make it better, about sites we’ve missing and sites we really shouldn’t miss.  Drop us a line, we read and appreciate everything and respond to as much as we can.

Briefly noted . . .

Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income (SFGIX), managed by Andrew Foster, is up about 3% since its mid-February launch.  The average diversified emerging markets fund is flat over the same period.  The fund is now available no-load/NTF at Schwab and Scottrade.  For reasons unclear, the Schwab website (as of 3/31/12) keeps saying that it’s not available.  It is available and the Seafarer folks have been told that the problem lies in Schwab’s website, portions of which only update once a month. As a result, Seafarer’s availability may not be evident until April 11..

On the theme of a very good fund getting dramatically better, Villere Balanced Fund (VILLX) has reduced its capped expense ratio from 1.50% to 0.99%.  While the fund invests about 60% of the portfolio in stocks, its tendency to include a lot of mid- and small-cap names makes it a lot more volatile than its peers.  But it’s also a lot more rewarding: it has top 1% returns among moderate allocation funds for the past three-, five- and ten-year periods (as of 3/30/2012).  Lipper recently recognized it as the top “Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Growth Fund” of the past three and five years.

Arbitrage Fund (ARBFX) reopened to investors on March 15, 2012. The fund closed in mid-2010 was $2.3 billion in assets and reopened with nearly $3 billion.  The management team has also signed-on to subadvise Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies (MASNX), a review of which appears this month.

Effective April 30, 2012, T. Rowe Price High Yield (PRHYX, and its advisor class) will close to new investors.  Morningstar rates it as a Four Star / Silver fund (as of 3/30/2012).

Neuberger Berman Regency (NBRAX) has been renamed Neuberger Berman Mid Cap Intrinsic Value and Neuberger Berman Partners (NPNAX) have been renamed Neuberger Berman Large Cap Value.  And, since there already was a Neuberger Berman Large Cap Value fund (NVAAX), the old Large Cap Value has now been renamed Neuberger Berman Value.  This started in December when Neuberger Berman fired Basu Mullick, who managed Regency and Partners.  He was, on whole, better than generating high volatility than high returns.  Partners, in particular, is being retooled to focus on mid-cap value stocks, where Mullick tended to roam.

American Beacon announced it will liquidate American Beacon Large Cap Growth (ALCGX) on May 18, 2012 in anticipation of “large redemptions”. American Beacon runs the pension plan for American Airlines.  Morningstar speculates that the termination of American’s pension plan might be the cause.

Aberdeen Emerging Markets (GEGAX) is merging into Aberdeen Emerging Markets Institutional (ABEMX). Same managers, same strategies.  The expense ratio will drop substantially for existing GEGAX shareholders (from 1.78% to 1.28% or so) but the investment minimum will tick up from $1000 to $1,000,000.

Schwab Premier Equity (SWPSX) closed at the end of March as part of the process of merging it into Schwab Core Equity (SWANX).

Forward is liquidating Forward International Equity Fund, effective at the end of April.  The combination of “small, expensive and mediocre” likely explains the decision.

Invesco has announced plans to merge Invesco Capital Development (ACDAX) into Invesco Van Kampen Mid Cap Growth (VGRAX) and Invesco Commodities Strategy (COAAX) Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy (BRCAX).  In both mergers, the same management team runs both funds.

Allianz is merging Allianz AGIC Target (PTAAX) into Allianz RCM Mid-Cap (RMDAX), a move which will bury Target’s large asset base and modestly below-average returns into Mid-Cap’s record of modestly above-average returns.

ING Equity Dividend (IEDIX) will be rebranded as ING Large Cap Value.

Lord Abbett Mid-Cap Value (LAVLX) has changed its name to Lord Abbett Mid-Cap Stock Fund at the end of March.

Year One, An Anniversary Celebration

With this month’s issue, we celebrate the first anniversary of the Observer’s launch.  I am delighted by our first year and delighted to still be here.  The Internet Archive places the lifespan of a website at 44-70 days.  It’s rather like “dog years.”  In “website lifespan years,” we are actually celebrating something between our fifth and eighth anniversary.  In truth, there’s no one we’d rather celebrate it with that you folks.

Highlights of a good year:

  • We’ve seen 65,491 “Unique Visitors” from 103 countries. (Fond regards to Senegal!).
  • Outside North America, Spain is far and away the source of our largest number of visits.  (Gracias!)
  • Junior’s steady dedication to the site and to his “Best of the Web” project has single-handedly driven Trinidad and Tobago past Sweden to 24th place on our visitor list.  His next target: China, currently in 23rd.
  • 84 folks have made financial contributions (some more than once) to the site and hundreds of others have used our Amazon link.   We have, in consequence, ended our first year debt-free, bills paid and spirits high.  (Thanks!)
  • Four friends – Chip, Anya, Accipiter, and Junior – put in an enormous number of hours behind the scenes and under the hood, and mostly are compensated by a sense of having done something good. (Thank you, guys!)
  • We are, for many funds, one of the top results in a Google search.  Check PIMCO All-Asset All-Authority (#2 behind PIMCO’s website), Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (#4), RiverPark Short Term High Yield (#5), Matthews Asia Strategic Income (#6), Bretton Fund (#7) and so on.

That reflects the fact that we – you, me and all the folks here – are doing something unusual.  We’re examining funds and opportunities that are being ignored almost everywhere else.  The civility and sensibility of the conversation on our discussion board (where a couple hundred conversations begin each month) and the huge amount of insight that investors, fund managers, journalists and financial services professionals share with me each month (you folks write almost a hundred letters a month, almost none involving sales of “v1agre”) makes publishing the Observer joyful.

We have great plans for the months ahead and look forward to sharing them with you.

See you in a month!

 

Manager changes, March 2012

By Chip

Because bond fund managers, traditionally, had made relatively modest impacts of their funds’ absolute returns, Manager Changes typically highlights changes in equity and hybrid funds.

Fund Out with the old In with the new Dt
American Beacon Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (ATPIX) William Quinn Seven comanagers remain. 3/12
Ariel Appreciation(CAAPX) Matthew Sauer is leaving to join Lateef Investment Management and perhaps help with the erratic Lateef Fund (LIMAX) John Rogers and Timothy Fidler will remain as comanagers. 3/12
BlackRock High Yield Bond (BHYAX) No one, but … Charlie McCarthy is a new comanager. 3/12
Buffalo China (BUFCX) No one, but … Yulin Li has been added as a comanager. 3/12
Davis Financial (RPFGX) Charles Cavanaugh is stepping down. Lead manager, Kenneth Feinberg, remains. 3/12
Dreyfus/Standish Fixed Income (SDFIX) Peter Vaream is out The rest of the comanagers remain
Fidelity Advisor Stock Selector Mid Cap (FMCDX) Comanager Michael Valentine Rayna Lesser 3/12
Fidelity Inflation-Protected Bond (FINPX) No one, but … Franco Castagliuolo joins the team. 3/12
Fidelity Series Inflation-Protected Bond Index (FSIPX) No one, but … Alan Bembenek will be a new comanager. 3/12
Fidelity Series Small Cap Opportunities No one, but … Eirene Kontopoulos joins the team 3/12
Fidelity Stock Selector Small Cap (FDSCX) No one, but … Eirene Kontopoulos joins the team 3/12
Fidelity Total International Equity (FTIEX) Robert von Rekowsky Ashish Swarup joins the existing managers, Jed Weiss and Alexander Zavratsky 3/12
GE Institutional Small-Cap Equity (GSVIX) Jeffrey Schwartz Marc Shapiro joins the remaining subadvisors 3/12
Hartford Advisers (ITTAX) Steven Irons Karen Grimes 3/12
Henderson International Opportunities(HFOAX) Iain Clark will no longer manage as of April 4, 2012. The eight other managers remain. 3/12
Invesco High Income Municipal (AHMAX) Gerard Pollard and Franklin Ruben The current comanagers remain. 3/12
Invesco Van Kampen High Yield Municipal (ACTHX) Gerard Pollard and Franklin Ruben The current comanagers remain. 3/12
JPMorgan Intrepid America (JIAAX) Christopher Blum, who has been appointed the head of global equity solutions at JP Morgan’s asset management division. Dennis Ruhl and Pavel Vaynshtok will be added as comanagers. 3/12
JPMorgan Intrepid Growth (JIGAX) Christopher Blum Dennis Ruhl and Pavel Vaynshtok 3/12
JPMorgan Intrepid Multi Cap (JICAX) Christopher Blum Dennis Ruhl 3/12
JPMorgan Intrepid Value (JIVAX) Christopher Blum Dennis Ruhl and Pavel Vaynshtok 3/12
Lazard U.S. Equity Value (LEVIX) Nicholas Sordoni, J. Richard Tutino Jr, and Ronald Temple as of May 31, 2012 Christopher Blake will join the management team 3/12
Legg Mason Batterymarch Global Equity (CFIPX) Adam Petryk is no longer the manager, but remains at the firm. No one new. 3/12
Legg Mason Batterymarch International Equity(LGIEX) Adam Petryk No one new. 3/12
Legg Mason Batterymarch S&P 500 Index (SBSPX) Adam Petryk No one new. 3/12
Legg Mason Batterymarch U.S. Small Cap Equity (LMSIX) Adam Petryk No one new. 3/12
Legg Mason Western Asset Strategic Income (SDSAX) No one, but … Christopher Orndoff joined the management team 3/12
Loomis Sayles Small Cap Value (LSCRX) No one, but … Jeffrey Schwartz joins Joseph Gatz as a comanager 3/12
MFS Massachusetts Investors Trust (MITTX), which has been around since 1924 and has seen several management changes in that time Nicole Zatlyn, comanager since 2005, steps down. Comanager, Kevin Beatty, will be joined by Ted Maloney 3/12
Natixis U.S. Multi-Cap Equity (NEFSX) No one, but … Jeffrey Schwartz joins Joseph Gatz as a comanager 3/12
Northern Enhanced Large Cap (NOLCX) Joseph Wolfe The other managers remain. 3/12
Northern Large Cap Value (NOLVX) Stephen Atkins The other managers remain. 3/12
Nuveen Tradewinds Global All-Cap (NWGAX) David Iben leaves to join Vinik Asset Management Emily Alejos and Drew Thelen will take over. 3/12
Nuveen Tradewinds Global Flexible Allocation(NGEAX) Iben and Isabel Satra are . . . yes. You guessed it, off to Vinik Asset Management Analyst Ariane Mahler will join the remaining manager, Michael Hart 3/12
Nuveen Tradewinds Global Resources(NTGAX) Iben, Crespo, and Gregory Padilla all going to Vinik Asset Management There hasn’t been a new manager announced yet. 3/12
Nuveen Tradewinds International Value(NAIGX) Alberto Jimenez Crespo follows Iben to Vinik Asset Management Peter Boardman remains as the sole manager. 3/12
Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities (NVOAX) David Iben leaves to join Vinik Asset Management Two analysts, Joann Barry and Rowe Michels, will take the helm. 3/12
Old Mutual Focused (OBFVX), now re-named Touchstone Focused Longtime manager Jerome Heppelmann is being replaced as part of Touchstone’s acquisition of 17 Old Mutual Funds. Fort Washington Investment Advisors 3/12
Principal Large Cap Value III (PLVIX) No one, but … Todd Williams joined the team 3/12
Principal Small Cap Value II (PPVIX) No one, but … Joseph Chi, Jed Fogdall, and Henry Gray joined the team 3/12
Prudential High-Yield (PBHAX) No one, but … Ryan Kelly has been added as portfolio manager. 3/12
Scout Global Equity Fund William B. Greiner has resigned as CIO of Scott Investments and is no longer lead manager. Gary Anderson and James A. Reed II will serve as co-lead portfolio managers. 3/12
Sentinel Balanced(SEBLX) No one, but . . . Dan Manion will become the lead manager, joined by Jason Doiron. 3/12
Sentinel Government Securities (SEGSX) No one, but . . . Jason Doiron joins. 3/12
Sentinel International Equity (SWRLX). Stacey Ho is stepping down The rest of the team remains. 3/12
Sentinel Short Maturity Government(SSIGX) No one, but . . . Jason Doiron joins. 3/12
Sentinel Sustainable Growth Opportunities (WAEGX), re-named as Sentinel Sustainable Mid Cap Opportunities on March 29, 2012. Comanagers Elizabeth Bramwell and Kelli Hill are stepping down, Bramwell for retirement. Betsy Pecor, Carole Hersam, and Matthews Spitznagle 3/12
Wells Fargo Global Opportunities(EKGAX) Francis Claro has left the firm. A small fund shop now owned by Wells Fargo, EverKey. 3/12
Westwood Balanced (WHGBX) Susan Byrne.  Byrne really has had a remarkable life, by the way. The rest of the team remains in place with Byrne as a mentor and guide. 3/12
Westwood Large Cap Value (WHGLX) Susan Byrne The rest of the team remains in place with Byrne as a mentor and guide. 3/12

 

Tributary Balanced (FOBAX), April 2012

By David Snowball

This profile has been updated. Find the new profile here. 

Objective and Strategy

Tributary Balanced Fund seeks capital appreciation and current income. They allocate assets among the three major asset groups: common stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. Based on their assessment of market conditions, they will invest 25% to 75% of the portfolio in stocks and convertible securities, and at least 25% in bonds. The portfolio is typically 70-75 stocks from small- to mega-cap and turnover is about half of the category average.  They currently hold about 50 bonds.

Adviser

Tributary Capital Management.  At base, Tributary is a subsidiary of First National Bank of Omaha and the Tributary funds were originally branded as the bank’s funds.  Tributary advises seven mutual funds, as well as serving high net worth individuals and institutions.  As December 31, 2011, they had about $1.1 billion under management.

Managers

Kurt Spieler and John Harris.  Mr. Spieler is the lead manager and the Managing Director of Investments for the advisor.  In that role, he develops and manages investment strategies for high net worth and institutional clients. He has 24 years of investment experience in fixed income, international and U.S. equities including a stint as Head of International Equities for Principal Global Investors and President of his own asset management firm.  Mr. Harris is a Senior Portfolio Manager for the advisor.  He joined Tributary in 2007 and this fund’s team in 2010.  He has 18 years of investment management experience including analytical roles for Principal Global Investors and American Equity Investment Life Insurance Company.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

Mr. Spieler has over $100,000 in the fund.  Mr. Harris has $10,000 in the fund, an amount limited by his “an interest in a more aggressive stock allocation.”

Opening date

August 6, 1996

Minimum investment

$1000, reduced to $100 for accounts opened with an automatic investing plan.

Expense ratio

1.22%, after a minor waiver, on $59 million in assets (as of 2/29/12).

Comments

Tributary Balanced does what you want to “balanced” fund to do.  It uses a mix of stocks and bonds to produce returns greater than those associated with bonds with volatility less than that associated with stocks.   Morningstar’s “investor returns” research supports the notion that this sort of risk consciousness is probably the most profitable path for the average investor to follow.

What’s remarkable is how very well, very quietly, and very consistently Tributary achieves those objectives.  The fund has returned 7.6% per year for the past decade, 50% better than its peer group, but has taken on no additional risk to achieve those returns.  Its Morningstar profile, as of 3/28/12, looks like this:

 

Rating

Returns

Risk

Returns relative to peers

Past three years

* * * * *

High

Average

Top 1%

Past five years

* * * * *

High

Average

Top 1%

Past ten years

* * * * *

High

Average

Top 2%

Overall

* * * * *

High

Average

n/a

Its Lipper rankings, as of 3/28/12, parallel Morningstar’s:

 

Total return

Consistency

Preservation

Past three years

* * * * *

* * * * *

* * * *

Past five years

* * * * *

* * * * *

* * * *

Past ten years

* * * * *

* * * * *

* * *

Overall

* * * * *

* * * * *

* * * *

We commissioned an analysis of the fund by the folks at Investment Risk Management Systems (a/k/a FundReveal), who looked at daily volatility and returns, and concluded “FOBAX is a well-managed, safe, low risk Moderate Allocation fund.

  • Its low volatility, high return performance is visible in cumulative 5 year, latest cumulative one year and latest quarter analysis results.
  • Its Persistence Rating (PR) is 60, indicating that it has maintained an “A-Best” rating over most of last 20 quarters.
  • This is also evident from the rolling 20 quarters Risk-Return ratings which have been between “A-Best” and “C-Less Risky.”

Our bottom line opinion is that FOBAX seems to be one of the better managed funds in the Moderate Allocation class.”

SmartMoney provides a nice visual representation of the risk-return relationships of funds.  Below is the three-year scatterplot for the balanced fund universe.  In general, an investor wants to be as near the upper-left corner (universe returns, zero risk) as possible.  There are three things to notice in this graph:

  1. Three funds form the group’s northwest boundary; that is, three that have a distinguished risk-return balance.  They are Tributary, Vanguard Balanced Index (VBINX) which is virtually unbeatable and Calvert Balanced (CSIFX) which provides middling returns with quite muted risk.
  2. The only funds with higher returns (Fidelity Asset Manager 85% FAMRX and T. Rowe Price Personal Strategy Growth TRSGX than Tributary have far higher stock allocations (around 85%), far higher volatility and took 70% greater losses in 2008.
  3. Ken Heebner is sad.  His CGM Mutual (LOMMX) is the lonely little dot in the lower right.

To what could we attribute Tributary’s success? Mr. Spieler claims three sources of alpha, or positive risk-adjusted returns.  They are:

  1. They have a flexible asset allocation, which is driven by a macro-economic assessment, profit analysis and valuation analysis.  In theory the fund might hold anywhere between 25-75% in equities though the actual allocation tends to sit between 50-70%.
  2. Stock selection tends to be opportunistic.  The portfolio tilts toward growth stocks and the managers are particularly interested in emerging markets growth stocks.  The neat trick is they pursue their interest without investing in foreign stocks by looking for US firms whose earnings benefit from emerging markets operations.  Pricesmart PSMT, for example, has 100% of its operations in South America while Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH is a play on outsourcing to South Asia.  They’re also agnostic as to market cap.  Measured by the percentage of earnings from international sources, Tributary offers considerable international exposure.  They etimate that 48% of revenues of for their common stock holdings are from international sales. That compares to an estimated 42% of international sales for the S&P 500.
  3. Fixed-income selection is sensitive to duration targets and unusual opportunities. About 20% of the portfolio is invested in taxable municipal bonds, such as the Build America Bonds.  Those were added to the portfolio when irrational fear gripped the fixed income market and investors were willing to sell such bonds as a substantial discount in order to flee to the safety of Treasuries.  Understanding that the fundamentals behind the bonds were solid, the managers snatched them up and booked a solid profit.

The managers are also risk-conscious, which is appropriate everywhere and especially so in a balanced fund.  The stock portfolio tends to be sector-neutral, and the number of names (typically 70-75) was based on an assessment of the amount of diversification needed for reasonable risk management.

Bottom Line

The empirical record is pretty clear.  Almost no fund offers a consistently better risk-return profile.  While it would be reassuring to see somewhat lower expenses or high insider ownership, Tributary has clearly earned a spot on the “due diligence” list for any investor interested in a hybrid fund.

Fund website

Tributary Funds.  FundReveal’s complete analysis of the fund is available on their blog.

[cr2012]

Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies (MASNX), April 2012

By David Snowball

This profile has been updated. Find the new profile here. 

Objective and Strategy

MASNX seeks to achieve long-term returns with lower risk and lower volatility than the stock market, and with relatively low correlation to stock and bond market indexes.  Relative to “moderate allocation” hybrid funds, the advisor’s goals are less volatility, better down market performance, fewer negative 12‐month losses, and higher returns over a market cycle. Their strategy is to divide the fund’s assets up between four teams, each pursuing distinct strategies with the whole being uncorrelated with the broad markets.  They can, in theory, maintain a correlation of .50 relative to the US stock market.

Adviser

Litman Gregory Fund Advisors, LLC, of Orinda, California. At base, Litman Gregory (1) conceives of the fund, (2) selects the outside management teams who will manage portions of the portfolio, and (3) determines how much of the portfolio each team gets.  Litman Gregory provides these services to five other funds (Equity, Focused Opportunities, International, Smaller Companies and Value). Collectively, the funds hold about $2.4 billion in assets.

Manager(s)

Jeremy DeGroot, Litman Gregory’s chief investment officer gets his name on the door as lead manager but the daily investments of the fund are determined bythree teams, and Jeff Gundlach. There’s a team from FPA led by Steve Romick, a team from Loomis Sayles led by Matt Eagan, a team from Water Island Capital led by John Orrico.  And Jeff Gundlach.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

None yet reported.

Opening date

September 30, 2011.

Minimum investment

$1000 for regular accounts, $500 for IRAs.  The fund’s available, NTF, through Fidelity, Scottrade and a few others.

Expense ratio

1.74%, after waivers, on $230 million in assets (as of 2/23/12).  There’s also a 2% redemption fee for shares held fewer than 180 days.  The expense ratio for the institutional share class is 1.49%.

Comments

Investors have, for years, been reluctant to trust the stock market.  Investors have pulled money for pure equity funds more often than they’ve invested in them.  An emerging conventional wisdom is that domestic bonds are at the end of a multi-decade bull market.  Investors have sought, and fund companies have provided, a welter of “alternative” funds.  Morningstar now tracks 262 funds in their various “alternative” categories.  Sadly, many such funds are bedeviled by a combination of untested management (the median manager tenure is just two years), opaque strategies and high expenses (the category average is 1.83% with a handful charging over 3% per year).

All of which makes MASNX look awfully attractive by comparison.

The Litman Gregory folks started with a common premise: “In the years ahead, we believe there will be mediocre returns and higher volatility from stocks, and low returns from bonds . . . [we sought] “alternative” strategies that we believe are not highly dependent on tailwinds from stocks and bonds to generate returns.”  Their search led them to hire four experienced fund management teams, each responsible for one sleeve of the fund’s portfolio.

Those teams are:

Matt Eagan and a team from Loomis-Sayles who are charged with implementing an Absolute-Return Fixed-Income which centers on high-yield and international bonds, with the prospect of up to 20% equities.  Their goal is “positive total returns over a full market cycle.”

John Orrico and a team from Water Island Capital, who are charged with an arbitrage strategy.  They manage the Arbitrage Fund (ARBFX) and target returns “of at least mid-single-digits with low correlation” to the stock and bond markets.  ARBFX averages 4-5% a year with low volatility; in 2008, for instance, is lost less than 1%.

Jeffrey Gundlach and the DoubleLine team, who will pursue an “opportunistic income” strategy.  The goal is “positive absolute returns” in excess of an appropriate broad bond index.  Gundlach uses this strategy in at least one hedge fund, a closed-end fund, DoubleLine Core Fixed Income (DLFNX) and Aston and RiverNorth funds for which he’s a subadvisor.

Steve Romick and a team from FPA, who will seek “contrarian opportunities” in pursuit of “equity-like returns over longer periods (i.e., five to seven years) while seeking to preserve capital.”   Romick manages FPA Crescent (FPACX) which wins almost universal acclaim (Five Star, Gold, LipperLeader) for its strong returns, risk consciousness and flexibility.

Litman Gregory picked these teams on two grounds: the fact that the strategies made sense taken as a portfolio and the fact that no one executed the strategies better than these folks.

The strategies are sensible, as a group, because they’re uncorrelated; that is, the factors which drive one strategy to rise or fall have little effect on the others.  As a result, a spike in inflation or a rise in interest rates might disadvantage one strategy while allow others to flourish. The inter-correlations between the four strategies are low (though “how low” will vary depending on market conditions).  Litman anticipates a correlation between the fund and the stock market in the range of 0.5, with a potentially-lower correlation to the bond markets.  That’s far lower than the two-year correlation between U.S. large cap stocks and, say, emerging markets stocks, REITs, international real estate or commodities.

The record of the sub-advisors speaks for itself: these really do represent the “A” team in the “alternatives without idiocy” space.  That is, these folks pursue sensible, comprehensible strategies that have worked over time.  Many of their competitors in the “multi-alternative” category pursue bizarre and opaque strategies (“hedge fund index replicant” strategies using derivatives) where the managers mostly say “trust us” and “pay us.”  On whole, this collection is far more reassuring.

Can Litman Gregory pull it off?  That is, can they convert a good idea and good managers into a good fund?  Likely.  First, the other Litman funds have been consistently solid if somewhat volatile performers.

 

Current Morningstar

Morningstar Risk

Current Lipper Total Return

Current Lipper Preservation

Equity

* *

Above Average

* * *

* * *

Focused Opportunities

* * *

Above Average

* * * * *

* * * *

International

* * * *

Above Average

* * * *

* *

Smaller Companies

* * *

Above Average

* * * *

* *

Value

* *

Above Average

* * *

* * *

(all ratings as of 3/30/2012)

Second, Alternative Strategies is likely to fare better than its siblings because of the weakness of its peer group.  As I note above, most of the “multi-alternative” funds are profoundly unattractive and there are no low-cost, high-performance competitors in the space as there is in domestic equities.

Third, the fund’s early performance is promising.  We commissioned an analysis of the fund by the folks at Investment Risk Management Systems (a/k/a FundReveal), who looked at daily volatility and returns, and concluded:

Despite its short existence, the daily returns produced by the fund can indicate the effectiveness of fund investment decision-making . . . We have analyzed the fund performance for 126 market days, using the last 2 rolling quarters of 63 market days each. The daily FundReveal information makes it possible to get an idea of how well the fund is being managed. . . Based on the data available, MASNX is a safe fund which maintains very low risk (volatility). This is important in turbulent and uncertain markets. It is one of the top ranking funds in the safety category. Very few funds have higher ADR (average daily return) and lower Volatility than MASNX.

IRMS and I both add the obvious caveat: it’s still a very limited dataset, reflects the fund’s earliest stages and its performance under a limited set of market conditions.

The final question is, could you do better on your own?  That is, could you replicate the strategy by simply buying equal amounts of four mutual funds?  Not quite.  There are three factors to consider.  First, the portfolios wouldn’t be the same.  Litman has commissioned a sort of “best ideas” subset from each of the managers, which will necessarily distinguish these portfolios from their funds’.  Second, the dynamics between the sleeves of your portfolio – rebalancing and reweighting – wouldn’t be the same.  While each portfolio has a roughly-equal weight now, Litman can move money both to rebalance between strategies and to over- or under-weight particular strategies as conditions change.  Few investors have the discipline to do that sort of monitoring and moving.  Finally, the economics wouldn’t be the same.  It would require $10,000 to establish an equal-weight portfolio of funds (the Loomis minimum is $2500) and Loomis carries a front load that’s not easily dodged.  Assuming a three-year holding period and payment of a front load, the portfolio of funds would cost 1.52% while MASNX costs 1.74%.

Bottom Line

In a February Wall Street Journal piece, I nominated MASNX as one of the three most-promising new funds released in 2011.  In normal times, investors might be looking at a moderate stock/bond hybrid for the core of their portfolio.  In extraordinary times, there’s a strong argument for looking here as they consider the central building blocks for their strategy.

Fund website

Litman Gregory Masters Alternative StrategiesThe fund’s FAQ is particularly thorough and well-written; I’d recommend it to anyone investigating the possibility of investing in the fund.  IRMS provides the more-complete discussion of MASNX on their blog.

2013 Q3 Report

Fund Facts

[cr2012]

April 2012 – A Week of Podcasts

By Junior Yearwood

Do you remember the transistor radio?  For teens, it was an essential accessory – passport to hot tunes and popularity.  For adults, it was a passport of another sort – to the news of the day, world events, baseball contests, talk shows and a chance to learn something useful.  Static-y and limited to a handful of stations.

Just as transistors have been succeeding by microchips, a third of all adults and 20% of smartphone users listen to radio via the internet.  Half of them take radio in the form of podcasts, portable snippets of radio that they can listen to as they unwind at home (71%) or try to make a commute more pleasant and productive (45%).  Some of us (*cough* Snowball *cough*) even use them to make time at the gym more bearable.

In this month’s Best of the Web we will be presenting four business/financial podcasts – plus, as a bonus, a fifth podcast that you really want but can’t have yet (fingers crossed, Chuck).  Each, we believe, stands out from the pack. With so many choices out there we decided to narrow our choices to candidates that met five criteria:

  1. they had to be from a respected source that was trying to inform you, and not just sell you some pet theory or subscription stock-alert system. That alone eliminated a multitude of podcasts.
  2. they had to be both informative and engaging, since we were looking for resources you’d want to turn to week after week.
  3. their content had to be reasonably up to date, which we defined as “at least weekly” (except for Bill Gross).

In addition (4) there had to be a solid accompanying website and (5) perhaps most importantly the podcast had to be available for multiple platforms. So regardless of your portable device you will be able to download and transfer any one of our picks to your handheld and listen on the go wherever you are.

For each podcast we will give you a general overview of the content and highlight specific areas that we think will interest you. We will also have some info on the host and give you our overall opinion of the presentation.

We would like to thank everyone for the great support shown to last month’s feature and encourage you to contact me with suggestions, tips and advice.

Working through the week

The Week Ahead from The Economist

Mondays, like rainy days, are sometimes difficult to manage. It’s the start of the week, a week of ups and downs challenges and hopefully a few pleasant surprises. You need to be sharp and focused and you need to be on top of your game. Keeping up to date with current affairs that affect the global economy can help you do just that. And The Week Ahead podcast from The Economist is a simple, convenient and quick way to quickly bring yourself up to date with events around the globe that may affect the overall economy. The podcast is released every Friday (and you could also listen to it then) and is available free via The Economist’s website or as an iTunes podcast. The parent publication is a globally respected brand with a circulation that exceeds 1.5 million (combined print and digital), and offers reasoned and balanced analysis of important current events. The week ahead is hosted by executive editor Daniel Franklin. There is also a secondary presenter, last week’s being US editor Christopher Lockwood.

Style

The program is a conversation between the presenters.  It’s more typical to get a wide-ranging analysis than a set of pat conclusions.  The style of the program is reminiscent of a BBC program, the presentation is professional and sharp and has a serious yet conversational feel.

Substance

The Week Ahead covers major events around the world that can have an effect on the global economy. The coverage spans a variety of areas from political to social. They cover four stories in a ten minute show.  The stories for March 23rd were the US Supreme Court’s hearing on healthcare legislation, the Pope’s visit to Cuba, the upcoming meeting of major developing nations collectively referred to as the BRICS and a looming general strike in Spain.

Bottom Line

This podcast is an excellent way to start your week. It offers a concise overview of current events worldwide that may have ripple effects on the global economy and is short enough to listen while having a quick bite or on a short commute. At around ten minutes it is however long enough to provide thoughtful analysis of major events, and give useful information that can assist in keeping you on top of your game.  We think it’s well worth a listen.

Planet Money from National Public Radio

I had a friend a long time ago. One day I was attempting to explain something to him. I can’t remember what it was but it had to be complicated because to this day I can remember his response after suffering through a few minutes of my attempt.  “Take that action and break it down into fractions.” His words had the effect of lightening the mood and we all had a good laugh while I proceeded to take his advice, using terms that were simple and easy to understand. Planet Money takes a similar approach, taking serious and complicated topics that deal with the economy as a whole (both domestic and global), and breaking them down into bite sized tidbits that are easy to digest and assimilate. NPR has been, and remains a well-respected source of information for the public covering a wide variety of topics and subject areas. In 2009 it was estimated that over 27 million people listened to at least one of the 25 plus programs that they produce. The Planet Money podcast is available on Tuesdays and Fridays and is hosted by David Kestenbaum. Co-hosts include Chana Joffee-Walt and Jacob Goldstien.

Style

Planet Money uses simple language and a light conversational format to make complicated issues and topics accessible to a mainstream audience. They explain their standards this way:

We have two rules for ourselves: 1. Everything has to be interesting (and, preferably, fun or funny or poignant or somehow grabby). 2. Everything should be economically smart, but not economically dull.

By and large this approach works. Difficult issues are explained in a common sense way that listeners of all levels will readily understand. What makes the podcast stand out is the fact that the “average Joe” approach to the conversation is married to recognition that Joe is himself smart and interested.  They get under the hood serving up a fair amount of detail and technical information making it both an easy and satisfying listen.

Substance

Each podcast (both Tuesday and Friday) covers one main topic and is broken down into two segments. Section one is a brief commentary titled The Planet Money Indicator and section two is the main feature. The indicator is a number that is used to highlight something of importance that relates to the main feature. The number for Tuesday, March 20th was 35. That represented the 35% increase in housing starts year over year that could be seen as an indicator that demand is once again stimulating supply in the housing market. The main feature of the podcast for Friday 23rd dealt with The History of Income Tax in America (what do four wars, one dying Supreme Court justice and a duck have in common? You need to listen to find out). Tuesday 20th was on the crisis in housing and featured precious teen Willow Tufano, a seemingly typical Florida kid who saved $6000 that she made selling “junk” then convinced her mother to buy a house with her.

Bottom line

Let’s take the Planet Money whole and break it into fractions. It’s one part accessible, one part informative and two parts fun. Why not have a listen?  You know you are curious about the duck.

PIMCO Investment Outlook from Pacific Investment Management Company

Pacific Investment Management Company is currently the world’s largest bond investment firm with $1.3 trillion ($1,300,000,000,000) in assets under management.  It was founded in 1971 by Bill Gross who is their co-chief investment officer and the author of this podcast.  Gross manages 16 funds, including that quarter-trillion dollar PIMCO Total Return fund.  Collectively, his funds have nearly $300 billion in assets under management.  That’s roughly the size of the entire Greek economy.   If he and his investors were a country, they’d rank as the 34th-largest economy on earth.  Unlike the other shows we’ve profiled, Gross’s podcast is monthly, and focuses on a single issue each month.

Style

William H. “Bill” Gross is perhaps best described as idiosyncratic. His podcasts reflect his underlying nature.  They’re sometimes dour, frequently rambling and unpredictable but always very well informed, incisive and occasionally funny, with good use of metaphors and sometimes dry wit. 

Substance

Investment Outlook is a monthly feature that deals with different aspects of investment and finance. It is a well written monologue that is presented by one of the most respected individuals in investing globally. It is essentially a presentation of opinion but you could do far worse than considering Gross, given both the enormous analytic resources at his disposal and the power of his actions to move markets. The March issue dealt with defensive strategies in investing. It makes the argument that now may be the time to focus on defensive strategies at least as much if not more than offensive investing strategies. The audio podcast is supplemented by a pdf of the full text of the audio. The full transcript is also available on the website itself. The audio podcast is released on the 11th or 12th of each month but the online text transcript and pdf for April are available now.

Bottom Line

Gross presents a podcast that is a bit different but in this case different is good. The program presents a clear exposition of his opinions on a variety of topics that specifically deal with investing and finance. His tendency to use metaphors and his occasional attempts at humor makes his podcasts interesting and nicely balances out his sometimes dour delivery.  You can find his podcasts here.

Marketplace Money from American Public Media

By Friday, most of us have had just about enough of Bernanke, Goldman and the VIX.  Collectively the Marketplace programs reach 9 million listeners each week, the largest audience of any business or economics program on radio or television.  Marketplace Money, hosted since 2006 by journalist and Northwestern alum Tess Vigeland, tries to help listeners translate the week’s leading economic stories into practical terms with a nice balance of facts, common sense and opinion. The weekly, hour-long program offers advice and information to help people better manage, save and spend money.  A typical 50 minute episode presents a comprehensive feature that is subdivided into individual story segments.

Style

Marketplace Money is one of the best produced and presented podcasts online across all categories. It is a rare case of journalism at its best. The presentation is sharp and the pacing of the individual segments is near perfect. It’s a podcast that you can be equally comfortable with during your morning commute, at the gym or at home in front of your computer.

Substance

The weekly podcast features in depth analysis of a featured topic. The program is broken into individual segments. Each segment can be treated as a separate story but each one deals with an aspect of the overall topic. The March 21st podcast dealt with what has come to be known as “The Great Recession.”  It presents seven individual stories that show us the personal side of the ongoing event, the overall theme being that perhaps the worst is behind us and America is coming back.

Bottom line

Practical take on the news, useful in understanding the economics that affects your household more than what’s up with your portfolio.  A refreshing piece of quality journalism that you can access at your convenience.


On to the weekend!

It should not be hard for you to stop sometimes and look into the stains of walls, or ashes of a fire, or clouds, or mud or like places, in which… you may find really marvelous ideas. (Leonardo da Vinci, Notebooks, circa 1480)

We don’t consider the weekend simply a time to veg or, worse, to sit and feel guilty about all the work that you’re not getting done.  With a little thought, your weekend can be the most productive and most enjoyable part of your week.  It’s a time to stop listening to the same incessant drone that everyone else is listening to, to look in new places, to look in new ways, and to laugh.  Sam Anderson, New York Magazine’s book critic put it this way In Defense of Distraction:

Focus is a paradox—it has distraction built into it. The two are symbiotic; they’re the systole and diastole of consciousness. Attention comes from the Latin “to stretch out” or “reach toward,” distraction from “to pull apart.” We need both . . . The truly wise mind will harness, rather than abandon, the power of distraction.

Since I’m more of a hard news and politics fan, I asked our leisure-loving leader for his recommendations. David thinks he’s found three that Leonardo would have enjoyed on his weekends.

Freakonomics

Freakonomics starts with two simple premises: that a lot of our everyday assumptions about how the world works are often terribly wrong and that an economist’s habits of thought are useful in seeing where we went wrong and what might be right.  Freakonomics, the book that explored bizarre baby names and the rigged real estate market, sold four million copies.  SuperFreakonomics (drunk walks and global warming anyone?) is creeping toward another four million.  It’s entertaining and provocative.  Their March 29, 2012 show “begins with this simple, heretical question: Does the President of the United States really matter as much as we believe, and on which dimensions?” and ends by examining the truism

… hitchhiking is terribly, horribly, ridiculously dangerous. But how true is that truism? It’s true that hitchhiking has declined in America, but why? Was it really as dangerous as we believed? And even if so, what other factors were at play?  You’ll hear a variety of hitchhiking stories, including from Levitt and me. We also talk to baseball-data wizard and crime writer Bill James, who says our risk aversion to hitchhiking makes it more dangerous, and transportation scholar Alan Pisarski, who looks at how hitchhiking can inform future transportation policy. And we wonder: would a society that encourages hitchhiking be, on balance, a better society?

You can read, and listen, here

A Way with Words

A Way with Words describes itself as a “show about words, language, and how we use them.  Funny, informative, and fast-paced ….”  Language both reflects and affects the way we think.  The show is the very antithesis of those miserable dry grammar lectures we endured in school.  It plays with language, from word and phrase origins and old sayings to regional dialects and curious family expressions.   It has an intensely loyal audience (including the gym-bound Snowball) who enjoy listening to smart, funny people (hosts Martha Barnette, Grant Barrett and their callers) who are curious about language.

Their March 10, 2012 show looks at the origins of a bunch of financial phrases (“taking a bath” or “taking a haircut” on an investment), at why politicians “suspend” their campaigns, the disturbing prospect that you leave a “vaporwake” in your trail as you walk and the question “What is it about lifelike robots and the humanoid characters in movies like The Polar Express that feels so disturbing?”  Robotics scientist Masahiro Mori dubbed this phenomenon “the uncanny valley.” Grant and Martha discuss the notion and their website offers links to articles on Slate, Wired, and on the NPR blog.

You can read show summaries, and listen, here.  They also host a fairly active discussion forum that covers a lot of ground and offers a lot of leads.

Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me

Billed as “the oddly informative news quiz,” the show features host Peter Sagal, four panelists (drawn from a pool of 11 including P.J. O’Rourke, Roy Blount Jr., Amy Dickinson of The Chicago Tribune and Roxanne Roberts of The Washington Post) and one guest (Nora Ephron, Patrick Stewart, chef Rick Bayless) for the “Not My Job” segment.  The material for the show is drawn from the week’s news but goes well beyond the ability of a Jon Stewart or David Letterman monologue to leave you informed about (but not depressed by) the week’s news.  The fact that it’s often laugh out loud funny is an additional charm of it.  After quoting a Romney staffer’s celebration of primary wins in American Samoa, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands – whose residents are citizens of the US but are not permitted to vote in the presidential election – the host observed, “the vote may not get Romney nearer to being president but does make him well-positioned for another job: volcano god.”

They have a rich website with audio of the shows and bunches of follow-up features.



An Update: MoneyLife is Here!

You don’t expect a financial podcast to cause you to laugh out loud. Financial podcasts are supposed to be serious and predictable, even the “fun” ones have a certain level of formality. It seems that Chuck didn’t get the memo, and for that we should all be thankful. MoneyLife is a witty, straight talking financial podcast, that will inform and entertain you, and most likely leave you wanting more. Sometimes irreverent (no-pants Fridays) sometimes slapstick (hilarious audio “special effects”), but always professional and informative, the podcast is released daily Monday through Friday. Here is what the MoneyLife website has to say about the show’s host:

“MoneyLife host Chuck Jaffe is senior columnist for MarketWatch. His three weekly columns are syndicated nationally, and his “Your Funds” column is the most widely read feature on mutual fund investing in America. In 2009, Chuck was named to MutualFundWire’s list of the 40 Most Influential People in Fund Distribution, the only journalist ever to make the list.”

You can listen to it online or download it for free at the show’s website, or find it on iTunes.

Style

The show has an easy conversational style, it is a relaxed, yet professional presentation of straight talking financial opinion and fact. Jaffe mixes his A-list talent with “B” movie camp to wonderful effect. A smooth operator who falls easily into the role of laid back master of ceremonies, and knows when to fade out the humor and ask the tough questions that we want answered.

Substance

The daily hour long podcast is content heavy. It contains one feature interview (the big interview), which the host describes as “swimming in the brain fluid” of a financial expert, commentary by Chuck Jaffe and several secondary segments. The secondary segments change daily, with certain sections only available on specific days. The segments include buy and sell of the week, personal finance tip of the week, market call, economy watch, weird financial news, ETF of the week, technical difficulties, survey says, and hold it or fold it. The different segments are presented in the form of a conversation between the host and a guest expert. Regular guests include Tom Lydon, editor and publisher of ETF Trends; Greg McBride CFA, Vice President, Senior Financial Analyst, for Bankrate.com; Robert Powell, president of Unison, LLC, a communications and consulting firm and Executive Producer of PBS’ More Than Money; and Charles Rotblut, a vice president with the American Association of Individual Investors.

The Big Interview for Tuesday, June 26th featured financial author Jonathan Davis, Founder and chairman of Independent Investor,  and discussed the investment philosophy of Sir John Templeton

Bottom Line

If I was stranded on an island and allowed only one financial podcast, this might very well be it. The show combines a large serving of financial facts and information, with a diverse and sometimes contradictory, range of expert views and opinions. Chuck may be naturally funny, but make no mistake, the entertainment is merely the dessert to the main course.

April 2012 Funds in Registration

By David Snowball

Black Select Long/Short

Black Select Long/Short will seek long-term capital appreciation over a full market cycle.  They invest both long and short in a focused, global portfolio of mid- to large-cap companies. Gary Black, president of the adviser, will manage the fund.  This is the same Gary Black who was president, CEO and/or chief investment officer of Janus from 2004-2009. During his watch, at least 15 equity managers left Janus and one won a multi-million dollar suit against the company.  Despite a war on the star managers, he’s credited with an important reorganization of the place.  Before that he was chief investment officer for Goldman Sachs’ global equities group. Minimum initial investment will be $2500. Expenses for the Investor share class are capped at 2.25%.

Braver Tactical Equity Opportunity Fund

Braver Tactical Equity Opportunity Fund will seek capital appreciation with low volatility and low correlation to the broad domestic equity markets.  The plan is to both time the market (they may go 100% to cash in order to avoid market declines) and to rotate among sectors using ETFs.  It will be managed by a team led by Andrew Griesinger, Braver’s chief investment officer. The team uses the same strategy in their separate accounts.  Information in the prospectus shows those accounts trailing the S&P500 and a hedge fund benchmark for the trailing year, three years and period since inception (though leading over the trailing five years).  They provide no volatility data. $1000 minimum initial investment.  Expenses capped at 1.5%.

Global X

Global X Top Hedge Fund Equity Holdings, Top Value Guru Holdings, Top Activist Investor Holdings, Listed Hedge Funds ETFs will all invest in indexes designed to track the activities of the mythically talented.  They will all be managed by Global X’s top two executives, Bruno del Ama and Jose C. Gonzalez. Expenses not yet set.

ProShares Listed Private Equity and ProShares Merger Arbitrage

ProShares Listed Private Equity and ProShares Merger Arbitrage ETFs.  With great conviction, ProShares reports: “ProShares Merger Arbitrage (the “Fund”) seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that track the performance of the [            ] Merger Arbitrage Index (the “Index”). The Index was created by [            ] (the “Index Sponsor”).” Trans: we’re going to track some index (we don’t  know which), created by somebody (we don’t know who).  Trust us, this is a compelling idea whose time has come.  Alexander Ilyasov will manage the ETFs.  Expenses not yet set.

Reinhart Mid Cap Private Market Value Fund

Reinhart Mid Cap Private Market Value Fund will seek long-term capital appreciation by purchasing a diversified portfolio of mid-cap stocks which are selling at a 30% discount to their “true intrinsic value.”  Brent Jesko, Principal and Senior Portfolio Manager of the Adviser, is the Fund’s lead portfolio manager.  $5000 minimum initial investment.  Expenses not yet set.

T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund

T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund will pursue high current income, with a secondary goal of capital appreciation.  The plan is to buy bonds, primarily dollar-denominated and primarily intermediate-term, that are issued by companies that are located or listed in, or conduct the predominant part of their business activities in, emerging markets. Michael J. Conelius will manage the fund. $2500 investment minimum for regular accounts, $1000 for various tax-advantaged products. Expenses are capped at 1.15%.  They intend to launch on May 24, 2012.

USAA Cornerstone Funds

USAA Cornerstone Funds (Conservative, Moderately Conservative, Aggressive, Equity) will each invest in other funds.  Each has a set asset allocation, ranging from 20 – 100% equities.  Two existing funds will be rebranded as Moderate and Moderately Aggressive to round out the collection.  Each will be team managed, with John P. Toohey and Wasif A. Latif, Vice President of Equity Investments being present on all of the teams.  Expenses vary, but are uniformly low.  The minimum initial investment is $3000, reduced to $500 for accounts established with automatic investment plans. They anticipate launch in June 2012.

 

GRT Value (GRTVX), March 2012

By David Snowball

Update: This fund has been liquidated.

Objective

The fund’s investment objective is capital appreciation, which they hope to obtain by investing primarily in undervalued small cap stocks.  Small caps are defined as those comparable to those in the Russell 2000, whose largest stocks are about $3.3 billion.  They can also invest up to 10% in foreign stocks, generally through ADRs.  There’s a comparable strategy – the “GRT Value Strategy – Long only U.S. Equity Strategy” – used when they’re investing in private accounts. They describe the objective there in somewhat more interesting terms.  In those accounts, they want to achieve “superior total returns while” – this is the part I like – “minimizing the probability of permanent impairment of capital.”

Adviser

GRT Capital Partners.  GRT was founded in 2001 by Gregory Fraser, Rudolph Kluiber and Timothy Krochuk.  GRT offers investment management services to institutional clients and investors in its limited partnerships.  As of 09/30/2011, they had about $315 million in assets under management.  They also advise the GRT Absolute Return (GRTHX) fund.

Managers

The aforementioned Gregory Fraser, Rudolph Kluiber and Timothy Krochuk.  Mr. Kluiber is the lead manager.  From 1995 to 2001, he ran State Street Research Aurora (SSRAX), a small cap value fund which is now called BlackRock Aurora.  Before that, he was a high yield analyst and assistant manager on State Street Research High Yield.  Mr. Fraser managed Fidelity Diversified International from 1991 to 2001.  Mr. Krochuk managed Fidelity TechnoQuant Growth Fund from 1996 to 2001 and Fidelity Small Cap Selector fund in 2000 and 2001.  The latter two “work closely with Mr. Kluiber and play an integral part in generating investment ideas and making recommendations for the Fund.” Since 2001, they’ve worked together on limited partnerships and separate accounts forGRT Capital. All three managers earned degrees from Harvard, where Mr. Kluiber and Mr. Fraser were roommates.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

As of 07/31/2011, Messrs Kluiber and Fraser each had $500,000 – $1,000,000 in the fund while Mr. Krochuk had more than $1 million.

Opening date

May 1, 2008.

Minimum investment

$2,500 for regular accounts, $500 for retirement accounts and $250 for spousal IRAs.

Expense ratio

1.30%, after waivers, on assets of $120 million, unchanged since the fund’s launch.  There’s also a 2% redemption fee for shares held fewer than 14 days.

Comments

Investors looking to strengthen the small cap exposure in their portfolios owe it to themselves to look at GRT Value.  It’s that simple.

On the theme of “keeping it simple,” I’ll add just two topics: what do they do? And why should you consider them?

What do they do?

GRT Value follows a long-established discipline.  It invests, primarily, in undervalued small company stocks.  Because of a quirk in data reporting, the portfolio might seem to have more growth stock exposure than it does.  The manager highlights three sorts of investments:

Turnaround Companies – those “that have declined in value for business or market reasons, but which may be able to make a turnaround because of, for instance, a renewed focus on operations and the sale of assets to help reduce debt.” Because indexes might be reconstituted only once or twice a year, some of the fund’s holdings remain characterized as “growth stocks” despite a precipitous decline in valuation.

Deep Value Companies – those which are cheap relatively to “the value of their assets, the book value of their stock and the earning potential of their business.”

Post-Bankruptcy Companies – which are often underfollowed and shunned, hence candidates for mispricing.

The fortunes of these three types of securities don’t move in sync, which tends to dampen volatility.

As with some of the Artisan teams, GRT uses an agricultural analogy for portfolio construction.  They have “a ‘farm team’ investment process [in which] positions often begin relatively small and increase in size as the Adviser’s confidence grows and the original investment thesis is confirmed.”  The manager’s cautious approach to new positions and broad diversification (188 names, as of 10/31/11), work to mitigate risk.

The managers are pretty humble about all of this: “There is no magic formula,” they write.  “It simply comes down to experienced managers, using well-established risk guidelines for portfolio construction” (Annual Report, 07/31/11).

Why should you consider them?

They’re winners.  The system works.  High returns, muted risk.

GRTValue seems to be an upgraded version of State Street Research Aurora, which Mr. Kluiber ran with phenomenal success for six years.  Morningstar’s valedictory assessment when he left the fund was this:

Kluiber, the fund’s manager since its 1995 inception, built it into a category standout during his tenure. In fact, the fund gained an average of 28.9% per year from March 1995 throughApril 30, 2001, while its average small-cap value peer gained 15.5%.

The same analyst noted that the fund’s risk scores were low and that “[m]anagement’s willingness to go farther afield in small-value territory has been a boon over the long haul. For instance, management doesn’t shy away from investing in traditionally more growth-oriented sectors, such as technology, if valuations and fundamentals” are compelling.  The article announcing his departure concluded, “Kluiber had built a topnotch record since Aurora’s 1995 inception. The fund’s trailing three- and five-year returns for the period endingApril 27, 2001, rank in the top 5% of the small-cap value category;Auroraalso boasted relatively low volatility and superior tax efficiency.”

Hmmm . . . high returns, low risk, high tax efficiency all maintained over time.  Those seek like awfully promising attributes in your lead manager.

Since 2004, the trio have been managing separate accounts using the strategies embodied in both Aurora andGRTValue.  They modestly trailed the Russell 2000 index in their first year of operation, then substantially clubbed it in the following three.  That reflects a focus on getting it right, every day. “We’re just grinders,” Mr. Krochuk noted.  “We come in every day and do our jobs together.”  In baseball terms, they were hoping to make contact and hit lots of singles rather than counting on swinging for the fences in pursuit of rare, spectacular gains.

Since 2008, GRT Value has continued the tradition of clubbing the competition.  At this point, the story gets muddied by Morningstar’s mistake.  Morningstar categorizes GRTVX as a mid-cap blend fund.  It’s not.  Never has been.  The portfolio is more than 80% small- and micro-cap.  The fund’s average market cap – $790 million – is less than half of the average small blend fund’s.  It’s below the Russell 2000 average.  That miscategorization throws off all of Morningstar’s peer assessments for star rating, relative returns, and relative risk.  Judged as a small-blend or small-value fund, they’re actually better than Morningstar’s five-star rating implies.

GRTVX has substantially outperformed its peers since inception: $10,000 invested at the fund’s opening has grown to $13,200, compared to $11,800 at its average peer

GRTVX has outperformed its benchmark in down markets: it has lost less, or actually registered gains, in 11 of the 14 months in which the index declined (from 01/09 – 02/12).  That’s consistent both with Mr. Kluiber’s risk-consciousness and his long-term record.

GRTVX has a consistently better risk-return profile than the best small blend funds. Morningstar analysts have identified five best-of-the-best funds in the small blend category.  Those are Artisan Small Cap Value (ARTVX, closed), Bogle Small Growth (BOGLX, the retail shares), Royce Special (RYSEX, closed), Vanguard Small Cap Index (NAESX, the retail shares) and Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund (VTMSX, the Admiral Shares).  Using Fund Reveal’s fine-grained risk and return data, GRTVX offers a better risk-return profile – over the trailing one, two and three year periods – than any of them.  The only fund (RYSEX) with somewhat-lower volatility has substantially lower returns.  And the only fund with better average daily returns (BOGLX) has substantially higher volatility.

Bottom Line

Nothing in life is certain, but the prospects forGRT Value’s future are about as close as you’ll get.  The managers have precisely the right experience.  They have outstanding, complementary track records.  They have an organizational structure in which they have a sense of control and commitment.  Its three year record, however measured, has been splendid.

Fund website

The fund’s website is virtually nonexistent. There’s a little more information available at the parent site, but not all that much.

[cr2012]

Matthews Asia Strategic Income (MAINX) – February 2012, revised March 2012

By David Snowball

Objective and Strategy

MAINX seeks total return over the long term with an emphasis on income. The fund invests in income-producing securities which will include government, quasi-governmental and corporate bonds, dividend-paying stocks and convertible securities (a sort of stock/bond hybrid).  The fund may hedge its currency exposure, but does not intend to do so routinely.  In general, at least half of the portfolio will be in investment-grade bonds.  Equities, both common stocks and convertibles, will not exceed 20% of the portfolio.

Adviser

Matthews International Capital Management. Matthews was founded in 1991.  As of December 31, 2011, Matthews had $15.3 billion in assets in its 13 funds.  On whole, the Matthews funds offer below average expenses. Over the past three years, every Matthews fund has above-average performance except for Asian Growth & Income (MACSX). They also publish an interesting and well-written newsletter on Asian investing, Asia Insight.

Manager(s)

Teresa Kong is the lead manager.  Before joining Matthews in 2010, she was Head of Emerging Market Investments at Barclays Global Investors (now BlackRock) and responsible for managing the firm’s investment strategies in Emerging Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America. In addition to founding the Fixed Income Emerging Markets Group at BlackRock, she was also Senior Portfolio Manager and Credit Strategist on the Fixed Income credit team.  She’s also served as an analyst for Oppenheimer Funds and JP Morgan Securities, where she worked in the Structured Products Group and Latin America Capital Markets Group.  Kong has two co-managers, Gerald Hwang, who for the past three years managed foreign exchange and fixed income assets for some of Vanguard’s exchange-traded funds and mutual funds, and Robert Horrocks, Matthews’ chief investment officer.

Management’s Stake in the Fund

Every member of the team is invested in the fund, but the extent – typically substantial at Matthews – is not yet disclosed.

Opening date

November 30, 2011.

Minimum investment

$2500 for regular accounts, $500 for IRAs.  The fund’s available, NTF, through Fidelity, Vanguard, Scottrade and a few others.

Expense ratio

1.0%, after waivers, on $19 million in assets (as of 2/23/12).  That’s a 40 basis point decline from opening expense ratio. There’s also a 2% redemption fee for shares held fewer than 90 days.

Comments

With the Federal Reserve’s January 2012 announcement of their intent to keep interest rates near zero through 2014, conservative investors are being driven to look for new sources of income.  Ms. Kong highlights a risk the bond investors haven’t previously wrestled with: shortfall risk.  The combination of microscopic domestic interest rates with the slow depreciation of the U.S. dollar (she wouldn’t be surprised at a 2% annual loss against a basket of foreign currencies) and the corrosive effects of inflation, means that more and more “risk-free” fixed-income portfolios simply won’t meet their owners’ needs.  Surmounting that risk requires looking beyond the traditional.

For many investors, Asia is a logical destination.  Three factors support that conclusion:

  1. Asian governments and corporations are well-positioned to service their debts.  On whole, debt levels are low and economic growth is substantial.  Haruhiko Kuroda of the Asian Development Bank projected (in late January 2012) that Asian economies — excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand — to grow by around 7% in 2012, down from about 7.5% in 2011 and 9% in 2010.  France, by contrast, projects 0.5% growth, the Czech Republic foresees 0.2% and Germany, Europe’s soundest economy, expects 0.7%.
    This high rate of growth is persistent, and allows Asian economies to service their debt more and more easily each year.  Ms. Kong reports that Fitch (12/2011) and S&P (1/2012) both upgraded Indonesian debt, and she expects more upgrades than downgrades for Asia credits.
  2. Most Asian debt supports infrastructure, rather than consumption.  While the Greeks were borrowing money to pay pensions, Asian governments were financing roads, bridges, transport, water and power.  Such projects often produce steady income streams that persist for decades, as well as supporting further growth.
  3. Most investors are under-exposed to Asian debt markets.  Bond indexes, the basis for passive funds and the benchmark for active ones, tend to be debt-weighted; that is, the more heavily indebted a nation is, the greater weight it has in the index.  Asian governments and corporations have relatively low debt levels and have made relatively light use of the bond market.

Ms. Kong illustrated the potential magnitude of the underexposure.  An investor with a global diversified bond portfolio (70% Barclays US Aggregate bond index, 20% Barclays Global Aggregate, 10% emerging markets) would have only 7% exposure to Asia.  However you measure Asia’s economic significance (31% of global GDP, rising to 38% in the near future or, by IMF calculations, the source of 50% of global growth), even fairly sophisticated bond investors are likely underexposed.

The European debt crisis, morphing into a banking crisis, is making bank loans harder to obtain.  Asian borrowers are turning to capital markets to raise cash.  Asian blue chip firms issued $14 billion in bonds in the first two months of 2012, in a development The Wall Street Journal described as a “stampede” (02/23/12). The market for Asian debt is becoming larger, more liquid and more transparent.  Those are all good things for investors.

The question isn’t “should you have more exposure to Asian fixed-income markets,” but rather “should you seek exposure through Matthews?”  The answer, in all likelihood, is “yes.”   Matthews has the largest array of Asia investment products in the U.S. market, the deepest analytic core and the broadest array of experience.  They also have a long history of fixed-income investing in the service of funds such as Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX).   Their culture and policies are shareholder-friendly and their success has been consistent.

Asia Strategic Income will be their first income-oriented fund.  Like FPA Crescent (FPACX) in the U.S. market, it has the freedom range across an entity’s capital structure, investing in equity, debt, hybrid or derivative securities depending on which offers the best returns for the risk.  The manager argues that the inclusion of modest exposure to equities will improve the fund’s performance in three ways.

  1. They create a more favorable portfolio return distribution.  In essence, they add a bit more upside and the manager will try “to mitigate downside by favoring equities that have relatively low volatility, high asset coverage and an expected long term yield higher than the local 10 year Treasury.”
  2. They allow the fund to exploit pricing anomalies.  There are times when one component of a firm’s capital structure might be mispriced by the market relative to another. .  Ms. Kong reports that the fund bought the convertible shares of an “Indian coal mining company.  Its parent, a London-listed natural resource company, has bonds outstanding at the senior level.  At the time of purchase, the convertibles of the subsidiary offered higher yield, higher upside than the parent’s bonds even though the Indian coal mining had better fundamentals, less leverage, and were structurally senior since the entity owns the assets directly.”
  3. They widen the fund’s opportunity set.  Some governments make it incredibly difficult for foreigners to invest, or invest much, in their bonds.  Adding the ability to invest in equities may give the managers exposure to otherwise inaccessible markets.

Unlike the indexes, MAINX will weight securities by credit-worthiness rather than by debt load, which will further dampen portfolio risk.  Finally, the fund’s manager has an impressive resume, she comes across as smart and passionate, and she’s supported by a great organization.

Bottom Line

MAINX offers rare and sensible access to an important, under-followed asset class.  The long track record of Matthews’ funds suggests that this is going to be a solid, risk-conscious and rewarding vehicle for gaining access to that class.  Despite the queasiness that conservative investors, especially, might feel about investing what’s supposed to be their “safe” money overseas, there’s a strong argument for looking carefully at this as a supplement to an otherwise stagnant fixed-income portfolio.

Fund website

Matthews Asia Strategic Income

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