Federal Reserve Rate Hikes – The Next Nine Months

By Charles Lynn Bolin

2023 Sleeping Bears in Waiting

We are in a classic late stage of the business cycle with the Federal Reserve raising rates to reduce demand in order to control inflation. What is different this time is that the inflation is likely to be higher for longer because it is a global issue resulting from a combination of factors, including COVID-related supply chain disruptions and related stimulus, an extended period of low-interest rates and easy monetary policy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that, in addition to being a tragic loss of lives, also disrupted supply chains. I look at the base case of the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds (FF) target rate in November and December and holding the rate relatively constant next year. The next six to nine months are key to determining Continue reading →

Worst Year Ever

By Charles Boccadoro

All fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium today, 31 October, Halloween 2022. We used Lipper’s Friday data drop to get an early peek … and today markets seemed tame enough, so numbers should be pretty close to month’s end.

October was a decent one for equity funds, especially value. The Dow was up an extraordinary 14%. But still Continue reading →

Vela Large Cap Plus I (VELIX)

By Dennis Baran

Let’s be blunt!

Why bury the lead?

“90% of everything is crap.”

 

 

 

 

That’s Ric Dillon, the fund’s PM, quoting Theodore Sturgeon (1918-85), a science-fiction author frustrated by a prevailing thought of his time– that works of science fiction are universally bad.

His defense of his chosen field, argued in a New York University lecture hall, can be boiled down to a simple argument. Continue reading →

Briefly Noted . . .

By TheShadow

Aristotle Capital Management is to buy Pacific Asset Management, the specialist credit manager with about $20 billion AUM from Pacific Life. Afterward completion, Aristotle will be renamed Aristotle Pacific Capital.

Lazard US Convertibles Portfolio is in registration. The principal investment strategy is to invest in convertible securities economically tied to the United States. The portfolio managers/analysts will be Arnaud Brillois, Andrew Raab, Emmanuel Naar, and Zoe Chen. Open share total annual portfolio operating Continue reading →

October 1, 2022

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Our hearts go out to people around the world whose lives are being wracked by forces beyond their control, whether that’s the madness of dictators or the ravages spawned by the world’s increasingly unstable climate. Those folks represent needs far beyond the annoyance caused by our collective loss of $9 trillion in the stock market’s ongoing revaluation.

Those of us only indirectly affected by such tragedies have three imperatives:

  1. Help those in need now. No, you can’t fix everything but you can do some good. Charity Navigator offers credible guidance whether you’re concerned about the brave souls in Ukraine or the stunned survivors of Hurricane Ian.
  2. Turn our energy, resolve, and creativity to preventing their reoccurrence.
  3. Celebrate the daily beauty and joy of life. Really. Notice the good, not just the bad. That will leave you both more resilient and more able to manage adversity when it presents itself.

Continue reading →

Do not be afraid: Advice to investors and other friends

By David Snowball

An impending civil war in the US. A planet on fire. The worst drought in 1500 years. The prospect of Putin using nuclear wars in Europe. A market decline that might be accelerating rather than slowing. Inflation at 40-year highs. Crazy people storming the Capitol. Voter restrictions. Politicians increasingly willing to assert control over women’s lives. Continue reading →

Rebalancing, Portfolio Restructuring, Tax Loss Harvesting

By Devesh Shah

Down years in the financial markets are a heavy burden on asset holders. (We presume you’re noticed.) Holding assets through down years is the price we pay for earning long-term risk premia embedded in assets. Years like this are particularly challenging because the current downswing feels so very abnormal: it’s a correction in the financial markets (normal but painful) in which both investment grade bonds and speculative tech stocks are falling sharply and simultaneously (utterly abnormal and still painful), and the trajectory of the decline Continue reading →

Shining the Light into Black Box Funds

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Source: PublicDomainPictures.net

A reader on the Mutual Fund Observer Discussion Board asked “how do you feel about putting monies into funds that have a somewhat ‘black box’ dynamic to them…yes, they explain their positions but sometimes I wonder, how safe of an investment are some of these funds?”

For those not familiar with black box investing, Investopedia explains: “a black box is a device, system, or object which produces useful Continue reading →