Things I think I think, early 2021 version

By David Snowball

I’ve been pondering things at year’s end, from elections and intransigence to the possibilities of functional government and transcendence. I’m not at all (not even 1%) sure of what 2021 will bring, and yet I need to plan for it anyway.

So, here’s a sort of think-aloud experiment in which I just share what I’ve learned in the past couple of months and where it might (or might not) lead in the year ahead. I’ll divide the essay into two sections: “stakes in the ground” represent the Continue reading →

21st Century champions

By David Snowball

The second decade of the 21st century has just closed. The third decade promises turbulence in the near-term and disappointment in the longer term. A host of factors drives that pessimism. Interest rates are near-zero and likely to remain there, according to the chairman of the Fed, for years. That means that money market funds will return zero only if their sponsors waive all of their operating expenses. It also means that the long-term returns on US bonds may fall below zero because their advisers are not predisposed to offer their services for free. Investors, in response, are poured into equities and have done so using Continue reading →

As I Age

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I won’t grow up,
I don’t want to wear a tie.
Or a serious expression
In the middle of July.
And if it means I must prepare
To shoulder burdens with a worried air,
I’ll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up
Not me,
Not I,
Not me!

– Peter Pan

Several readers have asked that I expand on a comment I made about aging a few months ago. This is a hard article for me to write because it means looking at investing from a different perspective. The typical American works 30 to 50 years before retiring and must save enough to last another 20 to 30 years, or more. This means saving diligently and investing wisely while Continue reading →

Managers with some serious explaining to do

By David Snowball

There are about 7,000 mutual funds. Of those, 3,800 have been around for 20 years or more. Of these long-lived funds, over 1500 have more than a billion in assets.

You’d think “large and long-lived” were synonymous with “successful.” Not so much. A few of the funds have been consistently top-notch, and the vast majority have been miscellaneously mediocre.

But only twelve have managed to combine huge asset bases with decades of bottom-tier performance. They are

The Roll Call of the Wretched.

Continue reading →

Funds in Registration

By David Snowball

The Securities and Exchange Commission, by law, gets between 60 and 75 days to review proposed new funds before they can be offered for sale to the public. Fund companies anxious to have a new fund up and running by December 31st need to have it in the hopper by the third week in October at the latest. This month brings a far more sedate pace of launches with 14 new products in the pipeline, most of which will launch in February.

That said, the new funds are being offered by some absolutely A-tier advisers, which might explain their willingness to launch at Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Towpath Technology

By David Snowball

On December 31, 2020, Oelschlager Investments launched the Towpath Technology Fund. The fund will be managed by Mark Oelschlager. The manager anticipates owning 25-40 tech stocks. The plan is to focus on firms with long-term, durable business advantages such as “barriers to entry, pricing power, network effects, limited competition, [or] lock-in effects.” His discipline is much more valuation-sensitive than tech managers generally pursue, and he focuses strongly on the durability of free cash flow metrics. This strategy is the same one the manager used at Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Wasatch Greater China

By David Snowball

On November 30, 2020, Wasatch Global Investors launched Wasatch Greater China Fund (WAGCX/WCCCX). The “Greater” part signals the inclusion of firms located in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as in the PRC proper. The fund will feature an all-cap portfolio of 35-50 names. This is Wasatch’s second country-specific fund, after the five-star Wasatch Emerging India Fund (WAINX), which launched Continue reading →

Manager Changes, December 2020

By Chip

Fund managers matter, sometimes more than others. As more teams adopt the mantra, “we’re a team,” if only as window-dressing, more than more manager changes are reduced to “one cog out, one cog in.” Nonetheless, we know that losing funds with new managers tend to outperform losing funds that hold onto their teams, while the opposite is true for winning funds. Strong funds with stable teams and stable assets outperform strong funds facing instability (Bessler et al., 2010). Because of the great Continue reading →

Briefly Noted

By David Snowball

Updates

Bill Gross must be very sad today. Mr. Gross has been involved in an ugly dispute with a neighbor. As part of that dispute, Mr. Gross played The Gilligan’s Island theme, loudly and continuously, night after night. The neighbor complained. In court. Mr. Gross’s partner, Amy Schwartz, testified to loving the “Gilligan’s Island” theme but denied playing it loud or Continue reading →

December 1, 2020

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

The waiting is, mostly, done. The American people have spoken, though I suspect that activists in both major political parties are disappointed and frustrated by what they heard. For better and worse, Republicans did not receive a second term in the White House. For better and worse, Democrats did not enjoy “the blue wave” that they anticipated.

And so we are left where we so often are: in a muddle. The control of the senate, once “the world’s greatest deliberative body” (reputedly President James Buchanan’s judgment), lies in two impending elections in Georgia. Politicians of all stripes woke on the morning of November 4th to ask the all-important question, “how’s our fund-raising for 2022 coming? Are we on track?” At least one candidate is openly mulling the timing of his announcement of his 2024 presidential bid. Miscellaneous state legislators continue to Continue reading →