Investors are forever willing to panic themselves at the prospect that their managers have taken Stupid Pillstm. The presumed signs of ingestion: any period of relative underperformance, pretty much without regard to absolute performance, the brevity of the period, its cause or the appropriateness of the peer group.
The automatic urge: running away, either to cash or to an investment with eye-catching recent returns.
Which is, by Continue reading
“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor.”
English proverb sometimes attributed to FDR
There is a tendency among investors, especially younger ones, to extrapolate their assumptions about investments far off into the future, beyond just a normal year or two. Once something has started working – growth rates, earnings increases, share price growth – expectations become unrealistic AND unsustainable. We have seen that in the last few years about the Continue reading
The managers seek long-term growth of capital favorable to its benchmarks with lower risk – specifically companies with 12-15% earnings growth potential for at least three years. They typically hold 40-60 SMid stocks whose valuations are attractive relative to their growth prospects. SMid caps have market capitalizations between $250 million and $12 billion, and are generally within the range of those in the Russell 2500 Growth Index.
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We’ve added Trend Metrics to the MultiSearch tool on MFO’s Premium site.
Trend Metrics signal when funds are performing above or below their 3- and 10-month simple moving averages (SMAs). If the Trend Metric is positive, the strategy suggests staying invested. If negative, exiting the position. The strategy has proved effective at mitigating severe drawdown, especially during periods of longer term trends, like experienced Continue reading
We monthly report on manager changes, which most commonly is simply swapping out one member of a management team for another. Those changes are sometimes deeply consequential, and we try to highlight those, but mostly they’re marginal to the funds. This month, though, several of the changes are especially important to the folks involved. Montag & Caldwell Growth has announced the departure of Ron Canakaris after a quarter century at the helm. The BP Capital Twinline funds announced the tragic death of manager Anthony Riley. Columbia High Yield Bond manager Jennifer Ponce de Leon is Continue reading
The imminence of Halloween reveals itself in the deadened thud as the walking dead move toward the graveyard. Summer saw a curious lull in fund liquidations and manager changes both, but the end of summer is ending that reprieve. We’ve tracked 33 obituaries for this issue. A few were high-performing funds that couldn’t attract attention. There seems to be a pattern in the remainder: lots of funds designed to hedge against market volatility, lots of funds designed to hedge against rising prices and a few more funds with exposure to emerging markets. A fusty old curmudgeon might note that liquidations in a category peak at the moment of maximum Continue reading
Dear friends,
Thanks for your patience. The end of July and beginning of August brought a bunch of challenges.
This month’s issue has a lot of interesting content; just not quite so much as we’d planned. With luck, we’ll shift the vast bulk of it to September.
MFO Premium offers a ridiculous wealth of information for a Continue reading
“If you attack stupidity you attack an entrenched interest with friends in government and every walk of public life, and you will make small progress against it.”
Samuel Marchbanks
Those of us who were value investors and running money back at the beginning of 2000, remember what a horrible time it was. For some years value had been lagging growth in performance. We were routinely told, either in emails or other communications from our investors, that our style of investing was never coming back, that we were dinosaurs who hadn’t recognized that we were extinct, and that technology stocks were the place to be as they represented the Continue reading
Ferguson Metrics help identify funds with equity-like returns but volatility that makes them “easier for investors to own through turbulent times,” describes Brad Ferguson of Halter Ferguson Financial, a fee-only independent financial advisor based in Indianapolis. They serve as a starting point for delving deeper, but also as litmus test when salespeople offer him funds to include in the firm’s portfolios.
There are three main metrics in Brad’s Continue reading
On May 30, 2018, AMG launched AMG TimesSquare Global Small Cap (TSYNX / TSYIX), the fifth AMG fund sub-advised by TimesSquare Capital Management. TimesSquare is a growth-equity firm that works primarily with institutional clients. They manage about $18 billion in assets.
The fund is managed by Continue reading